142
FNUS72 KILM 111208
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for MOTSU V1.2...US ARMY
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
808 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures will be in place
across the area the next several days.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north around 6 mph late in
                    the morning, then becoming light early in the
                    afternoon becoming south 5 to 6 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest 9
                    to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Fair (49507 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............63.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  8   4   4   5   11  17  21  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  65  68  70  71  72  71  71  71
RH..............74  65  57  53  51  50  52  52  53
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   6   6   4   3   4   4   5   6
20 FT wind gust.8   11  10  7   6   7   8   8   9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 3.0 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.3 3.5 3.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  W   SW  W
Transp wind spd.17  16  13  12  10  9   10  10  9
Stability.......A   B   B   A   A   A   A   A   B
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............61  60  58  63  61  53  57  46  39
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.47  48  48  50  49  43  45  36  32
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...985 985 987 987 987 984 984 984 981

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 17 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4350 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Min ADI.............5.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........19  12  8   6   4   3   7   11  15  14  13  12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............70  69  67  65  64  64  63  63  63  62  62  61
RH..............55  59  64  69  72  74  76  77  78  78  80  81
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   4   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.8   7   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  12  12  13  14  16  16  16  17
Stability.......A   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............43  5   5   5   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   8
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.34  25  5   4   5   5   5   6   8   7   7   9
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...981 981 983 983 983 986 986 986 984 984 984 983

$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...TK Crawford
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413760.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL trent.k.crawford.civ@army.mil