Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS71 KPBZ 270713 AAA
FWSPBZ

Spot Forecast for SGL 294...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
313 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (412) 262-1485, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.Discussion...

A very warm day on tap. Showers and storms return this
afternoon ahead of a cold front.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers early in the afternoon. A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms
                    likely late.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1600, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph,
                    increasing to 30 mph early in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 20 mph late. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......200-1600 ft AGL, increasing to 3000-4500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon, then increasing to
                    4400-5200 ft AGL early in the afternoon,
                    decreasing to 1700-3000 ft AGL late.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph, increasing to 22 to 26 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  31  36  41  46  51  57  63  68
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  30  40  50  60  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   3   3   3   4   4
Temp............69  73  76  78  80  80  79  77  71
RH..............64  56  51  48  44  42  43  47  67
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  11  11  12  12  13  12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  25  25  25  30  25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.5 5.2 4.4 3.0 1.7
Transp wind dir.SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  17  20  23  25  26  26  24  22
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1900, then 9-15 strikes
                    until 2100, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts up to 20 mph
                    until early morning, becoming light and
                    variable. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......200-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph, becoming west 3 to 10
                    mph after midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........74  80  86  83  80  77  75  72  69  68  67  66
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60  50  40  30  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............71  69  68  65  63  61  59  57  54  53  51  50
RH..............63  67  67  69  71  74  76  79  82  83  84  83
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.20  20  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.20  16  14  13  12  12  10  9   8   7   5   3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 7
                    mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......600-2300 ft AGL, increasing to 2600-3400 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph, increasing to around 13 mph
                    late.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  64  63  62  61  59  58  57  55  58  61  63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  50  52  55  59  62  65  68  70  71  72  72
RH..............85  83  79  70  62  54  48  45  42  41  41  42
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   3   4   5   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5       5   10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   6   5   3   6   8   10  12  13  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...RRR
Requested by...Josh Mitchell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707824.0/PBZ
.EMAIL joshmitche@pa.gov



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