Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 301135
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 00Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 00Z SUN MAY 08 2016

THE 30/00Z FORECAST CYCLE DID NOT THROW ANY SURPRISES AT THE
SUBTROPICS--- BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES AT
HIGH LATITUDE AND THE GULF OF ALASKA BEYOND DAY 6.

THE HAWAI`I FORECASTS LOOKED `ON TRACK` AND A BRIEF RELAXATION OF
THE TRADES (PERSISTENCE) CONTINUES TO BE PROJECTED IN THE THU-FRI
TIME FRAME --- AS A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EMERGES INVOF 160W.

THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, ECMWF
AND CANADIAN AFFECT THE ALASKA FORECAST REALM --- AND DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. BUT ALL AREAS AND
DETERMINISTIC DIFFERENCES SEEMINGLY CAN BE RESOLVED USING A BLEND
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BEYOND DAY 6 (7/00Z). AND FOR THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC --- THAT PHILOSOPHY `HOLDS TRUE`. RECOMMEND A
BLEND OF THE 30/00Z ECENS AND NAEFS AT DAY 6-7 TO MAINTAIN AN
`ENSEMBLE MEAN-PLACED LONG WAVE TROUGH` INVOF 150W LONGITUDE
(ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC) UNTIL A `NEW` NORTH PACIFIC STORM
TRACK CAN TAKE SHAPE ALONG 50N LATITUDE.

VOJTESAK



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