Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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451
FNUS71 KAKQ 250416
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for CA Burn Units...US Army, DPW-ENRD-Forestry
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1216 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather for today with high pressure well offshore. Although
southwest winds will be breezy and gust up to 15 to 20 mph in the
afternoon, increased humidities will quell any fire danger concerns.
Scattered showers (and possibly isolated thunder) are expected to
develop late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a very weak
frontal boundary approaches the region.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....60 to 62 at ignition. High 75.
Min humidity........60 to 65 percent at ignition. Minimum 40 to 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......400 to 500 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to
                    3000-3100 ft AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............63  60  57  55  53  57  61  65
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................61  65  68  70  72  73  73  73
RH..................65  58  52  49  46  44  44  44
20 FT wind dir......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.....10  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......0.5 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
Transp wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....15  16  15  14  12  9   8   7
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   1   1   2   2
ADI.................16  18  24  27  36  31  26  22
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....6   8   18  25  29  25  21  18

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Min temperature.....52 to 54.
Max humidity........87 to 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light...then becoming south
                    around 5 mph late in the evening...becoming
                    light...becoming east around 5 mph late.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL...decreasing to 300 ft AGL late
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............69  73  77  72  74  75  76  77  79  77  76  74
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................72  69  66  63  62  60  59  58  57  56  55  54
RH..................48  53  58  65  70  75  78  77  80  83  86  90
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd......4   3   2   3   3   4   3   2   2   2   3   4
20 FT wind gust.....10  5   5   5   10  10  5   5   5   5   5   10
Mix hgt (kft).......2.4 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....6   6   6   7   8   9   9   9   8   8   8   8
LVORI...............2   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6
ADI.................17  4   3   5   6   6   6   4   4   4   6   6
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........3   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....13  9   6   6   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A chance of
                    showers early in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....72 to 74.
Min humidity........49 to 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL...increasing to 2400-3100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South around 8 mph...increasing to 6 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............72     69     67     65     64     72
Weather cov.........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............
Temp................54     54     60     67     70     70
RH..................90     86     72     59     53     51
20 ft wind..........E 4    E 4    E 4    E 4    S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.....10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    1500   2400   3100   3000
Transport wind......S 8    E 8    E 6    SE 7   S 10   S 13
LVORI...............6      5      3      2      2      1
ADI.................6      9      10     15     25     30
Chc of pcpn (%).....10     10     10     10     30     30
Haines index........3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      2      8      14     28     33

$$
Forecaster...DeRosa
Requested by...Chris McClelland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705168.0/AKQ
.EMAIL christopher.s.mcclelland.civ@mail.mil



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