Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 010757
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

...VALID 12Z WED JUN 01 2016 - 12Z THU JUN 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E ABI 25 SSW SPS 15 SSW CHK 10 WSW OUN 15 NW MLC 15 W RKR
10 SSE RKR 20 SSW DEQ 15 SW 4F4 20 E UTS 10 ESE SGR 30 ENE KRP
30 WNW KOPM 20 NE PIL MMMA 60 SW MMRX 55 SE MMMY 50 WNW MMAN
40 N MMMV 55 WSW MMPG 40 W DRT 20 E 6R6 45 N 6R6 30 SSE MAF
15 SW BPG 35 NNW SJT 35 NNE SJT 15 E ABI.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NE HSE 15 SSW HSE 15 ESE MRH 20 ESE NCA 15 SW ILM 15 S DPL
20 SSW EDE 15 S ECG 10 WNW FFA 20 NE HSE.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE ACT 15 WSW LHB 45 WNW VCT 15 N BKS 25 SW BKS 30 SSW MMNL
30 WNW MMNL 25 SSE MMPG 20 N MMPG 20 SSW ECU 35 WNW 6R9
10 ESE 7F9 10 S SEP 10 WNW F18 25 ENE ACT.



..SRN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS/SE CO/E NM...
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN THIS PD FOR
POTNL HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINS AS A WEAK UPR TROF
EJECTS OUT OF THE SW TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS.  AIRMASS SOUTH OF A
SLOW SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACRS OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE REGION
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SFC DPS IN THE LOW 60S
EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS ERN PORTIONS OF NM...WITH A RATHER FLAT
GRADIENT WIND FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACRS TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEAK QUASI E-W FRONT NEAR THE
OK/TX BORDER...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL FOCUS AND THEREFORE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
PD WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.  WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CONDS AHEAD OF THE
APCHG UPR TROF SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS OF CO/ERN NM WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD
ACRS WRN TX WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/SW UPR FLOW.  A MORE ISOLD
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PSBL IN THOSE AREAS TODAY GIVEN
EXPECTED TALL SKINNY CAPES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND EXPECTED SLOW
STORM MOTION.   THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF FROM THE WEST SHOULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT JET PATRN
ACRS SW TX THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD TOWARD PARTS OF CNTL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN TX WED NIGHT.  THE INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ACRS SRN
TX EAST OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL PROJECTED MLCAPES..WEAK SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
PWS OF 1.75 TO 2+ INCHES.  THUS EXPECT THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
AND POTNL MCS TO DVLP ACRS SRN TX AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AREA WED NIGHT WHERE HAVE INDICATED A MDT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS.    WHILE EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINS ACRS SRN TX...THE
AXIS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH PWS EXTENDING NWD THRU ERN TX WILL SERVE
AS A POTNL FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CNVTV RAINS AS WELL..THOUGH
TIMING OF DVLPMENT HERE IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. EXISTING VERY LOW
FFG VALUES ACRS CNTL TX SUPPORT AN EXTENSION OF MDT RISK NWD INTO
THAT AREA WHERE THINING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE MORNING FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE
DVLPMENT AIDED BY UP UPSTREAM EARLY MRNG MCS MOVING EWD FROM W TX.
 FARTHER N..WHILE INFLOW WILL BE WEAK INTO THE QSNTY FRONT...THE
POOLING OF MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME SLOW MOVING
STORMS THERE.  CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE PSBL.

...COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA
POST-TROPICAL BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THE NC COAST LINE
AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEWD OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.  WITH HALF OF CIRC
STILL OVER THE WARMER WATERS...CONVECTIVE BANDS DVLPG OFFSHORE
WILL HAVE POTNL TO WRAP BACK INLAND ESPECIALLY ACRS THE OUTER
BANDS OF NC ALONG WITH SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER LAND ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK.   SOME OF THE 00Z HI RES MODELS ARE
QUITE ROBUST ACRS PORTIONS OF ERN NC INDICATING POTNL FOR AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. BASED ON THAT POTNL...HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS ACRS EXTREME ERN NC.

SULLIVAN
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