Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 23/0000 UTC THRU JUL 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL PLAINS---MID MS VALLEY---OH VALLEY--CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING INITIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE OH VALLEY EXPECTED DAY 1.  CONVECTION
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WHERE
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED IN A
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM
THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN  MID ATLANTIC.  STILL A LOT OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT---LEADING TO RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS STRETCHING FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY---OH VALLEY---CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY WHERE
CONVECTION MAY MAXIMIZE IN THE 0000-1200 UTC TIME PERIOD.

UPPER GREAT LAKES

A SEPARATE AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER AREA--EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES DAY 1.  STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS AFFECTING AREAS FROM
FAR NORTHEAST MN---ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND INTO THE NORTHERN
L.P.

NORTHWEST MEXICO---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO--NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES DAY 1.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.  MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM/FAR SOUTHWEST TX REGION IN
THE VICINITY OF SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT FEATURES OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO.

CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST

AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DAY 1 AS
IT SPINS OFF THE UPPER TX/LA COASTAL REGION.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THIS CIRCULATION
FROM THE UPPER TX COAST---EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
GULF COAST AND INTO NORTHERN FL.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 512921 512909 512898 511890 510886 508879 503866 500857
      498851 493835 488823 482796 475783 467767 464761 461755
      455746 422718 415708 416689 418676 419668 417659 416651
      414646 409644 402646 395648 390651 385655 381659 375671
      371686 369694 367700 366707 364712 356737 350758 347766
      348773 347784 346789 344791 337798 325805 321809 318810
      315809 313806 313802 312792 307784 303782 296782 289785
      283783 278784 274787 269790 268794 266794 264796 262797
      257797 255799 250805 257813 259816 256817 256821 255828
      256835 258841 259850 263864 264869 265872 267880 270895
      272909 273927 273934 275941 278945 280949 281956 284960
      293964 301977 306988 314981 315979 316976 318973 318969
      323956 325946 329941 334939 342939 348941 350950 351956
      351961 348973 348982 346989 341004 335014 329022 326017
      322016 314015 310019 308024 306026 303029 299029 288023
      285024 283030 280035 274035 268035 263033 257032 251030
      243029 237031 232031 231033 229037 227038 225052 227059
      229061 232064 236069 240072 245073 249077 258084 268092
      279098 282101 285106 285115 286119 291123 297128 301131
      308133 312133 316135 319138 328144 330146 333147 337142
      340135 342133 345132 359134 365135 369133 380126 386123
      387117 381114 374113 370111 366106 366098 371093 373090
      375091 379096 381097 385091 390080 407061 409057 407052
      404046 399042 397040 397036 397029 398025 404014 408010
      410005 412003 412997 412989 407955 406948 405941 404938
      404933 404924 403914 404911 406912 408915 415915 420912
      424909 429905 433902 435900 437902 443918
 0.01 443918 447928 450933 459933 467933 476933 482937 487942
      494943 502942 505934 509927 512921
 0.25 497909 498897 497887 496879 495871 487841 483825 477815
      473810 469806 466801 461797 457793 451793 441797 435801
      434808 436814 439818 443824 444828 444833 444842 443848
      443854 445857 448864 452874 462881 470888 479897 485904
      492913 495911 497909
 0.25 423770 422764 421761 415756 412752 412747 411738 410726
      409716 409700 410681 410672 409665 406662 403661 396662
      390666 388670 381686 376698 371711 368725 370730 372732
      375735 376741 377752 376759 373776 369788 366794 365798
      364804 358816 355823 353829 350842 353861 357878 358885
      357893 356910 356921 358931 363936 366942 370945 375941
      377940 379943 380949 382958 385966 387967 389965 390963
      392955 391915 391904 392899 396897 399894 400891 402885
      404876 405866 405858 404852 401844 400835 401825 402817
      405810 409805 413800 416795 418788 421782 423775 423770
 0.25 390059 391054 390052 386049 379042 375038 371035 368035
      364038 358045 352055 353060 355062 357065 367070 371073
      373074 376074 382067 389059 390059
 0.25 346112 346092 344086 339081 333077 327073 323060 320058
      315057 306057 298056 290056 282057 275059 261054 248048
      242046 239044 235045 233048 233054 235060 245067 251072
      256076 266083 280090 285093 288100 297111 300114 307118
      311118 315116 319112 323111 327111 335112 339112 342113
      346112
 0.25 304819 300811 295807 288805 280805 276807 277811 282816
      287819 279820 263821 262825 263828 268833 273839 276846
      283858 285868 284876 280890 278900 279910 279917 280927
      282937 285943 289948 296947 301940 303932 304928 304924
      303916 302876 302864 300853 300844 300834 299827 300823
      304819
 0.50 492889 491874 489864 487852 485844 477827 472818 466814
      459811 455812 452816 450826 449836 449848 449853 451857
      456864 457868 461870 467874 473879 478886 483890 490892
      492889
 0.50 405696 405689 404684 402679 400678 389688 384693 380700
      378708 377716 381720 384720 387721 389725 389736 388744
      388750 391751 395751 398753 400757 402758 404750 406742
      406732 406712 405696
 0.50 401788 401782 398779 392777 386773 381776 373791 369806
      367815 364822 362829 361838 360849 360858 363875 364880
      364887 364898 363907 363916 364922 366927 371930 374928
      375925 377918 379915 381920 382928 384932 386929 387920
      387909 388903 389900 393893 398890 400880 401870 401864
      399859 397851 396840 396831 398812 401800 401788
 0.50 370057 371053 370048 369047 365046 362047 360048 358050
      357053 358056 361058 363058 366061 369059 370057
 0.50 341107 340097 338091 335086 333086 331090 320082 311075
      304070 297067 286064 278063 272062 266060 259059 251056
      245052 240051 237052 236055 242060 248062 253066 254071
      261076 267078 279082 287085 291090 296101 300108 305111
      311111 316108 322104 326099 330095 333097 335102 337104
      341107
 0.50 300933 301926 300920 298910 297899 296891 293889 290890
      287893 285902 283912 284925 285935 287940 289943 293943
      296941 299936 300933
 0.50 296838 296834 295830 291826 285825 280824 272825 271829
      273832 275836 279841 283845 287845 292843 296838
 1.00 486871 483859 481852 479847 474838 469827 465822 462822
      457831 456835 457839 458844 462856 465861 469864 476870
      479875 483877 486871
 1.00 393810 393804 392801 390797 387793 384794 380798 375809
      372815 372823 374837 376844 379849 379855 380863 382869
      384872 386870 390856 390848 390840 391824 392816 393810
 1.00 311098 312096 311094 311093 310092 309091 308090 306089
      304087 304089 304091 304093 305095 305096 306098 307098
      309099 310099 311098
 1.00 296935 296931 295927 295924 295920 294916 294912 292912
      291914 290918 290920 290924 290927 291931 292933 294936
      296935
 1.00 285831 285829 284829 283829 284831 285831
 1.50 475855 474853 474850 473849 473848 471845 470843 469842
      468841 467843 466846 467848 467851 468853 468854 470855
      471855 472855 473856 475855
 1.50 389810 389808 387805 383806 382807 380809 377812 377814
      377816 379820 381821 383823 386822 387820 388817 389813
      389810

$$





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