Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 271732
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 03 2015 - 12Z SAT MAR 07 2015


THE MODEL SPREAD AT THE MEDIUM RANGE HAS BEGUN TO NARROW, WITH THE
COMPLEX TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD LARGELY SORTED OUT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE NOW IS THE
LONGITUDE OF THE BIG CYCLONE TO CROSS KAMCHATKA NEXT TUESDAY. THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS EAST OF ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THIS
LOW, RESULTING IN A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
BERING SEA. THE ECENS MEAN IS TUCKED WEST OF KAMCHATKA WITH THIS
LOW TUESDAY--MUCH CLOSER TO THE DECIDEDLY WESTERN/SLOWER NAEFS
MEAN. WITH THE LION`S SHARE OF THE SOLUTIONS SLOWER AND WEST WITH
THAT SYSTEM--AND THE ONE FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS NEXT FRIDAY--OPTED
FOR A FORECAST PACKAGE STRONGLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE NAEFS MEAN.
THE FARTHER WEST NAEFS IDEA WOULD LEAVE ROOM FOR A NEW, BLOCKY
RIDGE TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM OVER CONTINENTAL ALASKA LATE NEXT WEEK.


CISCO

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