Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 070646
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
246 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR
WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL
PRIMARILY S OF 26N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS IN THE NW
GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE W
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING...AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WILL PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE GFS FORECAST AND THE NWPS WAVE FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR
WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN
THE VICINITY OF 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W WILL REACH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
AND EXIT THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE GFS/NWPS FORECASTS LOOK
REASONABLE OVER THE AREA AND WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS AND
12Z EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA WILL LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE
SHIFTING W-SW FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 29N79W WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC WATERS TO ITS E. OTHERWISE...MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 25N
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS
USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERENCE TO ADD THE EC WAVE TO THE
FORECAST AS IT GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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