Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 190650
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence
through Monday, then low afterwards.

High pressure in the west-central Atlantic and low pressure in
Texas is supporting gentle to moderate southerly winds across
the basin this morning. Buoy data and ship observations indicate
seas are generally 3-4 ft. Winds will increase in the western
half of the Gulf today as the pressure gradient tightens with
elongated low pressure troughing from central Texas to eastern
Mexico. Model guidance shows the elongated troughing and
associated broad low pressure slowly moving west to east across
the basin Monday night through Thursday. Due to a continued lack
of model consensus, confidence in the extended portion of the
forecast is low.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure north-northeast of the Caribbean is maintaining
moderate easterly to southeast flow across the waters, except
near the Gulf of Honduras and along the northwest coast of
Colombia where some fresh to strong nocturnal pulses continue.
Seas are generally 3-4 ft, except 5-8 ft in areas of stronger
winds. Expect the areas of stronger winds to continue to pulse
through late Monday night, approaching near gale force offshore
of Colombia each night, with seas building to 8-11 ft. A broad
low pressure system in the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help to
weaken the pressure pattern in the Caribbean later in the week,
with relatively tranquil marine conditions expected Tuesday
through Thursday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Moderate to high
confidence.

High pressure centered near 27N67W will shift east today while a
surface trough moving off the SE Georgia coast deepens into an
area of low pressure and moves east along 31N to near 72W by
tonight. Scatterometer data and buoy observations show gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across most of the forecast area.
Seas are generally 3-4 ft west of 70W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. A
weak cold front trailing south of the low tracking along 31N will
move east of the Bahamas through Monday. The low and its frontal
boundary will move east of 65W Monday night. High pressure over
the southeast US will slowly shift east-southeast Tuesday through
Thursday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.



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