Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 131315
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
615 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1115 MST ON FEBRUARY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL BE
STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS DRY...STABLE
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ARE GOING TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY
                    SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN NORTHWEST 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 26 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 5000-6000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN 20-30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-32.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING. DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 8-14 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 2300 FT AGL
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL
                    0100...THEN 1000-1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1800. POOR AFTER 2000.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-52.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    NORTHWEST 8-14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0600...THEN 4100-5100
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN NORTHWEST
                    20-30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1300.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/13-05 42  0  0 38 40  SW 12 18 5 1   W 20  1198   W 17 17428 P
02/13-06 39  0  0 38 38  SW 10 16 5 1   W 20  1171   W 17 17254 P
02/13-07 39  0  0 39 34  SW 10 16 5 1   W 20  1143   W 17 17068 P
02/13-08 33  0  0 41 31  SW 10 16 5 1   W 21  1115   W 17 16872 P
02/13-09 26  0  0 45 29  SW  9 15 5 1   W 22  1614   W 20 27565 P
02/13-10 27  0  0 50 27 WSW  9 15 5 1   W 23  2113   W 22 40203  F
02/13-11 29  0  0 54 26 WSW 10 16 5 1   W 24  2612   W 24 54783  F
02/13-12 31  0  0 56 25 WSW  6  6 5 1   W 30  3744   W 24 77282   G
02/13-13 33  0  0 57 25   W  6  6 4 1   W 37  4876   W 23 99030   G
02/13-14 35  0  0 57 24   W  6  6 4 1   W 43  6008 WNW 23120025    V
02/13-15 34  0  0 55 26   W  6  6 3 1 WNW 44  5734 WNW 23114230    V
02/13-16 33  0  0 53 27   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 46  5460 WNW 23108465    V
02/13-17 33  0  0 50 29   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 48  5186 WNW 23102732    V
02/13-18 33  0  0 46 33   W 12 18 3 1 WNW 48  3755 WNW 23 76154   G
02/13-19 33  0  0 42 37   W 15 24 5 1  NW 48  2325 WNW 24 48231  F
02/13-20 33  0  0 39 41   W 16 25 6 1 NNW 48   894 WNW 24 18963 P
02/13-21 33  0  0 37 43   W 15 24 6 1  NW 48   879 WNW 23 17599 P
02/13-22 33  0  0 36 44   W 13 21 6 1  NW 48   864 WNW 22 16271 P
02/13-23 41  0  0 36 44   W 10 16 6 1  NW 47   849 WNW 21 14978 P
02/14-00 41  0  0 35 44   W  9 15 6 1  NW 49   927 WNW 18 14827 P
02/14-01 41  0  0 35 43   W  9 15 5 1 WNW 52  1005 WNW 16 14416 P
02/14-02 41  0  0 34 43   W  9 15 5 1 WNW 53  1084 WNW 15 13748 P
02/14-03 41  0  0 34 42 WSW  9 15 5 1 WNW 47  1030 WNW 15 12887 P
02/14-04 41  0  0 33 43 WSW  9 15 5 1 WNW 40   976 WNW 14 12045 P
02/14-05 28  1  0 32 43   W  8 14 5 1 WNW 35   922 WNW 14 11222 P
02/14-06 28  1  0 32 45 WSW  8 13 4 1 WNW 41  1122 WNW 13 12100 P
02/14-07 28  1  0 32 47  SW  7 13 3 1 WNW 48  1323 WNW 10 12421 P
