Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FNUS53 KJKL 291945
FWFJKL

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND TRACK
INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY SEND A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A
SOAKING RAIN OF AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.

KYZ068-079-083-084-300815-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROADHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...BURNSIDE...
SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY
345 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................35 DECREASING TO 6 LATE.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......30 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.00 - 0.05 INCHES.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG WITH A
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15-20 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....45.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (44600 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 41 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.20 - 0.35 INCHES.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................4.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................37 DECREASING TO 7 LATE.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.20 - 0.30 INCHES.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................4.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....179.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (179100 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................49 INCREASING TO 91 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.30 - 0.45 INCHES.


$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-119-300815-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
INEZ
345 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST LATE.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................44 DECREASING TO 7 LATE.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......20 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.00 - 0.05 INCHES.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20-25 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....13.
VENT RATE...........POOR (13000 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................16.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.20 - 0.30 INCHES.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................4.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................13.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.30 - 0.40 INCHES.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................5.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20
                    TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....149.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (149500 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................46 INCREASING TO 82 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.


$$

KYZ069-080-085>088-110>118-120-300815-
JACKSON-LAUREL-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...LONDON...CORBIN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
345 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST LATE.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................53 DECREASING TO 5 LATE.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......30 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.00 - 0.05 INCHES.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....32.
VENT RATE...........MARGINAL (32300 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................11 INCREASING TO 29 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.20 - 0.35 INCHES.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................4.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................22 DECREASING TO 10 LATE.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.20 - 0.45 INCHES.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................5.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20
                    TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....166.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (167900 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................49 INCREASING TO 92 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.30 - 0.50 INCHES.

$$

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

$$
GREIF


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