Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 191228
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for CHESTNUT OAK RX BURN...NC STATE PARKS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
828 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1000 EDT on September 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Weak high pressure will maintain light wind conditions along with
rather low mixing heights to start this morning with the near
surface inversion gradually breaking between 10 am and noon.
However humidity levels should remain moist with humidity not
falling to below 50 or 60 percent until early this afternoon
especially if more clouds develop with the onset of heating. 20
foot winds will remain weak with directions turning from north to
a more west or northwest trajectory by afternoon but overall 5 to
12 mph. Mixing heights should finally rebound to above 3000 feet
this afternoon after a bit more mixing develops around midday.

Clouds may tend to linger again into early this evening before
seeing the inversion develop between 8 and 10 pm. Otherwise will
remain dry with patchy fog developing before clouds likely
increase later tonight.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL, increasing to 3500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........West 3 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8, increasing to 21 early in the afternoon,
                    then increasing to 26 early in the afternoon,
                    decreasing to 19 late.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  41  38  38  38  37  37  38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
Temp............70  74  77  79  80  81  82  80
RH..............81  72  66  63  61  59  58  61
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   W   SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3
Mixng wind dir..N   N   N   NW  W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..5   6   7   7   7   6   6   5
LVORI...........4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............8   12  18  24  29  27  23  19
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL, decreasing to 300 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Mixing winds........West 3 to 5 mph.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................12, decreasing to 2.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........41     47     46     41     37     38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     10
Temp............78     73     71     69     67     66
RH..............65     76     81     84     86     88
20 ft wind......W 2    W 3    W 3    W 4    W 4    W 4
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   300    300    300    300    300
Mixing wind......W 5    W 3    W 3    W 5    W 5    W 3
LVORI...........3      4      5      5      5      6
ADI.............12     1      2      3      2      2
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). A slight chance
                    of thunderstorms early in the afternoon. A
                    slight chance of showers early in the
                    afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent, increasing to 20 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming west around
                    5 mph late, then becoming light and variable
                    late. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL, increasing to 4200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Northwest 2 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................5, increasing to 26.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........41     45     30     31     44     42
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC
CWR.............10     10     10     10     20     20
Temp............65     67     73     77     81     82
RH..............90     83     77     70     61     59
20 ft wind......NW 3   NW 3   W 2    W 3    W 4    W 5
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    1000   2300   4000   4200
Mixing wind......NW 3   NW 3   NW 6   NW 7   NW 6   NW 7
LVORI...........7      5      4      3      2      2
ADI.............1      3      8      20     20     25
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Hudgins
Requested by...MATT WINDSOR
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1716024.0/RNK


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