Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FNUS72 KCAE 021138
FWSCAE

SPOT FORECAST FOR SRS_C23_EAST...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE BURN SITE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THINKING WILL STALL THIS
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS...KEEPING THE SRS IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP BOTH
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS MORE OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN SHIFT THEM MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT BEGINS STALLING OUT.  THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG BEING POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EXPECTED IGNITION
TIME.  THE MORNING INVERSION SHOULD BE BREAKING BY THE TIME
OF IGNITION.  WITH FORECAST HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE
70S SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED...
MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 3500 FEET. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE DAY.

POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE FEEDBACK INCLUDING OBSERVATIONS TAKEN AT
THE BURN SITE WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. YOU CAN USE THE SAME
WEBPAGE WHERE YOU REQUESTED THE SPOT FORECAST FOR THIS. YOU MAY
ALSO CALL OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS. HYSPLIT
OUTPUT HEIGHTS FOR THE NWS COLUMBIA AREA ARE 300, 750 AND 1500 METERS.
THESE VALUES ARE DIFFERENT THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.TODAY...
TIME (EST)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............59  56  52  51  52  56  60  64
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TEMP................65  69  72  74  75  76  76  73
RH..................68  61  57  53  52  50  48  53
20 FT WIND DIR......E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND DIR......110 120 130 140 140 150 150 140
20 FT WIND SPD......4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 1.4 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.3 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   9   12  15  16  17  18  20
LVORI...............3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............68     64     70     73     77     86
WEATHER COV.........                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP................71     67     65     64     63     63
RH..................57     71     76     83     88     91
20 FT WIND..........SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........1400   500    600    600    500    500
TRANSPORT WIND......SE 16  SE 16  SE 16  SE 16  SE 16  S 16
LVORI...............2      3      3      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...LISCINSKY
REQUESTED BY...JAMIE ATKINS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160202.SRS_C.01/CAE


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