Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 062147
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 07/0000 UTC THRU MAR 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE NATION AGAIN THIS
PERIOD..WITH RIDGING ALOFT STILL HOLDING FIRM OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.  EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS DRY PATTERN WILL BE THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF FL.


...GREAT LAKES...

NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWS THRU THIS AREA..BUT WITH
SYSTEMS BEING QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE REMAINING QUITE
MEAGER WITH NO GULF INFLOW..WATER EQUIVALENTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.  MODEL QPFS ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH WATER
EQUIVALENTS BELOW 0.25 INCH.


...FL...

THE PLUME OF HIGHER PWS PERSISTING BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THRU THE FL PENINSULA..ALONG WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA..ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY..WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWERS OVER PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN FL.  THE NAM
QPF MAY BE A LITTLE HEAVY..BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE LOOKS
A BIT TOO LIGHT..SO WENT BETWEEN THESE "EXTREME" SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WPC QPF.  ALTHOUGH SOME 0.50+ WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE
LIKELY..ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.


DAYS 2/3...

***TEXAS TO THE DEEP SOUTH***

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL ENABLE
ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE.  AT THE SURFACE, A
SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO DEVELOP, THUS ADVECTING APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TOWARDS TEXAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL FURTHER PROMOTE
VERTICAL MOTION AND RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT.  THE GREATEST TOTALS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST, WHERE 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE DAY 3 PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AREA WAS NOTED, IT WAS GETTING CLOSE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR THE TEXAS COAST COAST REGION.  THIS COULD BE THE
CASE WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.  THE
ECMWF WAS THE PRIMARILY CONTRIBUTOR TO QPF, ALONG WITH THE GFS AND
BIASED CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MODEL.


***FLORIDA PENINSULA***

A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OUT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEPARATE A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH FROM THE TROPICAL AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTH.  SUSTAINED EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
HIGH TO THE NORTH, COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES PROGGED TO BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES, WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.  MOST OF THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, MAINLY
SOUTH OF ORLANDO.  ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SET-UP.  WE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF EACH DAY.


***UPPER PLAINS TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES***

A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER VORTMAX PROGRESSING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.  LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH WITH EACH OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS.  THE ECMWF/GFS WAS THE
PRIMARY SOURCE FOR QPF.


TERRY/SULLIVAN/HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 538205 538191 533180 528172 526161 523148 522141 519136
      513129 510128 506129 503132 500134 495125 492122 489116
      485108 482096 481090 479085 473063 464044 460035 454029
      455040 459051 463075 475119 478122 479129 483131 486136
      488147 492149 495153 501162 502169 501177 503189 509196
      522212 526220 530222 533219 534213 535208 538205
 0.01 545028 545017 544011 542003 539998 536995 533989 524983
      519981 513980 512978 509977 503977 500977 499973 499966
      497961 497952 497947 496945 496937 494934 494929 497922
      503920 506916 508911 510905 512896 513890 514883 513878
      510867 507861 505854 501844 496832 494830 490830 486834
      483839 479841 478836 479832 482827 485821 486816 491808
      493797 497784 499768 498753 499747 499739 500736 499731
      499727 498723 494714 491710 487709 483708 476709 468716
      470710 472704 474698 474692 473688 471687 467691 456711
      452714 449711 445713 442716 450720 449725 446727 444729
      433732 433735 435736 436740 433742 430742 429745 427749
      423760 421765 419771 415779 414787 412793 413809 415815
      418820 423824 426829 429833 432838 433842 434847 433851
      431854 427855 426860 427864 431865 434864 436866 440870
      449875 453877 454886 453894 454902 455911 457916 460920
      465920 468920 470922 471927 466937 466952 470964 474969
      477972 486977 492980 495983 491986 490990 490000 491007
      493013 496018 499021 501027 505040 517062 522068 529069
      532068 536062 536057 536050 534044 533041 532036 538035
      545028
 0.01 469716 467715 465716 464717 466720 467719 469716
 0.01 464722 462721 461722 460724 459725 459726 459729 460731
      461728 462728 463725 464722
 0.01 352088 350082 345079 342074 338076 334080 333086 333088
      336091 338093 338097 339102 341102 343099 347094 350090
      352088
 0.01 300806 297799 292795 287791 282787 280783 279778 276777
      272779 266783 263788 251797 248803 247808 246811 243817
      244822 246825 258819 263815 270812 277808 284809 297809
      300806
 0.01 283055 284043 281037 277036 273038 269042 266045 263049
      260053 257057 253065 252072 252075 253077 255082 261083
      266083 270079 274076 276071 281061 283055
 0.01 265966 266964 266962 265960 265959 264960 263961 261962
      260964 259965 258966 258968 258970 259972 261971 262970
      263969 264968 265967 265966
 0.25 274797 273794 271792 267792 264794 262795 261797 259800
      258803 257805 258809 260810 264809 265808 267806 270804
      272801 273799 274797
 0.50 270800 270797 270796 268796 268795 266796 265796 264797
      263798 263800 262801 261802 261803 261805 261807 262808
      263807 264806 265806 266804 267804 268802 270800 270800

