Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 012258
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
GOODPASTER RIVER... DENALI FROM THE RAILBELT EAST... DELTANA AND
TANANA FLATS... SALCHA RIVER SOUTHEAST... UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY NORTHWEST OF THE TAYLOR HIGHWAY... EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF.

A GLACIER DAMMED LAKE RELEASE ON THE TAKU RIVER IS LEADING TO
RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE... THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY HAS LOWS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...
NORTH OF BARROW... AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS A RIDGE IN THE BERING... AS WELL AS OVER WESTERN CANADA.
THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BY
EARLY THURSDAY... BRINGING RAIN TO NORTHERN SOUTHEAST.  THE NORTHERN
LOW WILL ELONGATE INTO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
ALASKA... BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.  BUT THE LARGEST
RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE ALASKA
RANGE TO NEAR EAGLE... INCLUDING THE GOODPASTER AND SALCHA BASINS.

...PRECIPITATION...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :  0.70
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PC RG :  0.68
STNA2    STONY STRIP RAWS     PC RG :  0.63
LIVA2    LIVENGOOD RAWS       PC RG :  0.62
SALA2    SALCHA RIVER         PC RG :  0.59
SRVA2    STONY RIVER RAWS     PC RG :  0.53
VNKA2    VUNZIK LAKE RAWS     PC RG :  0.51
SNIA2    SNIPE LAKE           PC RG :  0.50
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PC RG :  0.49
DOYA2    DONNELLY RAWS        PC RG :  0.47
PAOR     NORTHWAY AIRPORT     PP RZ :  0.43
TKFA2    TOK RAWS             PC RG :  0.41
TTLA2    TOTATLANIKA RAWS     PC RG :  0.36
GBDA2    GOODPASTER RIVER     PC RG :  0.32
MCDA2    CHENA RIVER          PC RG :  0.31
BKSA2    BLAIR LAKES RAWS     PC RG :  0.29
ALHA2    ALCAN HWY MI-1244    PC RG :  0.29
PAFA     FAIRBANKS AIRPORT    PP RZ :  0.28
BIRA2    BIRCH CREEK RAWS     PC RG :  0.28
PANN     NENANA               PP RZ :  0.26
CRHA2    CHENA RIVER          PC RG :  0.26
NCKA2    NINILCHIK RAWS       PC RG :  0.25

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTH SLOPE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND.
THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MAINLAND AND FAR EASTERN INTERIOR... AS WELL AS OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
$$

ACL


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