Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 230159
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
959 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017

...VALID 01Z SAT SEP 23 2017 - 12Z SAT SEP 23 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WNW CWCH 20 SE GPZ 20 S RWF OFK 10 SW BVN 25 SW BBW
10 NNW LBF 20 SE TIF 30 NNW ONL 25 SW MHE 20 WNW ATY 10 SW FFM
DTL 15 E KGAF 25 SSE CXWN 45 SE CYQK 35 WNW CWCH.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 S MMCS 25 SSW HMN 15 ESE CQC 30 S RTN 25 NNE LAA 50 N GCK
10 ESE GUY 35 WNW PVW 45 NNE HOB 10 NNE MRF 30 ENE MMCU.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 S MMCS 10 ESE SRR 50 WSW CAO 25 SSE SPD 30 NE DHT 50 NNE CVN
30 WNW HOB 85 W MRF.


...CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO THE MARGINAL RISK
AREAS...ORIENTING NORTHERN PORTION TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY DVLPG
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AT 00Z FROM CNTL/NE NEBRASKA NEWD INTO SW
MN..WHILE MINIMIZING THREAT THROUGH AREAS OF SRN NEB INTO NW KS
WHERE THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY OF THE HI
RES OR GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD AS
THAT REGION IS WITHIN A RELATIVE MIN OF INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MSTR.  THE STORMS FROM NEB NEWD INTO SW MN...AIDED BY JET STREAK
PUNCHING NEWD FROM THE CNTL PLAINS..HAVE SOME MDTLY HIGH MLCAPES
TO WORK OFF OF THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND
ORIENTATION OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE MEAN LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME TRAINING POTNL BUT CONSENSUS OF HI RES GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
THREAT OF ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
ACRS NM INTO W TEXAS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS / SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK REMAINS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF MEXICO...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH ARIZONA MAY HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER...BUT BY LATE
NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE STATIONARY OR SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE...FOSTERING
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE INCREASED HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE EMANATING FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MAKE FOR A MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESS. THE PATTERN ALSO FEATURES A STRONG
MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR TRAINING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$




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