Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FZAK80 PAFC 232326
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 PM AKDT FRIDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2016

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

SYNOPSIS...A LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE
HIGH ARCTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. A WEAKER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA SATURDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH BY TUESDAY. A LARGE STRONG LOW WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA TUESDAY... SHIFTING NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SPREADING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-

ICE COVERED.

-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 75.6N 135.1W TO 73.7N 163W TO
71.6N 152.2W TO 70.9N 153.2W TO NEAR BARROW TO THE ALASKA COAST NEAR
70.8N 157.7W TO 72.2N 164.8W TO 71.1N 171.9W AND CONTINUES IN
RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER CONSISTING OF NEW
SEA ICE THAT IS FORMING OVERNIGHT OR DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...OVER THE REMAINING
SEA ICE PACK GENERALLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY... WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OVER THE REMAINING NEAR SHORE
NAVIGATIONAL WATERS... THE PERIODS OF SW WINDS WILL LIKELY AID IN
CONTINUING TO FLUSH THE NEAR SHORE SEA ICE BELT OFF TO THE NE. IF
THAT BELT CAN BE MOVED OVER DEEPER WATERS TO THE N OF POINT
BARROW... THE ODDS ARE MUCH BETTER THAT WE CAN KEEP THE FIRST YEAR
ICE AWAY FROM THE NEAR SHORE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS. GENERALLY SPEAKING
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ISOLATED NARROW BELTS OF SEA ICE BEING STRIPPED
OFF TO THE NE OF POINT BARROW. NAVIGATIONAL WATERS JUST AROUND THE
POINT MAY BE IMPACTED WITH OTHER AREAS NEAR THE NW COAST SEEING
MAINLY OPEN WATER CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL ICE PACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT UP TO 25 NM TO THE NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...NEAR THE ICE EDGE
NE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY... WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT
NEWLY FORMED SEA ICE WITHIN THE PACK WILL CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE ICE
EDGE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. NEW SEA ICE MAY TEMPORARILY FORM IN
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR FRESHWATER RIVER DELTAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA AS WELL.

$$


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