Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 291039
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for RRMC...Silvix
National Weather Service State College PA
639 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 29.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
Pennsylvania will be in the battle zone between two greatly
differing airmasses this weekend. A wavy, and nearly stationary
frontal boundary will reside across western and southern
Pennsylvania for much of this weekend. Shallow cool air will
filter southward across the Northern Mountains and into the
Central Ridge and Valley and Pocono Mountains Region.

There will be a large temperatures gradient across the frontal
boundary, with highs today ranging from the upper 50s in far
northwestern Pennsylvania, to the mid 80s across the southeastern
piedmont.

Several weather disturbances aloft will race quickly east
or northeast through the state, triggering rounds of
showers, with a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms likely
mainly over the southern half of the Commonwealth.

A few of the thunderstorms over the south and west could be on
the strong side with gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Sunday will feature a similarly sharp temperature difference, but
this time the coolest air will reside across the northeast half of
the state with temperatures only in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
while the Western Lowlands see high temperatures in upper 70s to
mid 80s.

A strong trough and cold front should bring a final round of
showers and thunderstorms Monday into Monday night, followed by
cooler and drier weather for the second part of next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent)...then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Occasional showers early
                    in the morning...then a chance of showers in
                    the late morning and afternoon. A chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400...then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......200-1400 ft AGL...increasing to 2200-3500 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph...decreasing to around 8 mph
                    late.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82  79  78  78  76  58
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............2   3   4   4   4   4
Temp............76  76  77  78  78  79
RH..............66  66  62  60  60  58
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.0 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.2
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.14  17  20  17  13  8
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Scattered
                    showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1900...then 9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......100-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3...or very low.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........57  63  62  64  70  72  70  67  65  69  77  81
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............77  74  72  71  70  70  69  68  67  66  65  65
RH..............62  69  73  76  78  78  81  81  81  87  87  84
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.6   5   3   3   5   6   8   10  12  12  12  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Scattered showers. Scattered thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 0800...then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming southeast 5
                    to 6 mph late. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1000-2500 ft AGL...increasing to 3000-3400 ft
                    AGL late.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3...or very low.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  81  80  84  90  93  92  88  86  88  92  94
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
LAL.............3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............64  63  63  64  65  66  69  71  73  75  76  77
RH..............90  90  87  90  90  87  84  81  79  76  74  74
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  12  13  13  13  12  12  12  13  13
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Lambert
Requested by...Shannon Henry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707997.0/CTP
.EMAIL shannon@silvixforestry.com



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