Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 182046
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Ft. Bayard Administration Site...USFS
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
146 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 MST on January 18.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Warmer temperatures will occur today as a westerly flow begins to
take hold. The next storm system is forecast to arrive late
Saturday. Temperatures will be even warmer on Friday as the
southwest to west flow strengthens. Saturday should become windy
with west and southwest winds in the 25 to 35 mph with some gusts
in the 45 mph range in the afternoon and early evening. This
system which will give our region a better chance at mountain snow
and lowland rain Saturday and Saturday night. The storm passes
quickly with a Pacific front moving in to cool he region back to
near normal on Sunday and beyond.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds  becoming southwest around 5 mph early
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 3200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 3 mph shifting to the southwest
                    3 to 4 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0
LAL.............1      1
Temp............52     52
RH..............23     23
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   3200
Transport wind..SW 1   SW 6
Haines index....4      3
Vent Rate.......POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 6 mph early in the evening, then
                    becoming light after midnight becoming
                    northwest around 5 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......0-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........17     17     17     18     18     18
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............48     39     38     36     35     35
RH..............26     37     37     38     38     36
20 ft wind......W 6    NW 6   NW 7   N 8    N 8    N 8
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....800    800    800    BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SW 7   W 6    NW 5   N 6    N 6    N 6
Haines index....3      3      3      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 17
                    mph aftn.
Mixing height.......800-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........20        20        20        20
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............33        33        54        58
RH..............39        39        18        17
20 FT wind......N 8G15    N 8G15    W 10G20   W 13G25
Mix hgt (ft)....800       800       2500      2500
Transport wind..N 6       N 7       W 8       W 14
Haines index....4         4         4         4
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...Leo Trujillo
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800587.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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