Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 141850
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VALID 12Z THU SEP 18 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 22 2014

THE 14/00Z ECENS AND 14/06Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SERVED AS THE
BASELINE FOR THE DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 8 ALASKA MEDIUM RANGE PACKAGE.
THIS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PULLS THE BULK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF ALASKA BETWEEN 18/18Z AND 19/12Z---AND ONE COULD USE THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL LATE DAY 5/EARLY DAY 6---WHEN THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH BEGIN TO ALTER THE TIMING...DEPTH AND TRAJECTORY OF
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS.

WITH THE MEANS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT...MINIMAL ALTERATIONS WERE
MADE TO THE SURFACE GRAPHICS THROUGH DAY 7. THE DAY 8 GRAPHIC DOES
INDICATE A WEAKER CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A COOLER
AIRMASS APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST
SIBERIA).

VOJTESAK

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