Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 192041
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 19 2017

SYNOPSIS: A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO TRACK FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS
DURING THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA DURING THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE
MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE SOUTHEAST, SUN, JAN 22.

SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, SUN, JAN 22.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE
NORTHEAST, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, MON, JAN 23.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF MAINE, TUE, JAN 24.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, SUN, JAN 22.

HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUN-MON, JAN 22-JAN 23.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND
THE SOUTHWEST, SUN, JAN 22.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST, MON, JAN 23.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST, SUN-TUE, JAN 22-JAN 24.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS, TUE, JAN 24.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WED-THU, JAN 25-JAN 26.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS, MON-WED, JAN 23-JAN 25.

HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS, MON, JAN
23.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, SUN-MON, JAN
22-JAN 23.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
MAINLAND ALASKA, TUE-THU, JAN 24-JAN 26.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH COAST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, FRI-SAT, JAN 27-JAN 28.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, FRI, JAN 27.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS, FRI-WED, JAN 27-FEB 1.

MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE SOUTHWEST,
FRI-SUN, JAN 27-JAN 29.

HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, FRI-SUN, JAN 27-JAN 29.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE
SOUTHEAST, SUN-WED, JAN 29-FEB 1.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, THE NORTHEAST, CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY JANUARY 22 - THURSDAY JANUARY 26: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN (2 INCHES OR GREATER OF RAINFALL IN
A 24-HOUR PERIOD) TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE
MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE SOUTHEAST ON JAN 22. AN
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE
LOW MAY INCREASE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
JAN 22. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW (1 INCH OR GREATER OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN 24-HOURS) TO
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST, THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, JAN 23. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. AS THIS STORM EXITS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE
CONUS, PARTS OF MAINE MAY RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW ON JAN 24 (1.5 INCHES OR GREATER
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD).



A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST ON JAN 22, BRINGING
HIGH WINDS (40 KNOTS OR GREATER) TO COASTAL PARTS OF CALIFORNIA ON JAN 22 AND
HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS (24 FEET OR GREATER) TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, JAN 22-23. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONTS MAY ALSO BRING HEAVY RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND
THE SOUTHWEST ON JAN 22.



SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
JAN 23. THESE SURFACE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO
BRING HEAVY SNOW (0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OR GREATER IN A 24-HOUR
PERIOD) TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST ON JAN 23. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAY SUPPORT HIGH
WINDS (40 KNOTS OR GREATER) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST JAN
22 TO 24. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CONUS, POTENTIALLY BRINGING HEAVY SNOW (0.75 INCHES OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OR GREATER IN 24-HOURS) TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON JAN 24.



COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS BY JAN 25, AS THE SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS IN THE AREA MIGRATES EASTWARD.
THIS PATTERN FAVORS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CALIFORNIA, THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST JAN 25 TO 26.



SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY JAN 23,
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA BY JAN 25. THIS STORM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS MAY BRING HIGH WINDS (40 KNOTS OR GREATER) TO PARTS
OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, JAN 23-25,
HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS (24 FEET OR GREATER) FOR COASTAL PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS JAN 23, AND HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW (3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
24-HOURS) TO PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST MAINLAND ALASKA, JAN
24 TO 26.

FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 27 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 02: AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN FAVORS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, ENHANCING CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW (2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT OR GREATER) ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH COAST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, JAN 27-28 AND HIGH WINDS (40 KNOTS OR GREATER) ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA.



SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, BRINGING COLD, ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS JAN 27. A SMALLER EMBEDDED AREA OF MODERATE RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR JAN
27-29, AND A HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST JAN 27-29.
A SLIGHT AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND THE SOUTHWEST, JAN 30 TO FEB 2. BY JAN 29, THE AXIS OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EASTWARD, BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EASTWARD. AN AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE SOUTHEAST, JAN 29 TO FEB 1.



ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID ON JANUARY 17, THE
COVERAGE OF SEVERE OR GREATER DROUGHT FOR THE CONUS DECREASED FROM 7.96 TO
6.77%. ONE CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DROUGHT AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$



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