Suppression Forecast
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791
FNUS71 KPBZ 160632
FWSPBZ

Spot Forecast for SGL 262  Fyre Cemetary...PA GAME COMMISSION
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
232 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on August 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (412) 262-1485, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.Discussion...

Showers today will give way to a dry and warm Wednesday. Rain is
likely with a Thursday cold front.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......0-1000 ft AGL, increasing to 5300-6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 1 to 8 mph, increasing to 10 to 12
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........36  35  33  33  34  34  34  35  35  33  31  29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  61  64  68  71  75  77  79  80  81  81  81
RH..............89  92  91  79  68  62  54  51  47  45  43  43
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.0 5.3 6.0 6.1 5.5
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.1   1   1   1   1   2   5   8   12  12  12  10
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......2000-3900 ft AGL, decreasing to 0-400 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 1 to 8 mph, becoming east 1 to 3 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........26  24  22  25  29  32  35  38  42  45  49  52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  76  74  72  70  69  67  65  64  63  62  62
RH..............55  59  65  74  78  81  85  89  93  89  91  92
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   5   2   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late in the morning. A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming southeast 5
                    to 6 mph early in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1800 ft AGL, increasing to 2800-4600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    3500-4900 ft AGL early in the afternoon,
                    decreasing to 2500 ft AGL late.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56  59  63  66  69  72  75  78  81  82  83  84
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............61  62  64  67  71  76  79  81  82  82  82  81
RH..............95  96  92  86  78  72  65  60  58  60  62  66
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.6 4.9 4.4 3.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   6   8   9   10  10  10  9   9   8
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   3

$$
Forecaster...99
Requested by...Josh Fuqua
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714436.0/PBZ
.EMAIL jofuqua@pa.gov



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