Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 141349
FWSBOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WELLFLEET-2012-033-RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
949 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A TOUGH FORECAST CONSIDERING THE DISTINCT NATURE OF THE BURN SITE
NEIGHBORING AGAINST COLDER WATERS.

DISPERSION SHOULD BE FAIR WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED TO INCREASE 25 TO 30 MPH INTO THE
MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THOUGH WARMING
AND MIXING MAY BE LIMITED BY LOW CLOUDS SEEN PER LOCAL WEBCAMS
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE COLDER WATERS WATERS. TEMPERATURES AT
WELLFLEET MAY BE LIMITED FROM WARMING INTO THE 70S.

DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS AND THE POOR-RESOLUTION OF
OUR FORECAST DATABASE OVER THE CAPE...WILL ASSUME THAT ACROSS THE
EASTERN ARM OF THE CAPE WILL SEE ROBUST MIXING ALONG THE SPINE UP
TO ROUGHLY 1000 FT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
TRANSPORT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT WITH
THE DECENT FETCH OFF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ALONG WITH IT A SOAKING RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TILL FRIDAY WILL DRY OUT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
RH..................86 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 18 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 27 MPH...
                    GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...
                    OTHERWISE 300-800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /AROUND 20000 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
                    MAX...FAIR /40000 KNOT-FT/.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............72  66  60  53  47  51  55  59
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  61  63  64  65  65  64  62
RH..................86  83  83  83  83  80  90  93
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......18  21  22  22  23  22  21  22
20 FT WIND GUST.....25  25  30  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....28  29  29  29  29  29  29  30
LVORI...............4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
VRATE KT-FT/1000....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE LATE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 22 TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (3100-3500 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............62  66  70  71  72  74  75  76  77  77  77  77
WEATHER COV.........            PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE........            FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV............
TEMP................52  52  52  53  52  52  51  51  51  50  50  49
RH..................100 96  96  86  89  93  96  96  96  100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......22  23  24  23  23  24  24  25  25  25  25  25
20 FT WIND GUST.....30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
LVORI...............3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.................M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
VRATE KT-FT/1000....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
                    PATCHY FOG EARLY. PATCHY FOG LATE. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AROUND NOON. SHOWERS LIKELY LATE.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.
RH..................MIN 80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTH WINDS 24 TO 30 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 29 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (2800-3000 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............76  76  76  79  82  85  87  90  93  94  95  96
WEATHER COV.........PTY PTY SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........FOG FOG RNF RNF RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................49  50  50  51  52  53  54  54  55  54  54  53
RH..................100 96  96  93  89  86  83  83  80  83  80  83
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......24  24  24  25  25  26  26  28  28  29  29  30
20 FT WIND GUST.....30  30  30  30  30  35  35  35  35  35  40  40
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....29  29  29  30  30  31  31  32  32  33  33  35
LVORI...............4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   4   3   4
ADI.................M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
CWR.................10  10  20  20  30  40  40  50  60  60  70  70
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$

FORECASTER...SIPPRELL
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN DEFOREST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140414.WELLF.01/BOX



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