Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS73 KJKL 211200
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for curd garden 4...USFS
National Weather Service Jackson, KY
700 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...Mainly Dry Through at Least Noon - Rain Chances Increase After
That...

.DISCUSSION...Warm conditions will continue. We see another shot
of showers and thunderstorms later today as cold front stalls out
over the area. Due to this boundary we will see more shots of
rain showers and thunderstorms to round out the week. We are still
looking for a total of 1-3 inches through Sunday with up to 4
inches possible in the Bluegrass region.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the late
                    morning and early afternoon. Numerous showers
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........70 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................78 percent at ignition...Min 66 percent.
Dewpoint............61.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1500-3100
                    ft AGL increasing to 3300-4700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon, then decreasing to 2700 ft AGL late.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 29 mph becoming west 7 to 13
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good /51100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /75100 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................37 increasing to 82 in the afternoon decreasing
                    to 16 by sunset.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........72  78  80  82  85  87  88  89  90
Weather cov.....    SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).10  30  30  40  50  50  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............70  70  71  71  71  70  69  68  66
Dewpoint........63  61  61  62  62  62  61  60  59
RH..............78  73  71  73  73  76  76  76  78
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   5   5   5   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  10  10  10  5   5   5
Ridge wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.5 3.1 4.1 4.7 4.3 3.7 3.3 2.7
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.25  26  29  29  28  21  13  7   7
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
ADI.............53  58  68  82  82  61  35  17  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/100051  58  75  105 113 80  42  20  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Numerous rain showers until early
                    morning. Isolated thunderstorms through the
                    night. Periods of rain showers late at night.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................2.
Temperature.........Min 59.
RH..................Max 98 percent.
Dewpoint............57.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor to poor (2000-11300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........92     95     95     95     94     91
Weather cov.....NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS PERIOD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Cch of pcpn (%).60     60     60     60     60     80
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............64     62     60     60     60     61
Dewpoint........58     56     56     56     58     58
RH..............81     81     87     87     93     90
20 ft wind......N 2    N 2    NE 2   NE 2   E 1    SE 1
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      5      5
Ridgetop wind...N 5    N 0    NE 0   NE 0   E 0    SE 0
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   900    800    600    500    400
Transport wind..N 8    NE 10  NE 8   E 6    E 5    S 7
LVORI...........5      4      6      6      6      6
ADI.............4      4      4      3      2      3
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100011     8      6      3      2      3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms late at night.
                    Periods of showers through the day. Isolated
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1000, then 1 until 1100, then 2.
Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 71 percent.
Dewpoint............61.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late at night. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......1300-2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 26 mph decreasing to 7 to 15
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Poor to good (8200-52300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................61 early, then decreasing 40 by noon and to 14
                    by sunset.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........89        89        91        92
Weather cov.....PERIOD    PERIOD    PERIOD    PERIOD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Cch of pcpn (%).80        80        80        80
LAL.............2         2         2         2
Temp............62        64        70        71
Dewpoint........60        62        62        62
RH..............93        93        76        73
20 FT wind......S 2G5     S 3G5     SW 4G5    SW 4G5
Ridgetop wind...S 0       S 5       SW 5      SW 5
Mix hgt (ft)....1500      2300      1600      1600
Transport wind..S 18      SW 26     SW 15     SW 9
LVORI...........4         4         3         3
ADI.............37        54        25        16
Haines index....3         3         3         3
VRate kt-ft/100025        52        21        13

$$
Forecaster...GREIF
Requested by...Leif Meadows
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802188.1/JKL
.EMAIL leifmeadows@fs.fed.us


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