Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FNUS73 KDTX 041243
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Foxfire West Burn...City of Ann Arbor , NAP
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
743 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on December 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Mild air will move into the region on increasing
southeast wind today. Rain showers will remain west and north of
the site during the morning and early afternoon. Rain chance
increases mid afternoon then becoming widespread tonight with a
chance of thunderstorms.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog
                    early in the morning. A slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms during afternoon.
                    Chance of showers late.
Max temperature.....52-57.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 13 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......200-600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)..........70  73  76  79  82  85  87  88  89  90
Weather cov......SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type.....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov.........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp.............41  43  45  47  49  52  52  53  54  53
RH...............74  70  66  62  59  54  55  55  56  59
Eye lvl wnd dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd..7   8   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  11
Eye lvl wnd gst..15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)....0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd..14  18  22  22  21  20  18  18  17  17
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000.0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (85-95 percent) becoming partly
                    cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers with a chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....40-45.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 24 mph increasing to southwest 30
                    to 38 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to excellent (10000-70000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%)..........91     93     96     99     92     76
Weather cov......CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type.....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov.........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp.............53     53     53     53     53     52
RH...............62     70     78     78     79     79
Eye level wind...S 11   S 12   S 13   S 13   S 13   SW 12
Eye lvl wnd gst..25     30     30     35     30     25
Mix hgt (ft).....500    600    900    1200   1200   1200
Transport wind...S 18   S 24   S 33   S 38   S 38   S 37
Haines index....4      4      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000.10     10     30     40     40     40

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max temperature.....42-47.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......3000-4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 31 to 40 mph increasing to around 43 mph
                    late.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (90000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%)..........61        55        68        68
Weather cov......DEFNTE
Weather type.....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............48        42        42        40
RH...............74        72        64        55
Eye level wind...SW 11G25  W 10G25   W 11G30   W 12G35
Mix hgt (ft).....3000      3500      3600      4100
Transport wind...SW 39     W 33      W 32      W 38
Haines index....2         2         2         2
VRate kt-ft/1000.100       100       100       140

$$

Forecaster...Tilley
Requested by...Dave Borneman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719573.0/DTX
.EMAIL NAP@a2gov.org


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