Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 261948
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

VALID 00Z THU JUL 27 2017 - 00Z SAT JUL 29 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER/FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS...

MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE 100 TO 110+ DEGREES. JUST TO THE
NORTH, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
FRIDAY, SPANNING FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO THE DEL-MAR-VA REGION.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN ALONG THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RISK AREA FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BY FRIDAY, THE
RISK AREA WILL EXPAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST. AREAL AVERAGES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS BE 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND 2 TO 4
INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.

THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTS TO THE NORTH. AREAS
OF HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HAVE AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE CANYONS. AS USUAL, MUCH OF THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONGREGATE ACROSS THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIGRATING
TOWARD THE VALLEY FLOORS. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL WANE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE LOSS OF HEATING.

CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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