Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 211716
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 75...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
116 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING THROUGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL PA TODAY. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PREVIAL AS WELL. LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AND 30-40 PCT RH VALUES
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 500-2000 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............100 100 100 97  92  90  77  52  40  36  27  23
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................53  51  50  49  48  48  47  47  46  45  45  44
RH..................63  69  63  66  68  71  72  74  76  77  79  80
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......6   6   6   7   7   8   9   9   10  10  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.0 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   10  10  12
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8100-8300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 21
                    TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............30  44  50  50  50  50  50  50  65  65  65  65
WEATHER COV.........        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................43  44  47  49  51  53  56  58  60  60  61  61
RH..................82  78  69  62  56  51  46  41  37  36  35  34
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......12  12  12  13  14  14  15  16  16  16  16  16
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.0 6.1 7.1 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  W   W   NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  10  12  15  21  24  25  25  24  24  23  23
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER
REQUESTED BY...JOHN WAKEFIELD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150522.SGL75.01/CTP


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