Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 031142
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER MOUNTAIN CAMPGROUND RX...NC STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER MAY PASS WITHIN THE VICINITY
OF THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 4-6PM...BUT THE THREAT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE
IS LOW.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT...BUT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THIS SAME FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON
                    THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAXIMUM OF 5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH...INCREASING TO 12 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............33     33     25
WEATHER COV.........              S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TSTM COV............              S CHC
TEMP................83     86     87
RH..................49     44     43
20 FT WIND..........S 5    S 6    SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........4200   5100   5300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 12  SW 13  SW 13
CWR.................5      10     20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............19     12     13     14     15     17
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................85     81     77     74     73     72
RH..................47     58     66     72     76     78
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 4   SW 4   SW 4   SW 5   SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........3600   500    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 10  SW 5   SW 3   SW 5   S 7    SW 5
CWR.................10     5      5      5      10     10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 MPH
                    LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............20     27     36     43     46     43
WEATHER COV.........                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................70     72     78     82     86     87
RH..................80     75     61     53     48     47
20 FT WIND..........SW 3   SW 2   SW 3   W 4    W 5    NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........400    600    1300   2700   4900   6100
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 3   SW 5   SW 5   W 7    W 12   W 15
CWR.................10     10     10     20     20     30

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150803.LOWER.01/RNK


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