Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 301222
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
821 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VALID 00Z WED JUL 01 2015 - 00Z WED JUL 08 2015


THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
ALLOW A BRIEF PHASING OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES WITH ONE
FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE THURSDAY. THE 00Z/30 ECMWF
WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PHASING THAN THE 06Z/30 GFS. BOTH
MODELS THEN RETROGRADE THE COLUMN OF MOISTURE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REBUILDS BY THE WEEKEND. FIVE-DAY QPF THROUGH 00Z/06 JULY IS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH-OF-AN-INCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS, WITH
UPWARDS OF TWO OR THREE INCHES NEAR MAUNA LOA.


CISCO

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