Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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172
FNUS73 KAPX 291226
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Elk Money Burn...Michigan DNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
826 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over Hudson Bay continues to extend
ridging into Michigan, providing quiet weather into tonight. Light
northeast east winds will be seen today, and humidity levels will
bottom out at somewhat lower levels than yesterday. Incoming low
pressure will allow a wintry mix to develop Thursday and especially
Thursday night.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........31 at ignition...Max 49.
RH..................81 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 4 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 500-1600 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2600-3900 ft AGL in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 9 mph.
Vent rate...........Fair /200 at ignition. Max...good /300/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   13  14  18  27  31  34  39  41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............31  34  39  42  45  47  49  49  48
RH..............81  75  64  55  49  43  39  37  39
20 FT wind dir..E   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   10  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.6 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   9   8   7   6   3   3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5
VRate/100.......2   2   3   3   3   3   2   2   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Temperature.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........45  54  59  61  66  69  71  75  77  75  69  67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  44  42  38  35  33  32  32  32  32  32  32
RH..............40  45  46  54  61  63  66  69  69  72  72  75
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...Jeff Zoltowski
Requested by...Don Klingler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705435.0/APX



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