Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FNUS72 KJAX 291257
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHRIMP FEST FIREWORKS...NASSAU EMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
857 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0845 EDT ON APRIL 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND AROUND 1 PM. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AS
THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...BECOMING LIGHT AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 20 LATE IN THE MORNING.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........60     47     34     26     23
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............73     78     83     87     86
RH..............90     74     63     59     61
20 FT WIND......NW 3   NW 2   NE 6   E 8    E 9
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     15     15
DISPERSION IDX..8      17     18     23     23
LVORI...........4      3      2      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....15 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........21     18     17     15     14     16
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............85     79     75     73     72     70
RH..............63     72     82     87     90     97
20 FT WIND......SE 9   SE 8   SE 5   SE 5   S 7    SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15                   10
DISPERSION IDX..19     4      2      2      4      2
LVORI...........2      3      5      5      6      7
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     0      0      0      0      0

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 17 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 32 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 45 IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 37.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........18     20     24     27     31     27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............69     70     77     81     84     84
RH..............100    97     76     67     61     61
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SE 5   SE 9   SE 10  SE 12  SE 14
20 FT WIND GUST.5             15     15     15     20
DISPERSION IDX..1      5      17     36     49     41
LVORI...........8      7      3      3      1      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...KENNEDY
REQUESTED BY...MARTHA OBERDORFER
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20160429.SHRIM.01/JAX


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