Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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427
FNUS73 KJKL 211134
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for sand springs kv3-5...USDA-FS Daniel Boone NF
National Weather Service Jackson, KY
634 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on November 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will develop today.
Gusts up to 20 mph are expected this afternoon. The southwest
winds will help transport slightly better moisture into the area
with dewpoints increasing to around 38 by this afternoon. This
increase in surface moisture will keep minimum relative humidity
around 43 percent today. A cold front will move through the area
late tonight with winds shifting to the northwest. While an
increase in clouds is likely with the front, no rain is forecast.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........40 at ignition...Max 60.
RH..................64 percent at ignition...Min 43 percent.
Dewpoint............29 increasing to 38.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 5 to 12
                    mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 700-2400
                    ft AGL increasing to 2800-3100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 22 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor /8900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /57700 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................14 increasing to 66.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   21  31  35  39  33  31  31  31  31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............40  44  48  51  53  56  58  59  58  57
Dewpoint........29  31  33  34  35  36  37  38  38  38
RH..............64  60  56  52  50  47  45  45  47  49
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   8   8   8   8   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  20  20  20  20  15  15  10
Ridge wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Ridge wind spd..10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  15  20  22  22  22  21  20
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............10  15  18  26  40  50  52  53  68  63
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate kt-ft/10009   11  13  21  40  53  56  58  56  51

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Dewpoint............35 decreasing to 32 late at night.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......1800-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair to good (21300-41000 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........25     27     18     26     67     88
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............55     52     48     45     42     40
Dewpoint........37     36     35     34     34     33
RH..............51     54     60     65     73     76
20 ft wind......SW 5   W 4    W 4    W 4    NW 5   N 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Ridgetop wind...SW 10  W 5    W 5    W 5    NW 10  N 10
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   2100   1800   2100   2100   1900
Transport wind..SW 20  W 17   W 16   NW 14  NW 13  N 13
LVORI...........2      2      3      3      3      4
ADI.............9      8      7      6      8      8
Haines index....5      4      2      2      3      4
VRate kt-ft/100041     33     25     25     23     21

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 43.
RH..................Min 47 percent.
Dewpoint............29 decreasing to 25 late in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair to fair (16400-23200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................25.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........72        55        24        5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............37        37        41        43
Dewpoint........31        28        25        25
RH..............79        70        52        49
20 FT wind......N 5G10    N 4G5     N 3G5     N 3G5
Ridgetop wind...N 10      N 5       N 5       N 5
Mix hgt (ft)....1900      2200      2600      3000
Transport wind..N 13      N 13      N 9       N 7
LVORI...........3         3         2         2
ADI.............24        25        27        23
Haines index....4         4         4         4
VRate kt-ft/100021        23        21        19

$$
Forecaster...KAS
Requested by...Leif Meadows
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719035.0/JKL
.EMAIL leifmeadows@fs.fed.us



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