Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 041913
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
313 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...REMAINING WARM AND HUMID...

.DISCUSSION...
A PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WITH A TREND TOWARD PRECIPITATION-FREE AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RATCHET UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY...AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND COOLER.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-050815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
313 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-050815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
313 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.12 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-050815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
313 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-050815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
313 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.14 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 77-82 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-050815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
313 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.15 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG



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