Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FNUS74 KEWX 141157
FWSEWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG TROUGH...AUSTIN WATER WILDLAND CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON JULY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A RAPID DECREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS MORNING AS
MIXING STARTS. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT...
BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
WETTING RAIN CHANCES ARE SMALL...THE MAIN THREAT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WOULD BE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH...ALONG WITH A DIRECTION SHIFT TO
EAST OR NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF THE PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-7500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........28     39     39     45
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............85     91     96     97
RH..............55     40     33     32
20 FT WIND......SW 7   S 5    S 6    S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10                   10
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 5   S 4    S 5    S 5
EYE LEVEL WIND..10     5             10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1900...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-8200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1700-3200 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 TO
                    23 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........45     45     35     35     37     43
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............96     92     86     81     78     76
RH..............32     37     49     61     70     79
20 FT WIND......S 7    S 7    S 8    S 8    S 8    S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15     15     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 5
EYE LEVEL WIND..10     10     15     15     15     10
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND
                    5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND
                    5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0700...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800-8400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........43     48     48     48     48     48
WEATHER COV.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............74     76     81     88     93     95
RH..............82     79     66     50     43     40
20 FT WIND......SW 5   SW 5   W 5    N 2    N 2    NE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.                     5      5
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 4   SW 3   W 3    N 2    N 2    NE 4
EYE LEVEL WIND..5      5      5      5      5      5
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...26
REQUESTED BY...LUKE BALL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140714.BIGTR.01/EWX





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