Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 301222
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
821 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 00Z TUE MAY 31 2016 - 00Z TUE JUN 07 2016

THE MODELS MONDAY SHOW A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND REACHING THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEKEND.  IN RESPONSE, THE
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE MOST OF THE WEEK AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVERAGES 1.25-1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
CENTERED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THESE PW VALUES ARE 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.  THERE AREN`T CURRENTLY SIGNALS FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF DEEP LAYERED ASCENT APART FROM TYPICAL WINDWARD LOCATIONS THAT
FOCUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

PETERSEN

$$





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