Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FNUS73 KDTX 271806
FWSDTX

SPOT FORECAST FOR TEST SPOT REQUEST...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
206 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 CDT ON JULY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
IN COMPARISON THE LAST WEEK.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5
                    TO 7 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5
                    TO 7 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500-10600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (700 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........56  56  55  55  54
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............89  89  89  88  87
RH..............40  40  41  43  46
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  W   W   NW
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  W   W   NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   5   5   5   4
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/10001   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    5 TO 8 MPH BY LATE EVENING...THEN...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING EAST UP TO 5
                    MPH LATE...BECOMING NORTH.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    5 TO 8 MPH BY LATE EVENING...THEN...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING EAST UP TO 5
                    MPH LATE...BECOMING NORTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1600 FT AGL
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 9 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 20
                    MPH BY MIDNIGHT...THEN...BECOMING NORTHEAST 14
                    TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...DECREASING TO 3 TO 8
                    MPH LATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (0-700 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........54     55     57     58     62     65
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............84     77     72     70     68     67
RH..............52     69     84     89     92     95
20 FT WIND......NW 5   N 6    NE 6   E 3    NE 5   N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.       10            5
EYE LEVEL WIND..NW 4   N 5    NE 4   E 2    NE 4   N 4
EYE LVL WND GST.       10            5
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4      4      4      4
VRATE KT-FT/10001      1      0      0      0      0

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-4300 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN...INCREASING TO
                    5400-6900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
                    TO 4600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (0-600 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........69        72        75        77
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
TEMP............69        77        81        81
RH..............85        66        55        54
20 FT WIND......NE 6      NE 7G15   NE 7G15   NE 10G20
EYE LEVEL WIND..NE 5      NE 5G15   NE 5G15   NE 7G20
HAINES INDEX....4         4         4         3
VRATE KT-FT/10000         0         1         1

$$
FORECASTER...BEHNKE
REQUESTED BY...USFS OFFICIAL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1601137.0/DTX
.EMAIL REQUESTOR@FS.FED.US


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