Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FNUS72 KMFL 240906
FWSMFL

Spot Forecast for COWBELL FIRE...BIG CYPRESS
National Weather Service Miami FL
506 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 EDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 100 THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will be approaching the wildfire area tonight. Ahead
of the front, the winds will be breezy to windy from the southwest
today into tonight allowing for the dispersion index to get up to
near 100 by this afternoon. The relative humidity will also remain
well above the critical value over the wildfire area this
afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop over the
wildfire area this afternoon before increasing to numerous
tonight. Some of the storms tonight could become strong to severe
with the primary impacts being damaging winds, hail, frequent
lightning strikes, and heavy rainfall.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers in the morning,...then a chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southwest 17 to 20 mph
                    with gusts up to 30 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1400,...then 2 until 1700,...then 3.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL...increasing to 2500-4400 ft
                    AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 8 mph...increasing to southwest 26
                    to 32 mph.
Dispersion index....4...increasing to 92.
LVORI...............4.
Ceiling (kft).......25000...decreasing to 4000.

Time (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  51  51  51  51  42  42  42  73  73  73  78
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH CHC
Temp............74  77  76  82  85  86  88  89  89  90  89  89
RH..............91  86  88  73  66  62  58  57  56  54  56  56
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind dir..170 180 180 180 190 200 210 220 220 220 220 220
20 ft wind spd..2   3   4   5   7   10  12  14  14  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.5   5   10  10  15  20  25  25  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 2.5 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.9
Mixng wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..3   6   8   14  21  26  29  31  31  32  32  31
Dispersion idx..2   6   13  31  63  70  81  88  92  94  94  89
LVORI...........7   5   5   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  40  40  40  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers early in the evening. A chance of
                    thunderstorms through the night. Showers until
                    just after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................3.
Mixing height.......1200-3000 ft AGL...decreasing to 300-900 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 29 mph...becoming south 9 to 17
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....74...decreasing to 10.
LVORI...............4.
Ceiling (kft).......4000...decreasing to 2500.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms through early
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................3 until 0800,...then 5 until 1400,...then 3
                    until 1700,...then 1.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL...increasing to 3000-3700 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph...increasing to west 22
                    to 30 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon,...then decreasing to around 18 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....11...increasing to 25 late in the
                    morning,...then increasing to 48...increasing
                    to 74 early...decreasing to 62...decreasing to
                    47 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Ceiling (kft).......2500...increasing to 4000.

$$
Forecaster...Baxter
Requested by...ROCCO SNART
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1709974.0/MFL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.