Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 302219
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR WATERTANK...BOULDER FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
419 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD AT THIS TIME ON A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. ON MONDAY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS MORE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A DRIER
FLOW THAT COULD RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE EFFECTS MAY BE LESS SEVERE OVER THE
POTENTIAL BURN AREA...CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS GUSTING FROM THE
SOUTH UP TO 30 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGH WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET INTERACTION. MODELS HAVE WINDS NEAR MOUNTAINTOP CLOSING
IN ON 70 MPH BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
ON TUESDAY. A STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAINTOP WILL HELP TO BRING
THESE WINDS DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH POSSIBLE WIND SPEEDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........35%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5000-6000 FT
                    AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5-6 MPH.
.TUESDAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 7-11 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 5-9 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WATERTANK.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

09/30-16 81 23  5 72 32   S  3  3 2 3 WNW 18  4700   W  5 21717 P
09/30-17 82 30  9 71 33   S  3  3 3 4 WNW 15  3558  SW  5 14700 P
09/30-18 78 28  8 69 36 SSW  3  3 3 4  NW 12  2417   S  3  7683 P
09/30-19 78 28  8 66 41 SSW  5  5 3 4  NW 12  1948 SSW  5  6616 P
09/30-20 65 28  8 63 48  SW  5  5 2 4  NW 12  1479 SSW  5  5548 P
09/30-21 66 22  4 60 55  SW  6  6 2 3  NW 12  1011 SSW  5  4481 P
09/30-22 63 22  4 58 60 WSW  6  6 2 3  NW 10  1025  SW  5  4039 P
09/30-23 63 22  4 57 63 WSW  5  5 2 3 WNW 10  1040 WSW  3  3597 P
10/01-00 42  7  1 56 64 WSW  5  5 2 1   W  9  1055   W  3  3155 P
10/01-01 28  7  1 55 65 WSW  5  5 2 1   W  9  1053   W  3  3559 P
10/01-02 22  7  1 54 65 WSW  5  5 2 1   W  9  1051   W  5  3962 P
10/01-03 22  5  1 53 66   W  5  5 2 1   W  9  1049 WNW  5  4366 P
10/01-04 22  5  1 52 67   W  5  5 2 1   W  9  1062 WNW  5  4347 P
10/01-05 22  5  1 52 66   W  6  6 2 1   W  9  1075 WNW  5  4327 P
10/01-06 46  1  0 53 64   W  6  6 2 1   W  9  1088 WNW  5  4307 P
10/01-07 46  1  0 55 61   W  5  5 2 1   W  9  1264 WNW  3  4024 P
10/01-08 46  1  0 58 58   W  5  5 2 1   W  9  1439 WNW  3  3741 P
10/01-09 46  1  0 61 54   W  3  3 2 1   W  9  1615 WNW  2  3457 P
10/01-10 46  1  0 65 46 WSW  3  3 2 1 WSW 10  3104   W  3 11724 P
10/01-11 46  1  0 68 41 SSE  3  3 2 1 WSW 10  4593  SW  5 19991 P
10/01-12 52 16  3 70 38 ESE  3  3 2 3 WSW 12  6081   S  6 28258 P
10/01-13 52 16  3 72 35 ESE  3  3 2 3 WSW 12  6136   S  6 28474 P
10/01-14 52 16  3 72 35  SE  5  5 2 3 WSW 13  6190   S  6 28689 P
10/01-15 52 16  3 72 35 SSE  5  5 2 3   W 14  6244   S  6 28905 P
10/01-16 52 16  3 72 35   S  5  5 2 3   W 16  4756   S  5 21784 P
10/01-17 52 16  3 71 36  SW  3  3 3 3   W 18  3269   S  5 14662 P
10/01-18 52 13  3 69 38 WSW  3  3 3 2   W 20  1782   S  5  7541 P
10/01-19 52 13  3 66 42 WSW  5  5 3 2   W 18  1866   S  5  8056 P
10/01-20 52 13  3 63 48 WSW  6  6 3 2   W 16  1951  SW  5  8571 P