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 452610 462614 459637 457645 455650 454656 451662 446666
      441665 435664 435659 436651 438646 441640 443632 446623
      452610
 0.01 538005 538996 536988 531978 527970 523968 521967 520962
      524959 527954 527945 525939 521930 523924 524918 522911
      520905 517901 515895 509887 503880 495875 491873 489866
      485856 480849 474838 471833 469828 463822 459822 456825
      448848 448860 454867 457869 457871 461877 461894 462898
      464904 469913 471918 470926 471928 473929 475935 479944
      482949 479953 477954 476958 475965 477977 483986 486989
      490990 494993 501994 508999 522012 527015 530016 532014
      535011 538005
 0.01 495146 496135 491127 488122 484115 476105 469093 466087
      463079 460061 460052 463045 464041 465038 466028 463019
      461008 459002 457992 450959 447952 446949 443946 441944
      440939 440927 440910 439890 437881 436870 432865 430862
      427862 422863 419862 419856 417851 413849 410848 408851
      408856 408869 409878 409884 410893 412908 412912 414917
      415924 418930 419943 420951 421962 422969 422980 423983
      424989 427994 432999 434009 436015 438025 440032 441041
      441045 443048 446055 445061 444067 441068 436069 434073
      442075 447079 452084 458096 464112 471128 470137 472140
      482141 486144 489148 493148 495146
 0.01 473680 472674 470672 463672 460674 458676 454682 451688
      450696 449703 448707 445709 442711 440713 435719 430723
      427729 421731 417732 415729 414725 415720 418712 422707
      429702 430700 430696 429694 426693 423691 420692 414696
      411702 411709 412719 411727 412737 414740 414743 416747
      416751 412753 410755 409757 409763 413767 412776 408783
      401785 398786 394789 386796 381800 378805 373811 373815
      375817 378813 381810 383809 385811 391813 395816 399819
      400822 403827 406833 412836 414835 416832 417828 418822
      419816 421808 423802 427798 432793 435785 436777 437773
      440770 443766 446764 448766 452770 456776 460783 466787
      471786 475780 477773 477767 475762 471756 468752 458741
      456741 454736 455727 456725 456720 459714 463708 466702
      467699 466694 468687 471683 473680
 0.01 426063 427060 426060 425058 425057 423057 423058 423060
      424063 426063 426063
 0.01 381078 381074 378070 376066 373063 370061 367063 369066
      373069 374075 375080 377083 380081 381078
 0.01 377949 377937 375926 373918 371911 369908 364903 359898
      353898 348897 344896 342895 333891 325887 320883 309883
      302885 298891 294899 291906 274923 270935 270941 268943
      267949 266954 262962 250976 246991 240995 238997 237002
      238008 239012 239026 239037 236046 236055 243067 245075
      246079 249083 256087 260090 264091 268091 270089 273086
      276081 277077 279072 285067 295059 305059 308060 312063
      316069 320077 323083 329089 332092 333097 337099 339102
      341111 346112 346109 344105 344099 346096 349092 352090
      354085 348076 340075 338068 339063 340055 338047 333040
      328036 327031 329028 334021 335010 335998 339988 344981
      350976 355972 359970 363972 368972 370969 374963 377949
 0.01 372053 370052 368052 367054 365054 363054 361054 359056
      361056 363054 365054 367054 368054 370053 372053
 0.01 360069 362067 361065 360065 359064 358065 358067 360069
      360069
 0.01 284804 283798 279795 277791 276784 273758 271744 266737
      262737 257739 255742 254747 251757 249766 247776 248788
      249795 247800 244809 243814 246817 251811 254811 255816
      257820 260823 264825 268823 272821 274818 277813 279809
      284804
 0.25 334934 331923 329918 325916 322918 319922 314923 309922
      304920 297922 291928 281943 276951 274955 272961 268969
      266978 267983 270987 270993 269997 273005 274007 271009
      268011 259016 258019 260022 263024 265027 265037 264044
      261049 256056 250060 250064 253069 255072 260074 265074
      269072 273065 279057 286051 293046 298039 301036 303032
      303019 304014 307010 310009 314010 317008 319003 320996
      320988 321976 325966 328958 332945 334934
 0.25 275803 275797 272793 268792 264791 259793 256795 254800
      256804 260805 265806 269806 272805 275803
 0.50 320956 319947 316943 312939 307937 302935 296934 291937
      288941 281950 279956 277962 275968 277973 283975 288972
      297967 307961 311962 314961 317961 319958 320956
 0.50 292031 293027 294023 293018 292016 289016 287017 285020
      283022 283024 282028 282032 283034 286037 289035 290033
      292031
 0.50 271799 271797 270796 268796 267796 266796 264796 262796
      262797 261797 259799 260801 261801 263802 265802 267802
      268802 270802 271799