02/14-08 28  1  0 33 47 SSW  7 12 2 1 WNW 55  1523 WNW  9 12771 P
02/14-09 28  1  0 37 42  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 56  2461 WNW 13 26521 P
02/14-10 28  1  0 41 38   W  5  5 2 1 WNW 55  3399 WNW 15 44759  F
02/14-11 45  5  1 45 34   W  5  5 2 1 WNW 54  4336 WNW 18 67482   G
02/14-12 45  5  1 47 32   W  6  6 2 1  NW 56  4618 WNW 21 84270   G
02/14-13 45  5  1 48 31 WNW  9 15 3 1  NW 59  4900 WNW 24102572    V
02/14-14 45  6  1 48 31 WNW 10 17 3 1  NW 61  5182 WNW 28122388    V
02/14-15 45  6  1 46 34 WNW 10 17 3 1  NW 62  5140 WNW 30132271    V
02/14-16 45  6  1 45 35 WNW  9 15 3 1  NW 62  5099  NW 32141978    V
02/14-17 49 10  2 42 39 WNW  8 14 3 1 NNW 61  5057  NW 35151508     E
02/14-18 49 10  2 40 43 WNW  8 14 3 1 NNW 60  4183  NW 32115418    V
02/14-19 49 10  2 38 46 WNW  8 14 3 1 NNW 58  3309 WNW 29 83469   G
02/14-20 49 10  2 36 50 WNW  8 14 3 1 NNW 53  2435 WNW 26 55659  F
02/14-21 49 10  2 35 51   W  8 13 3 1 NNW 47  2153 WNW 24 45912  F
02/14-22 49 10  2 34 52   W  7 13 2 1 NNW 41  1871 WNW 23 37030 P
02/14-23 36  4  1 34 52   W  7 12 2 1 NNW 37  1589 WNW 21 29013 P
02/15-00 36  4  1 34 51   W  7  7 2 1 NNW 32  1505 WNW 20 24869 P
02/15-01 36  4  1 34 50   W  7  7 3 1 NNW 31  1421 WNW 17 21018 P
02/15-02 36  4  1 34 49   W  7 12 3 1 NNW 32  1336 WNW 15 17458 P
02/15-03 36  4  1 33 50 WSW  7 13 3 1 NNW 40  1244 WNW 14 15441 P
02/15-04 36  4  1 32 52 WSW  8 13 2 1  NW 49  1151 WNW 14 13544 P
02/15-05 28  2  0 31 53 WSW  8 14 2 1  NW 55  1058 WNW 13 11768 P
02/15-06 28  2  0 32 51 WSW  8 14 2 1  NW 54  1217 WNW 14 14809 P
02/15-07 28  2  0 33 50 WSW  8 14 3 1 NNW 49  1376 WNW 15 18184 P
02/15-08 28  2  0 36 46 WSW  8 14 3 1 NNW 43  1534 WNW 16 21891 P
02/15-09 28  2  0 40 40 WSW  8 14 3 1 NNW 38  2210 WNW 17 33432 P
02/15-10 28  2  0 43 37   W  8 14 3 1 NNW 32  2885 WNW 18 46135  F
02/15-11 27  2  0 47 32   W  8 14 3 1 NNW 26  3561 WNW 20 60001   G
02/15-12 27  2  0 50 30   W  9 15 3 1 NNW 20  4136 WNW 20 71146   G
02/15-13 27  2  0 51 30 WNW 10 17 3 1  NW 15  4711 WNW 21 82698   G
02/15-14 27  2  0 52 29  NW 10 17 3 1 WNW 13  5286 WNW 21 94655   G
02/15-15 27  2  0 51 31  NW  9 15 3 1 WNW 14  5174 WNW 21 92368   G
02/15-16 27  2  0 50 32  NW  7 13 2 1  NW 17  5063  NW 21 90093   G
02/15-17 29  2  0 48 34  NW  6  6 2 1  NW 22  4952  NW 21 87832   G
02/15-18 29  2  0 45 38 WNW  6  6 2 1  NW 25  4200  NW 18 68789   G
02/15-19 29  2  0 42 43   W  6  6 3 1 NNW 29  3448 WNW 17 51790  F
02/15-20 29  2  0 40 46 WSW  6  6 3 1 NNW 32  2696 WNW 16 36833 P
02/15-21 29  2  0 39 48 WSW  6  6 3 1 NNW 37  2486 WNW 16 35952 P
02/15-22 29  2  0 38 50 WSW  7  7 2 1 NNW 40  2276 WNW 17 34736 P
02/15-23 24  2  0 37 52 WSW  7 12 2 1 NNW 41  2067 WNW 18 33185 P
02/16-00 24  2  0 36 54 WSW  7 12 2 1 NNW 39  1949 WNW 16 27040 P
02/16-01 24  2  0 35 55 WSW  7  7 2 1  NW 33  1832 WNW 14 21409 P
02/16-02 24  2  0 34 56 WSW  7  7 2 1  NW 30  1715 WNW 12 16290 P
02/16-03 24  2  0 34 55 WSW  7  7 2 1  NW 29  1569 WNW 10 14383 P
02/16-04 24  2  0 33 57 WSW  6  6 3 1  NW 29  1423   W 10 12572 P
02/16-05 25  2  0 33 56 WSW  6  6 3 1  NW 30  1277   W 10 10859 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...DANKERS
REQUESTED BY...KRIS HEINY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160213.BEARM.01/BOU


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