Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FXHW01 KWNH 131209
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
708 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

VALID 00Z SUN FEB 14 2016 - 00Z SUN FEB 21 2016

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
OF SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  FROM SAT INTO SUN THE
STATE WILL BE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG EASTERN
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST,
LEADING TO EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.  THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PASSES
THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.00 TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN 1.25 INCH RANGE WILL LIKELY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
INCREASE IN RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL PROVIDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL AS WELL.
THERE SHOULD BE A DRIER TREND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES AN AXIS OF SHEARED MID LEVEL
ENERGY AND LEADING MOISTURE SOUTHWARD.  PERHAPS RELATED TO SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES ALOFT BY THU-SAT, LATEST ECMWF RUNS DO NOT BRING PWATS
QUITE AS LOW AS THE 00Z/06Z GFS.  WINDS WILL TREND SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER DURING THU-SAT AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
STEADILY WEAKENS.

RAUSCH

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.