24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 484674 483664 480660 476656 474655 470657 468659 467661
      463665 461669 458674 453686 451691 449697 447704 445708
      439719 434729 431735 429740 427748 429750 432755 435758
      446760 451756 454752 455749 456745 454740 455732 456727
      467705 481688 483680 484674
 0.01 475815 473806 470797 465792 459790 452791 448799 446802
      446807 445811 445817 446828 446834 445840 441846 436851
      433858 432862 435866 440866 447863 453858 457852 461849
      464849 469843 474826 475815
 0.01 426760 425758 425755 425753 424753 423751 423749 422747
      422746 420746 420747 420749 419752 419754 419757 419759
      420759 421761 422762 423763 424763 425761 426760
 0.01 429824 428810 427796 426791 425784 423780 420778 415783
      413795 413807 414821 415828 417832 417837 419842 423844
      426841 428836 428831 429824
 0.01 382079 380068 377064 370058 374052 373048 362052 348053
      343051 344046 342041 341029 338019 336010 335005 337000
      339995 341990 341982 346982 353981 357987 363984 369967
      371957 373950 373941 373934 373927 372919 371908 371900
      370894 369882 370876 370869 370864 370856 371847 369834
      369824 367809 365804 362800 359798 355800 349807 344814
      341821 335831 329838 318849 310855 302861 291870 285876
      279883 273902 271913 266923 262929 257933 250941 246948
      239964 236970 236976 234985 233991 233995 234000 236002
      240005 242008 247016 253023 260029 264031 268032 279035
      286039 290045 301063 307069 315072 322077 325081 328084
      332086 336087 343085 346080 350076 353073 357071 362070
      365070 367072 370075 372080 373082 378083 382079
 0.01 336765 333758 331754 326751 319750 313752 309755 305760
      302766 299778 295784 289786 280788 272791 266793 255798
      247800 243803 242807 245809 249808 255805 261805 273808
      279810 286811 289815 296818 309820 320802 332779 335771
      336765
 0.25 357834 357832 357830 356828 355828 354830 353832 353833
      353835 353837 353839 353841 353844 354845 355843 356843
      356841 356839 357837 357835 357834
 0.25 350873 349866 348862 342856 333854 326855 322857 314862
      307866 299872 292878 290881 288887 293893 293899 292903
      288914 285923 281930 275939 270945 256956 251964 248974
      247980 248987 248997 250002 253005 256010 259010 261009
      265007 267006 270007 279009 284010 290011 300010 306009
      310007 316002 322995 326985 329974 330961 332949 335939
      344922 346912 348899 349885 350873
 0.25 321046 321044 320043 318041 317041 316041 315042 314043
      315044 316045 317046 318046 320046 321046
 0.25 312773 310768 307768 305771 303781 301786 298791 286793
      282795 278799 280803 286804 295808 299809 304808 307804
      308798 310786 311775 312773
 0.50 337917 338905 337895 336885 336874 335866 333863 329862
      322864 314868 307871 301875 299878 299883 301893 298901
      296908 293915 288922 281935 277941 272947 263956 258962
      254970 254981 256988 259996 262997 266996 276996 284996
      293995 302994 309991 313987 318980 321971 321959 321951
      325943 328936 334926 337917
 1.00 328915 328906 327900 326892 323887 319883 315885 311896
      304906 298916 285935 279944 272952 268956 265961 263967
      262974 263980 266984 273986 279987 285986 289985 301979
      305976 307971 308962 309956 311949 314945 320935 325925
      328915
 1.50 321922 321915 321910 319907 316905 313906 307911 301918
      292932 281945 272958 269967 270974 272978 279980 283981
      288979 294974 298966 305949 309941 314935 319928 321922
 2.00 314926 314921 313919 306918 302921 299927 296933 292938
      284947 277958 275965 276972 278975 281976 285975 288972
      291968 295962 301949 307938 314927 314926
 3.00 294949 294947 292949 290951 288953 287955 285958 284960
      285964 287962 288960 290957 292954 293952 294949

$$




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