Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 261228
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
827 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VALID 00Z FRI MAR 27 2015 - 00Z FRI APR 03 2015

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE THAT A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIMIT
ISLAND SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ASSOCIATED TRAILING/STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEAKENING. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TRADES WILL KICK IN THIS PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AROUND
SUNDAY SHOULD WHITTLE INTO THE AMBIENT RIDGE AND ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE RETURN. THIS LEADS INTO STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS WORKING MORE ERNESTLY INTO THE STATE
AROUND TUESDAY ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO FUEL A PATTERN WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK. THIS IS ALL BASED ON
A FAVORED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE GIVEN MODEST FORECAST SPREAD, ALBEIT
WITH SOME LATTER PERIOD TIMING ISSUES INHERENT WITH SMALLER SCALE
SYSTEMS.

SCHICHTEL


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