Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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990
FXUS02 KWNH 290554
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 12Z MON MAY 02 2016 - 12Z FRI MAY 06 2016

...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES SHEAR OVER THE ERN US MON TO
SUPPORT A LINGERING RAINFALL SWATH ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING LOWS
AND THEIR TRAILING FRONT. MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENERGIES OVER THE SWRN US/S-CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD PRODUCE COOLED
PCPN WITH SOME ENHANCED SNOWS OVER FAVORED ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS
ENERGY IS SLATED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE SRN/SERN US EARLY-MID
NEXT WEEK THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK TO REFOCUS
PCPN/WAVES ALONG/WELL OVERTOP THE LEAD DRAPED FRONT. THIS OCCURS
IN CONJUCTURE WITH NRN STREAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION ALOFT NEXT WEEK
OVERTOP WITH EXPECTED EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COOLING/UNSETTLING
E-CENTRAL NOAM TROUGH AS IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING
W-CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...POTENT ERN PACIFIC
SYSTEMS APPROACH TO THE WEST COAST IN RE-EMERGING SPLIT FLOW
SHOULD PROVE GRADUAL NEXT WEEK GIVEN OVERALL FLOW
AMPLIFICATION...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY USHER INLAND WIDESPREAD AND
COOLING WET FLOW LATER WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE EMPHASIS INTO CA AND
THE SOUTHWEST.

OVERALL...THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED
FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE 18 UTC GEFS MEAN AND THE 12 UTC
NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH CONTINUITY. THESE ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS ARE NOT AS COMPATABLE AS NORMALLY PREFERRED...BUT
CERTAINLY OFFER BETTER CONTINUITY THAN RECENT RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF
THE DETERMINITSIC MODELS IN SENSITIVE PATTERN WITH UNCERTAIN FLOW
DETAILS/INTERACTIONS.

SCHICHTEL



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