Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 011229
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0529 MST Sunday, February 1, 2015

This forecast is for Sunday, February 1, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 46.2 F/7.9 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 255 ft/min (1.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8731 ft MSL (3892 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 46.0 F/8.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6040 ft MSL (1201 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 02/02....... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:20:44 / 17:33:44 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 13 min 1 sec (613 min 1 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:27:36 MST... 33.91 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/01/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 4935 ft MSL (96 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 7258 ft MSL (2419 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11056 ft MSL (6217 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10268 ft MSL (5429 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +10.5
K index......................... -11.9

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -60.1 -76.2   305   39   20   4.5   2.5  102.5 216.5    53.7      M    M
 45000  -50.3 -58.5   285   49   25   1.2   0.7   94.2 201.6    52.5      M    M
 40000  -58.2 -72.8   275   49   25   1.9   1.0   58.2 136.8    32.7      M    M
 38000  -56.1 -69.0   300   46   23   4.5   2.5   51.5 124.7    29.2      M    M
 36000  -58.4 -73.1   315   55   28  -1.0  -0.5   39.3 102.8    21.7      M    M
 34000  -55.5 -67.9   325   66   34   7.3   4.0   35.1  95.2    19.3      M    M
 32000  -50.7 -59.3   330   72   37   8.3   4.6   33.5  92.3    18.6      M    M
 30000  -45.7 -50.3   335   79   41   8.7   4.8   32.5  90.6    18.4      M    M
 29000  -43.1 -45.6   335   80   41   8.7   4.8   32.1  89.8    18.4      M    M
 28000  -40.6 -41.1   335   78   40   7.0   3.8   31.5  88.7    18.1      M    M
 27000  -38.4 -37.1   335   75   39   7.2   4.0   30.5  86.8    17.5      M    M
 26000  -36.0 -32.8   335   73   37  10.0   5.5   29.9  85.8    17.3      M    M
 25000  -33.0 -27.4   335   70   36  10.0   5.5   29.9  85.9    17.5      M    M
 24000  -30.3 -22.5   330   70   36   8.6   4.7   29.6  85.3    17.5      M    M
 23000  -28.5 -19.3   330   70   36   4.8   2.6   28.2  82.8    16.6      M    M
 22000  -26.7 -16.1   335   69   36   7.2   4.0   26.9  80.3    15.6      M    M
 21000  -24.5 -12.1   335   69   36   7.3   4.0   26.0  78.7    15.1      M    M
 20000  -21.7  -7.1   340   69   35   7.5   4.1   25.0  76.9    14.5      M    M
 19500  -20.7  -5.3   340   68   35   5.4   2.9   24.4  75.9    14.1      M    M
 19000  -19.9  -3.8   340   67   34   2.1   1.1   23.7  74.7    13.5      M    M
 18500  -20.1  -4.2   340   66   34   1.6   0.9   21.8  71.2    11.9      M    M
 18000  -19.7  -3.5   335   65   33   3.0   1.6   20.6  69.1    11.0      M    M
 17500  -19.4  -2.9   335   63   33   1.0   0.5   19.3  66.7     9.8      M    M
 17000  -18.6  -1.5   335   62   32   7.9   4.3   18.4  65.2     9.2      M    M
 16500  -17.5   0.5   335   60   31   7.3   4.0   18.0  64.4     8.9      M    M
 16000  -16.4   2.5   335   59   30   7.2   3.9   17.6  63.7     8.6      M    M
 15500  -15.3   4.5   335   57   30   4.9   2.7   17.2  63.0     8.3      M    M
 15000  -15.3   4.5   335   56   29  -0.1  -0.1   15.6  60.0     6.9      M    M
 14500  -14.8   5.4   335   54   28   4.2   2.3   14.4  58.0     5.9      M    M
