Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 230722
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
322 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level short-wave trough is supporting an area of showers
with embedded thunderstorms that is affecting most of the Florida
Keys, the Straits of Florida and parts of south Florida. Winds
and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. At 23/0300 UTC, a
surface low of 1010 mb is analyzed over western Cuba with a
trough extending northward across the SE Gulf. The low is
forecast to move across south Florida today. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system will then end over the
southeast Gulf late today as the low moves away from the Gulf
region. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail except behind
a cold front currently moving across the NW Gulf.

The cold front extends from Mobile Alabama to near Brownsville
Texas. Fresh to strong winds follow the front with seas of 4-6
ft based on buoy observations. Seas will further build to 6-8 ft
in the wake of the front across the west-central waters early
this afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle
to near Tampico, Mexico this morning, and from south Florida to
the northern Yucatan Peninsula late Monday morning, pushing SE of
the Gulf by late Monday. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
dominate most of the Gulf waters tonight with seas generally in
the 4-6 ft range. High pressure will build behind the front with
decreasing winds and seas by late Monday into Tuesday. By mid
week, fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to
develop over the western Gulf between Atlantic high pressure and
low pressure over northern Texas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

The most recent scatterometer data indicate mainly light and
variable winds across the western Caribbean while moderate to
fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere, except across the waters
south of Hispaniola to about 16N where fresh lo locally strong
winds are blowing. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late
Monday, then will reach from central Cuba to northern Honduras
Monday night into Tuesday before dissipating. Moderate to fresh
NW winds are expected behind the front Monday. Then, expect light
to gentle winds across the western half of the Caribbean Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean and Tropical North
Atlantic waters throughout the forecast period. Northeast swell
is currently reaching the Atlantic passages in the NE Caribbean,
including the Anegada and Mona Passages, and also the Tropical N
Atlantic waters. Seas will build to 7 ft across those areas
through tonight.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

High pressure over the northeastern waters will retreat eastward
tonight into Monday, as the aforementioned low pressure tracks
northeast across South Florida today, then intensifies as it
merges with a frontal system over the northwestern waters on
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
Bahamas through tonight and continue to spread northeast across
the northern zones ahead of the low Monday. The pressure gradient
between this low and the high pressure to the east will result
in strong to near gale force southeast winds developing northeast
of the Bahamas late Sunday through Monday night with seas building
to 8 to 12 ft. Latest model guidance suggests that frequent
gusts to gale force or minimal gale-force winds will occur across
forecast zone AMZ113, east of the deepening low on Monday before
the low moves north of the area. Then, the decision was made and
a gale warning will be issued with the 0600 UTC forecast
package. As the low merges with a frontal system later on Monday,
a cold front will cross the northwestern waters. The front will
then reach from 31N75W to central Cuba on Tuesday morning, with
strong southerly winds persisting east of the front. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish by Wednesday across the forecast
region as the low lifts well north of the area and the associated
cold front dissipates over the SW N Atlantic waters. By that
time, high pressure centered just northeast of the Bahamas will
dominate the forecast region.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     Gale Warning Mon.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.



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