Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 281230
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VALID 00Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 00Z SAT SEP 05 2015


SHORT TERM---
THE 28/00Z HAWAI`I RAOB NETWORK IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE SOMEWHAT
OF A TRADEWIND INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERHEAD---IE A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PROFILE---OR TRANSITION ZONE (IN THE 850MB-700MB
LAYER). THIS DOES HAVE SOME FORECAST IMPLICATIONS THROUGH DAY 3
(1/00Z). WITH THE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF `IGNACIO `
IMPROVING/DRYING OUT TO SOME EXTENT--- PRECURSOR RAINFALL MAY BE
MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD INVOF `IGNACIO`S` STORM
TRACK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM CPHC CONCERNING
`IGNACIO`.

MEDIUM RANGE---
BEYOND DAY 3...BELIEVE THE 28/00Z ECENS/GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME---EXTENDING TO
PERHAPS DAY 5. AFTER DAY 5---BELIEVE THE `STRONGER` MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOLUTION (PER ECENS) WILL `WIN OUT` IN THE SUBTROPICS AND
DEVELOP CONTINUE WITH THE THEME OF SOME `BLOCKINESS` IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC. HOWEVER, THE `BLOCKINESS` SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM
ITS CURRENT LOCATION NEAR THE DATELINE TO ABOUT 160W (ALONG 40N).

VOJTESAK



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