Text Products for FWS Issued by TOP

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FNUS73 KTOP 241248
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Burgess...USFWS
National Weather Service Topeka KS
748 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Precipitation chances are small though not zero. Any
precipitation, which should be light, should remain to the
southwest of the site. Winds will be light throughout the day,
generally veering from the north to northeast more to the east to
southeast during the day. With light winds and a morning
inversion, smoke dispersal will be rather limited initially.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................64 percent at ignition...Min 29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds north at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming east 6 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then shifting
                    to the southeast around 6 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /2900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /34100 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  MCR PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0
Temp............51  55  61  65  67  68  70  71  72  72
RH..............64  57  48  41  38  34  29  29  29  29
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   4   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.    8   12  11  9   8   7   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.7 1.6 3.1 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.5
Haines index....4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10003   6   16  34  31  31  28  31  32  33

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers late in the
                    evening. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Temperature.........Min 53.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (37400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      20     20     30     50
Temp............71     66     60     59     57     55
RH..............30     39     53     58     65     71
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..6      6      7      7      8      8
20 FT wind gust.9      9      12     12     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....5300   500    400    500    500    500
Haines index....4      4      5      4      4      3
SDspl kt-ft/100037     4      5      6      6      6

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain showers early in the
                    morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the
                    day. Rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph increasing to 18 to 19 mph with
                    gusts to around 29 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (37500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     CLOUDY    CLOUDY    CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50        80        80        80
Temp............54        56        60        63
RH..............79        86        84        81
20 FT wind dir..SE        SE        SE        SE
20 FT wind spd..8         12        16        19
20 FT wind gust.13        18        23        27
Mix hgt (ft)....600       900       1600      1500
Haines index....3         3         3         3
SDspl kt-ft/10009         16        36        38

$$
Forecaster...Poage
Requested by...David Spencer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412211.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_spencer@fws.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
