Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 021407
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

...VALID 15Z THU OCT 02 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 03 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E EWK 20 WSW EMP 25 N EMP 20 W FOE 20 SSE FNB 20 N STJ
40 NE STJ 35 ESE LWD 10 ENE MPZ 15 N SQI RFD 20 ESE JVL
15 NW BUU 10 WNW UES MWC 10 E MKE 15 ESE RAC 15 E UGN 20 E PWK
25 NNE GYY 30 NE GYY 15 WSW BEH 10 WNW LWA 20 NNW LWA 20 WNW BIV
20 W MKG 35 NW MKG 20 SW LDM 10 NNW LDM 10 SE MBL 25 SW CAD RQB
25 W AMN 20 WNW FPK 10 S BTL GSH 25 WNW GUS 20 SW LAF 15 WNW FOA
30 WNW POF 15 SSE FLP 20 E RKR 10 WSW RKR 35 ENE MLC 20 SSW MKO
10 N OKM 25 E WLD 30 ESE AAO 35 E EWK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW IXD 15 S LWC 10 E FOE TOP 15 NNE TOP 15 S STJ 15 SSE STJ
30 E CDJ 30 ESE IRK UIN 25 NW IJX 20 NW SPI SPI 15 NNE ALN
20 S SUS 20 N TBN 55 NNW SGF 60 N JLN 45 ENE CNU 35 ESE UKL
30 E UKL 20 WSW IXD.


1400 UTC UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK.  THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS FOR OVERRUNNING
CONVECTION WITH MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SOUTH
SOUTH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS FRONT THIS MORNING---WITH TRAINING OF CELLS LIKELY.  IN
ADDITION---CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AHEAD OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
 WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ALONG BOTH
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND THE UPSTREAM EASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS AREAS
OF CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE FFG VALUES HAVE LOWERED FROM EARLIER
RAINS.  SEE WPC`S MPD #0404 VALID UNTIL 1600 UTC FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ACROSS THIS REGION.

ORAVEC


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


OK/KS/AR/MO/IL/WI/IN/MI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THIS PERIOD ACROSS IL/MO AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.   THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE
UPSTREAM NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME
FROM THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCI FOR ACTIVE
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD IN A REGION OF WELL-DEFINED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND AN AXIS OF PW VALUES 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN (1.50-1.75"). CONVECTION HAS BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO TO THE NORTH OF AN EAST-WEST
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
WHERE TRAINING IN A WEST TO EAST DIRECTION IS IN PROGRESS DUE TO
BROAD 25+ KT INFLOW OVERRIDING THE BOUNDARY.  THIS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY 16Z AS RAP-BASED MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES REMAIN >1000 J/KG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT/MORNING HOURS.  UPSTREAM CONVECTION PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA, POTENTIALLY PROLONGING HEAVY RAINFALL
ISSUES ACROSS MO.

AREAS OF NORTHEAST IL/IN/MI FARTHER UP THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK FARTHER DOWN THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.  IN
THESE AREAS, LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS NARROWER IN SCOPE (AND GREATER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED ACROSS IL/IN/MI) SO THE OVERALL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED.  HOWEVER, FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF IL, NORTHERN IN, AND PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ARE RELATIVELY LOW, SO INCLUDED
THEM WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AS A PRECAUTION.  INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE RISK ACROSS EASTERN OK SHOULD
BE INTERMITTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ROTH
$$





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