Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 301040
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
640 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL 30/06
UTC: TUTT  NOW LIES TO THE NORTHWEST...CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW
NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ON ITS WAKE...SHALLOW MOISTURE
ENTERED THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH BEST CONVERGENCE OVER THE FRENCH
ISLES. THIS IS TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODELS THEN PROJECTING RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...EXPECTING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVE TO LIKELY CLUSTER ON THE WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. DEEPER LAYER INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOST INTENSE IS LIKELY TO CLUSTER
ON THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

TUTT LOW IS TO MEANDER FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER ENTERS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER ON SATURDAY. THEY ARE THEN TO COMBINE
INTO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE IS TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WITH SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. A FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PERTURBATION IS TO PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS FEATURE.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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