Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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616
AGXX40 KNHC 070800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
THIS MORNING. A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS IS MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF
CURRENTLY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A TROUGH FROM NEAR TAMPA
TO THE NW GULF OFF TEXAS. FARTHER EAST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED SURFACE
LOW HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A
TIGHT GRADIENT IS SETTING UP BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG
NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES RAPIDLY NE AND THE
HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT HOWEVER AS A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE CURRENT
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DIVES SE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY MON THEN
LIFTS NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS WILL DELIVER
A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...RESULTING IN A BLASE OF
STRONG NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF LATE MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 14 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF LATE MON. 00Z OPERATIONAL
MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATED THIS...WITH THE
ECMWF SLIGHTLY WEAKER. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWS FAIRLY LOW
PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED GALES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS...ITS LIKELY TO SEE
EFFICIENT MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS TO THE SURFACE TO AT
LEAST NEAR GALE CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE. THUS A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR LATE MON IN THE NE
GULF. SHORTER PERIOD SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY WED BUT SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER IN
THE MORNING. RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION....CARIBBEAN SEA AND
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A ACTIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING IS BREATHING NEW LIFE INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
HONDURAN COAST THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...HIGHEST IN THE
BAY ISLANDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF STRONGER WINDS HUGGING THE EASTERN
HONDURAN COAST NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT SE THEN STALL AGAIN MON FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NICARAGUAN COAST. A TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH REINFORCING
HIGH PRES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE OFF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA LATE MON AND TUE
WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT REACHING WESTERN PANAMA BY TUE
NIGHT. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY THU...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA...AND REACHING NEAR GALE
OFF NE COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. FARTHER EAST...TRADE WIND
SWELL TO 8 FT REACHING BARBADOS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL PUSH PAST THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TUE AND WED...SUBSIDING EARLY THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

A DYNAMIC MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT LIFTS NE...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES N OF GRAND
BAHAMA AND EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRES WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. DUE TO THE RAPID DEEPENING...THIS
LOW IS POISED TO BE AMONG THE STRONGER SYSTEM THIS SEASON...WITH
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OFF NE FLORIDA LATER TODAY...AND STORM
CONDITIONS NE OF THE BAHAMAS CLOSER TO 30N. SEAS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 30 FT BY TONIGHT MIDWAY BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA AS A
RESULT IN THE AREA OF STORM CONDITIONS. WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE N OF 28N EARLY MON...BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE
MON. WHILE THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT PATTERN...IT WILL DELIVER A COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH
SEAS REACHING 20 FT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N60W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE. THE SECOND FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
THE FIRST BOUNDARY BY MID WEEK AND DRIVE FARTHER EAST N OF 25N
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE WINDS RELATED TO THESE SUCCESSIVE FRONTS
WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT COVERING
MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID
WEEK...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING MON NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.
     STORM WARNING TONIGHT.
     GALE WARNING MON NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.
     STORM WARNING TONIGHT.
     GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     STORM WARNING TONIGHT.
     GALE WARNING MON.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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