Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FNUS73 KJKL 162030
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR VENUS...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

.DISCUSSION...THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE
WARMED BY STRONG SPRING SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM BEING A
CONCERN. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THOUGH...THE TRANSPORT WINDS AND
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE QUITE LIMITED. THIS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY
OF RAIN LOW...AND MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT EVEN IF IT DOES
MANAGE TO OCCUR.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. WIDESPREAD FROST LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....UPPER 20S.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
POP.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........11     7      6      7      5      5
WEATHER COV.....              PATCHY WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   FROST  FROST  FROST  FROST
TEMP............52     44     39     37     34     32
RH..............25     38     50     54     63     69
20 FT WIND DIR..S      SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT WIND SPD..1      3      5      5      3      3
20 FT WIND GUST.       5                    5      5
RIDGETOP WIND...S 0    SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
TRANSPORT WIND..E 14   S 5    S 0    S 0    S 0    S 0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      5      5      5

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY AND WARMER.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.
POP.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 3300-5000
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2500
                    FT AGL IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    IN LATE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....33.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........5      6      8      9      10     11
WEATHER COV.....WIDSPD
WEATHER TYPE....FROST  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............31     45     57     65     67     65
RH..............75     44     29     23     22     25
20 FT WIND DIR..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3      3      3      2      3      3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5      5
RIDGETOP WIND...SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   SE 0   SE 5   SE 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9    2.0    3.3    4.8    5.0    3.5
TRANSPORT WIND..S 0    SE 5   SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   SE 10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...GREIF
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140417.VENUS.01/JKL




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