Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 250744
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA NEAR 22N85W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...HOWEVER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND HAVE
SINCE LIKELY BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS ARE UP TO 8-12 FT S OF A LINE FROM 29N86W
TO 29N89W TO 20N96W WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
WINDS DIMINISH. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN THE NW GULF INCREASING TO
20-25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF.

THIS NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE
CURRENT FRONT...APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN WITH THIS FRONT
WITH THE LATEST GFS STALLING THE FRONT IN THE FAR NW GULF THROUGH
MON MORNING...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
THE SAME TIME. THE LATEST UKMET HAS THE FRONT ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF POSITIONS. THUS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
EXACT TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT FRONT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION...
EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 12-13 FT NEAR THE NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE STRONGEST TONIGHT/THU NIGHT WITH
THE PAST SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS NW OF COLOMBIA. THUS A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 00 UTC FRI THROUGH 18 UTC FRI AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO UP TO 15 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS.

IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR A SET OF NE SWELL WHICH
WILL PROPAGATE FROM N-S ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING FRI
NIGHT...PEAKING AT 10 FT NEAR 19N55W SAT AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE AS IT DROPS S OF 19N LATE
SAT NIGHT...REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 15N BY MON MORNING WITH
LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY.

IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF ENTERING
THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN NEAR 20N88W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HUG THE
YUCATAN COAST UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL DIMINISH AS THE
FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS FROM 22N83W TO 20N85W TO 16N87W...
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 FT NEAR
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND MAY GUST TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ATLC HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL NE OF
THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM
31N79.5W TO 28N80.5W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH
NEARBY BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 29N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO 76W. A LINE
OF CONVECTION IS PERSISTING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GULF STREAM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRESENT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 28N65W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENTLE RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING N OF 25N
E OF 70W ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
RETURN FLOW AND 4-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY REACHES FROM 30N65W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY FRI MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NW BEHIND IT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
INTO THE WATERS E OF 70W BEGINNING LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT ALONG 65W...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING
COLOMBIA BASIN...
 GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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