Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FNUS72 KFFC 201920
FWSFFC

Spot Forecast for Davenport OHV...USFS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
220 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EST on February 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to keep
conditions dry over the burn site through at least early
afternoon Tuesday. Cloud cover will be increasing overnight
tonight through Tuesday. Expecting partly cloudy skies to give way
to mostly cloudy skies after midnight tonight...before becoming
overcast Tuesday afternoon. Cloud heights will remain above 20,000
ft AGL this evening through the overnight hours...but lower level
clouds between 2,000-4,000 ft AGL will be moving in around
daybreak Tuesday morning. These lower level clouds will increase
in coverage during the day.

Humidity will remain above 50 percent through the period...with the
typical diurnal trend expected with highest values (about 94
percent) expected around sunrise and lowest values (about 55
percent) expected mid-afternoon Tuesday. Humidity will start to
drop to around 59-65 percent 11am-noon Tuesday...but contrary to
today...lower level clouds around 2000-4000 ft AGL (about 80
percent coverage) will also be present with higher clouds amidst
these RH values. Could still see a few peaks of sunshine morning
into afternoon. A few spotty light showers will be possible after
noon on Tuesday...but bulk of activity should hold off until late
afternoon/early evening.

Fog not a real concern Tuesday morning. It is not impossible given
easterly winds and nearby body of water...but do not think there
will be enough moisture return for it to be widespread or dense.
At best, could see a few patches for an hour or two...mainly
around sunrise. Valleys would be more of a concern for fog
development than slopes.

Confidence is high that transport winds will be southeasterly
overnight tonight and through the day on Tuesday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds. Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) through
                    about 2am...then becoming  mostly cloudy (50-66 percent)
                    2am through about 5am.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........94 percent...peaking at 94 percent around 6am.
Wind (20 ft)........Light southeast winds 3-6 kts through 5am.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph...or 5 to 7 kts.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......100-300 ft AGL from 6pm-7am.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........38     40     43     45     51     65
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............68     62     56     53     50     47
RH..............44     58     73     81     86     92
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 4   SE 4   SE 4   SE 5   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.5      7      7      8      9      10
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   150    150    165    250    250
Transport wind..SE 6   SE 6   SE 5   SE 6   SE 7   SE 8
SDspl kt-ft/10005      0      0      0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds. Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) 6am through
                    about 2pm...then becoming overcast into the evening.
                    A slight chance of showers by about noon...increasing to likely by 6 pm.
CWR.................0 through noon..increasing to about 30 percent late afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........55 percent...expected around 3pm.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 17 mph..or 6 to 12 kts.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (6300-37500 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......About 400 around 6am...increasing about 2000 ft AGL
                    in the late morning before peaking around 3000 ft AGL
                    in the late afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........66     71     79     82     81     91
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC  CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      2      13     19     25
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............47     48     54     61     64     66
RH..............94     92     74     60     66     55
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 7   SE 9   SE 11  SE 12   SE 10
20 ft wind gust.11     12     15     19     20     17
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    2000   2000   3000   3000
Transport wind..SE 7   SE 10  SE 14  SE 15  SE 16  SE 14
SDspl kt-ft/10006      15     24     34     38     36

$$
Forecaster...Kovacik
Requested by...Jason Demas
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702504.0/FFC


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