Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FNUS75 KFGZ 272352
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTRUCK...CNF COCONINO NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
452 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1128 MST ON JULY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE BURN SITE ON THE LOW SIDE. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS ANY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY CREATE STRONG ERRATIC OUTFLOW DRIVEN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
                    10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 TO 65 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......VARIABLE BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 4-6 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (500 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 TO 16 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......VARIABLE 5 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD (91300 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......913.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...BOHLIN
REQUESTED BY...FLAGSTAFF DISPATCH
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160727.THUND.01/FGZ



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