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FXUS06 KWBC 291902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 29 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 04 - 08 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND NEAR THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE REGION, WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. A RIDGE IS
FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A ZONAL JET STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS DEPICT TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE U.S. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO
MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. TODAY`S 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD
INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CONUS AND ALASKA EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHEAST, FLORIDA, AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. IN GENERAL THE EXPECTED HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE QUITE SMALL IN
MAGNITUDE ALTHOUGH MODERATE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN
ALASKA.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS/ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS
ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, WESTERN
ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN LOWER 48 STATES AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FURTHER TILTING THE ODDS TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THAT REGION. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY THE FORECAST OF SMALL MAGNITUDE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 12 2016

THE WEEK-2 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
EAST-CENTRAL CANADA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE CONUS,
WITH MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAY`S BLENDED HEIGHT
CHART INDICATES SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES,
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST, AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CONUS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN MAINE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR
NORTHERN FLORIDA ENHANCING PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS STILL FAVORED FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE
REGION. TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THAT REGION AND WESTERN ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AND RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030728 - 19810807 - 19730810 - 20070709 - 19900713


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030728 - 19810807 - 19900714 - 20070708 - 20080804


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 04 - 08 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 12 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    A
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    B     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    B     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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