Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 242339
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

THERE ARE A COUPLE BOUNDARIES NOTED ON RADAR NEAR TOP AND TO THE
SOUTH AROUND EMP. THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST THAT A WEAK VORT MAX IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA AND
SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST WITH NO OBVIOUS FORCING
UPSTREAM, SAVE FOR ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY FROM THE
CONVECTION OFF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING MORE ON
THE 850MB FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THAT BY
MID EVENING. BASED ON PROFILER DATA, THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS. SO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES ELEVATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 03Z. EVENTUALLY THIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH. SO I REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIP BEFORE DAWN. WITH THIS BEING LARGELY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
FEATURES, WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          841 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 616 PM):        200FT  024/11 MPH
                                      400FT  024/15 MPH
                                      600FT  026/17 MPH
                                      800FT  029/19 MPH
                                     1000FT  041/17 MPH
                                     1500FT  042/10 MPH
                                     2000FT  052/08 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 015/12 MPH
                                       77FT  016/14 MPH
                                      242FT  016/15 MPH
                                      528FT  016/15 MPH
                                      956FT  016/16 MPH
                                     1512FT  017/16 MPH
                                     2184FT  017/16 MPH
                                     2929FT  020/15 MPH
                                     3759FT  027/13 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 032/12 MPH
                                       74FT  031/15 MPH
                                      239FT  031/16 MPH
                                      524FT  031/17 MPH
                                      951FT  033/17 MPH
                                     1505FT  033/17 MPH
                                     2175FT  035/16 MPH
                                     2922FT  040/14 MPH
                                     3749FT  047/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 031/11 MPH
                                       77FT  031/15 MPH
                                      241FT  032/16 MPH
                                      528FT  032/17 MPH
                                      953FT  033/17 MPH
                                     1505FT  033/17 MPH
                                     2175FT  035/16 MPH
                                     2922FT  040/14 MPH
                                     3749FT  047/11 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        617 AM
&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$


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