Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 280831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...VALID 12Z FRI JUL 28 2017 - 12Z SAT JUL 29 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SE MRH 20 ENE ILM 10 E MEB SVH 25 S 1A5 20 SE ANB 60 ESE NMM
30 N JAN 20 SSW LLQ 15 NE MWT 20 S HRO 10 NE MKL 30 SSW GLW FFT
20 WSW 3I2 25 SE ZZV 15 S FKL 30 NE FIG 15 NNW ABE 10 NNW FRG
15 SSE HYA 115 E CQX.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 WNW MMHO 80 WSW OLS 60 SSW CGZ 20 NE FFZ 25 NNW PRC
55 WSW 4BL 50 NE 4BL 10 WNW CCU 10 ESE FNL IBM 10 SW AIA
15 WNW OGA 10 ESE GLD 30 NNW SPD 55 NNW TCC 25 ESE CQC 60 S ABQ
10 NNE TCS 20 NNW DMN 70 SSW DMN 140 NW MMCU.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WNW MMHO 45 WNW OLS 50 ESE IWA FLG 20 W CEZ 10 NW GUC
15 E DEN 10 SSW AKO 35 ESE LIC 35 E TAD 45 SSE RTN 20 N CQC
30 ESE 4SL 65 SSE GNT 25 NNW SVC 50 SSE SAD 110 S DUG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 SE WAL 15 W JGG 20 S CHO 20 SSE HSP 10 S MKJ 30 E 1A6
15 NNE JKL 25 E HTS 25 NNW 48I 10 ESE HLG 25 ENE BTP FIG RDG
10 N BLM 35 SSE FOK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 ESE OXB 10 WSW WAL 15 S 2W6 HEF 15 NW KW66 SHD 20 SSE EKN
20 SE MGW 10 SE AGC 10 ENE IDI 35 WNW CXY 20 NNE APG 10 S MJX
70 SSE HTO.



...MID ATLANTIC TO THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...

A SYSTEM MORE REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THE GFS SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS DROPPING AS
LOW AS 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.  A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN VIRGINIAS INTO THE DELMARVA REGION LATE FRI AND EARLY
SAT.  WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PWS INCREASING TO
1.75-2+ INCHES)...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS.  HEAVIEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG ITS WARM FRONT...WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET
DYNAMICS SUPPORTING STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING TROWAL IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT SOME
HEAVIER TOTALS NORTHWEST OF THE LOW.  THE ANTICIPATED END RESULT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SWATH OF HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA...MD AND THE NORTHERN VIRGINAS TO SOUTHERN NJ.
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.  THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
RUNOFF CONCERNS...PROMPTING A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...DEEP MOISTURE (PWS INCREASING TO AT
ABOVE 2.25) POOLING AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND RUNOFF CONCERNS AS IT AS IT DROPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THOUGH THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS.  OVERALL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS ORGANIZED...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THIS REGION.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

FORTIFIED IN PART BY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW...AMPLE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

PEREIRA
$$




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