Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 201345
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Blackwater Marslands...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
845 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over eastern Canada builds south across the region
today, providing light north winds and a mostly sunny sky. The
high temperature will be a little cooler than Sunday with minimum
relative humidity values increasing just a bit as well.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North 4-8 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 3000-3200 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............15  17  18  19  19  20  20  22
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................58  60  61  62  62  62  61  60
RH..................59  55  50  46  44  44  45  49
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft).......2.1 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.2
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.....15  15  14  13  13  13  12  10
LVORI...............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.................38  42  42  40  40  41  40  26
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....27  31  33  33  33  34  33  19

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............23  25  26  27  27  28  30  32  34  36  42  47
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................50  47  45  43  41  40  39  38  38  37  36  36
RH..................56  63  65  70  73  76  76  79  79  82  85  85
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd......3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.....8   6   8   9   12  12  10  9   9   10  10  9
LVORI...............3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
ADI.................3   3   3   4   5   5   5   4   4   5   5   4
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....8   1   2   2   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2200-2500 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............53     53     49     55     59     63
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................35     38     47     51     53     53
RH..................85     79     58     52     50     54
20 ft wind..........E 2    E 3    SE 4   S 4    S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.....5      5      10     10     10     15
Mix hgt (ft)........300    700    1700   2200   2500   2500
Transport wind......E 8    E 8    E 10   SE 7   SE 6   S 8
LVORI...............4      4      2      2      2      2
ADI.................8      8      21     14     17     24
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index........4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      5      14     13     13     18

$$
Forecaster...McGEE
Requested by...Steve Stack
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702467.0/AKQ
.EMAIL Stephen_Stack@fws.gov



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