Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FNUS74 KEWX 261320
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Schulze Unit 1...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
820 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on September 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mid to high clouds and a low-mixing regime are ongoing near the burn
site this morning. Lower clouds will develop through the mid to late
morning hours as temperatures increase. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon as mixing depth
increases with additional heating. Winds will generally be from the
southeast to east at ground and 20-ft level. Relative Humidity values
will remain elevated through the day with minimum only falling to near
55 percent.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Slight chance of showers early
                    in the morning, then chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0700, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200-3100 ft AGL increasing to 5500-6000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  82  85  88  91  89  87  85  86
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............76  79  82  85  87  88  89  89  87
RH..............94  85  77  67  61  57  56  56  59
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.1 3.7 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.0 5.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   9   9   10  10  12  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east around 5 mph
                    after midnight becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east around 5 mph
                    after midnight becoming light. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3100-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1300 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........87        87        79        73
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............10        0         0         0
LAL.............3         3         3         3
Temp............84        78        75        74
RH..............67        82        90        90
20 FT wind......E 6       E 5       E 5       E 4
Eye level wind..E 4G5     E 4       E 4       E 3
Mix hgt (ft)....4500      1300      400       400
Transport wind..E 14      SE 14     SE 12     SE 8
Haines index....3         3         3         3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................3 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph early
                    in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph early
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-1600 ft AGL increasing to 5600-6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........77        72        69        70
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         0         0
LAL.............3         3         3         3
Temp............71        74        84        88
RH..............97        93        67        55
20 FT wind......E 4       E 5       E 6       E 6
Eye level wind..E 3       E 4       E 4G5     E 4G5
Mix hgt (ft)....500       700       3600      5700
Transport wind..E 5       E 5       E 7       E 9
Haines index....3         3         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Allen
Requested by...Steven Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1716253.0/EWX
.EMAIL smoore@tfs.tamu.edu



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