Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 010742
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

VALID 12Z WED JUL 01 2015 - 12Z FRI JUL 03 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
SOUTHEAST...

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR NEW ENGLAND...

...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S...

A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE
VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
SPC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY OF THE SAME
AREAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT SOME OF THE SAME AREAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN
AS A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. FROM CANADA.

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF MAINE BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHEAST.

ACROSS THE WEST, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AREAS
OF TERRAIN.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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