Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
AGUS71 KTIR 281438
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1038 AM EDT Friday, April 28, 2017
A significant weather system will affect the Ohio River Valley tonight and
through the weekend. A warm front lifting north tonight will phase with
energy ejecting from the southern Plains. Showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible mainly in the middle of the region. Heavy
rain is also a distinct possibility with this activity. The heavy rain
threat will then shift west/north this weekend as a trough of low pressure
digs into the Central US and amplifies the pattern.
Very moist atmospheric conditions combined with the slow moving nature of the
storm system will yield significant rainfall totals across the mid-MS Valley
and western Ohio Valley. The trailing cold front will push through the basin
Sunday night finally bringing an end to the heavy rain threat.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
Currently there is no flooding in the basin. The potential will increase
tonight as potentially heavy rain begins to fall in the vicinity of the
Ohio River in the lower and and middle Ohio Valley. The flood threat will
shift back into the western basin this weekend with heavy rainfall expected
in IL, IN, and western KY. MODERATE to even MAJOR flooding is possible in
the Wabash and Little Wabash watersheds. Elsewhere in the western Ohio
Valley, MINOR to MODERATE flooding possible. The threat of flooding also
extends east into other parts of the basin although the risk is generally
...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Scattered showers produced widespread light amounts. A couple locations
received over a half inch, but in general amounts ranged from a few
hundredths to around a quarter inch.
...72-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Three-day rainfall totals range from 3-6" in IL, IN, and western KY. Parts
of OH, central and northern KY, and Middle TN will see 1-3". The eastern
third of the region is forecast to receive under 1", especially in the
far southeast where totals should remain below 0.25".
...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address: http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation
* Tendency based on observed value and a 1-day forecast.