Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 122253
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

OUTFLOW FROM THE SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IN THE MENDENHALL
GLACIER NEAR JUNEAU HAS ENDED.  MENDEHNALL LAKE AND MENDENHALL RIVER
BOTH CRESTED ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND HAVE RECEEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MAINLAND. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA. ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVED THROUGH THE COOK INLET REGION OVERNIGHT...
INITIATING RARE NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY.  TODAY SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE NEXT NOTABLE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN ALASKA EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

FREEZING LEVELS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALASKA. VALUES RANGED FROM 5500 FEET AT KODIAK
TO 8000 FEET AT FAIRBANKS. FREEZING LEVELS WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST RANGING FROM 9000 FEET TO ABOVE 13000 FEET.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                       24 HR
NUCA2    NUCHEK                     1.60
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS              1.56
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO                 1.52
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS              1.50
AUKA2    AUKE BAY LARC              1.40
PASI     SITKA                      1.38
PAYA     YAKUTAT                    1.37
PAJN     JUNEAU                     1.33
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON            1.29

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALASKA WHILE THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALASKA. THE REST OF
ALASKA HAS A NEUTRAL SIGNAL INDICATING THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

RAR


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