10/01-21 52 13  3 60 53 WSW  6  6 3 2   W 15  2036 WSW  5  9086 P
10/01-22 52 13  3 58 57   W  6  6 3 2   W 15  1991 WSW  6 10851 P
10/01-23 52 13  3 57 58   W  6  6 3 2   W 14  1945   W  7 12527 P
10/02-00 18  2  0 56 59   W  6  6 3 1   W 14  1900   W  8 14113 P
10/02-01 18  2  0 55 60   W  6  6 3 1   W 14  1775   W  9 13566 P
10/02-02 18  2  0 54 61   W  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1650   W  9 12966 P
10/02-03 18  2  0 53 61   W  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1525   W  9 12312 P
10/02-04 18  2  0 52 61   W  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1441   W  9 11553 P
10/02-05 18  2  0 52 60   W  5  5 3 1  SW 12  1356   W  9 10803 P
10/02-06 17  2  0 52 59   W  5  5 3 1  SW 12  1271   W  9 10061 P
10/02-07 17  2  0 54 55   W  5  5 3 1  SW 13  1767 WNW  8 12652 P
10/02-08 17  2  0 56 52   W  3  3 2 1 SSW 14  2263 WNW  7 14496 P
10/02-09 17  2  0 60 46   W  3  3 2 1 SSW 15  2758 WNW  7 15593 P
10/02-10 17  2  0 63 42  SW  3  3 2 1 SSW 16  4689   W  7 26553 P
10/02-11 17  2  0 67 37 SSE  3  3 2 1 SSW 18  6620 SSW  7 37548 P
10/02-12 34  3  1 69 35 ESE  5  5 2 1 SSW 20  8551   S  7 48579  F
10/02-13 34  3  1 71 32 ESE  6  6 2 1 SSW 21  8673   S  8 61024   G
10/02-14 34  3  1 72 31  SE  7  7 2 1 SSW 21  8795   S  9 73800   G
10/02-15 34  3  1 72 30  SE  7  7 2 1  SW 22  8917   S 12 86906   G
10/02-16 34  3  1 72 30 ESE  6  6 2 1 SSW 23  8395 SSE 12 82165   G
10/02-17 34  3  1 71 31 ESE  6  6 2 1 SSW 24  7874 SSE 12 77381   G
10/02-18 36 10  2 69 33   E  5  5 2 2 SSW 26  7353 SSE 12 72555   G
10/02-19 36 10  2 66 38  SE  5  5 2 2 SSW 25  5790 SSE  9 47419  F
10/02-20 36 10  2 63 42   S  6  6 2 2 SSW 24  4228   S  8 27527 P
10/02-21 36 10  2 60 48  SW  6  6 2 2 SSW 23  2666   S  6 12881 P
10/02-22 36 10  2 58 51  SW  6  6 2 2 SSW 24  2306   S  7 13506 P
10/02-23 36 10  2 57 52  SW  6  6 2 2 SSW 24  1947 SSW  8 13395 P
10/03-00 24  4  1 57 51  SW  6  6 2 1 SSW 24  1588  SW  9 12548 P
10/03-01 24  4  1 56 52  SW  6  6 2 1   S 24  1466  SW  9 11447 P
10/03-02 24  4  1 54 56 WSW  6  6 3 1   S 24  1344  SW  9 10369 P
10/03-03 24  4  1 53 57 WSW  6  6 3 1   S 24  1222  SW  9  9313 P
10/03-04 24  4  1 52 56 WSW  6  6 3 1   S 25  1221  SW  8  8552 P
10/03-05 24  4  1 51 56 WSW  5  5 3 1   S 26  1221   W  7  7792 P
10/03-06 29  1  0 51 54 WSW  5  5 3 1   S 29  1220   W  7  7033 P
10/03-07 29  1  0 53 51 WSW  5  5 3 1   S 25  1623 WSW  7  9180 P
10/03-08 29  1  0 56 47 SSW  6  6 2 1 SSW 23  2025  SW  7 11242 P
10/03-09 29  1  0 60 42 SSW  6  6 2 1 SSW 21  2428 SSW  6 13217 P
10/03-10 29  1  0 64 37   S  6  6 2 1 SSW 25  4634 SSW  9 36934 P
10/03-11 29  1  0 68 32 SSE  6  6 2 1  SW 30  6840 SSW 12 71798   G
10/03-12 38  6  1 71 29 SSE  6  6 2 1  SW 36  9046 SSW 15117810    V
10/03-13 38  6  1 73 26 SSE  6  6 2 1  SW 36  9962 SSW 20168006     E
10/03-14 38  6  1 74 24 SSE  6  6 3 1  SW 36 10878 SSW 24225238     E
10/03-15 38  6  1 74 23   S  6  6 3 1  SW 35 11794 SSW 29289508     E
10/03-16 38  6  1 74 22   S  7  7 3 1  SW 37 11609 SSW 30304332     E
10/03-17 38  6  1 73 21   S  7  7 4 1  SW 39 11424 SSW 32318539     E
10/03-18 33  6  1 71 22 SSW  8  8 4 1  SW 41 11239 SSW 35332128     E

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BOWEN
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL SMITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20161003.WATER.01/BOU



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