Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 290707
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 29 2014 - 12Z SUN AUG 31 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST...

...AFTER A DRY AND COMFORTABLE START, WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE COOLER AIR FLOODS THE NORTHWEST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN AREA OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD EXCEED 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CANADA AFTER CROSSING THE
UPPER LAKES.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP DRIVE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.  HERE TOO,
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.

ALONG THE EAST COAST, HIGH PRESSURE AND COMFORTABLY DRY WEATHER
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HUMIDITY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO DRIVE
APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDWEST AS
MUCH OF THE COOLER AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE US CANADIAN BORDER.

FARTHER WEST...A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE
NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY  THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

KOCIN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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