 14000  -14.2   6.4   335   53   27   4.1   2.2   13.5  56.3     5.1      M    M
 13500  -13.6   7.5   335   48   25   4.1   2.3   12.5  54.6     4.3      M    M
 13000  -12.9   8.8   335   44   23   5.4   2.9   11.6  52.9     3.5      M    M
 12500  -11.9  10.6   340   40   21   7.2   4.0   11.2  52.1     3.1      M    M
 12000  -10.8  12.6   340   36   19   7.3   4.0   10.8  51.4     2.7      M    M
 11500   -9.7  14.5   340   32   17   7.2   4.0   10.3  50.6     2.3      M    M
 11000   -8.6  16.5   340   28   15   6.6   3.6    9.9  49.9     2.0      M    M
 10500   -7.8  18.0   345   25   13   6.2   3.4    9.3  48.8     1.4      M    M
 10250   -7.3  18.9   345   23   12   5.9   3.2    9.0  48.3     1.1      M    M
 10000   -6.9  19.6   345   21   11   7.3   4.0    8.8  47.8     0.8      M    M
  9750   -6.3  20.7   345   17    9   8.6   4.7    8.6  47.6     0.7      M    M
  9500   -5.6  21.9   345   14    7   8.2   4.5    8.5  47.4     0.6      M    M
  9250   -5.0  23.0   345   11    6   8.5   4.7    8.4  47.2     0.4      M    M
  9000   -4.4  24.1   345    7    4   7.4   4.1    8.3  47.0     0.3      M    M
  8750   -4.0  24.8   350    7    4   7.0   3.8    8.1  46.6     0.0      M    M
  8500   -3.4  25.9   355    7    4   8.5   4.7    7.9  46.3    -0.1    237  1.2
  8250   -2.8  27.0   005    7    4   9.1   5.0    7.9  46.2    -0.2    209  1.1
  8000   -2.1  28.2   010    7    4   9.0   4.9    7.8  46.1    -0.3    182  0.9
  7750   -1.4  29.5   010    7    4   8.9   4.9    7.8  46.0    -0.3    155  0.8
  7500   -0.8  30.6   010    7    4   9.9   5.4    7.7  45.9    -0.4    127  0.6
  7250   -0.1  31.8   010    7    4   9.8   5.4    7.7  45.9    -0.5    101  0.5
  7000    0.5  32.9   010    7    4   9.6   5.3    7.7  45.9    -0.6     73  0.4
  6750    1.2  34.2   005    6    3   6.7   3.7    7.7  45.8    -0.7     47  0.2
  6500    1.2  34.2   355    6    3  -2.6  -1.4    7.1  44.8    -1.4     39  0.2
  6250    0.8  33.4   345    5    3  -0.4  -0.2    6.1  42.9    -2.5     43  0.2
  6000    1.1  34.0   335    5    3   5.2   2.8    5.6  42.1    -2.9     26  0.1
  5750    1.4  34.5   335    4    2   3.6   2.0    5.2  41.3    -3.4     10  0.1
  5500    1.7  35.1   345    3    2   4.5   2.4    4.7  40.5    -3.8      M    M
  5250    2.0  35.6   005    2    1   2.5   1.4    4.3  39.8    -4.3      M    M
  5000    1.7  35.1   035    2    1 -15.0  -8.2    3.3  37.9    -5.3      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/01/2015 at 0800 MST          |       02/01/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -6.5  LI... +11.2               | K index... -3.1  LI... +11.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.1 -74.4  295  40 21   2.8   1.5 | -58.6 -73.5  295  38 20   3.4   1.9
 45000 -54.7 -66.5  300  44 23   3.4   1.9 | -53.5 -64.3  300  37 19   4.4   2.4
 40000 -58.8 -73.8  310  51 26  -3.0  -1.7 | -59.1 -74.4  325  53 27  -4.2  -2.3
 38000 -59.5 -75.1  320  55 28   2.9   1.6 | -60.1 -76.2  330  60 31   3.5   1.9
 36000 -57.7 -71.9  335  66 34   3.0   1.6 | -57.9 -72.2  340  69 36   3.6   2.0
 34000 -55.9 -68.6  345  81 42   5.9   3.2 | -55.1 -67.2  350  80 41   9.0   4.9
 32000 -50.8 -59.4  345  75 39   8.5   4.7 | -50.1 -58.2  350  77 40   8.4   4.6
 30000 -45.1 -49.2  345  70 36   7.3   4.0 | -45.2 -49.4  345  75 39   7.5   4.1
 29000 -42.9 -45.2  345  72 37   7.4   4.1 | -42.9 -45.2  345  76 39   7.6   4.2
 28000 -40.7 -41.3  345  74 38   7.4   4.1 | -40.6 -41.1  345  76 39   7.6   4.2
 27000 -38.5 -37.3  345  75 39   7.4   4.1 | -38.3 -36.9  345  76 39   7.6   4.1
 26000 -36.2 -33.2  345  76 39   7.4   4.1 | -36.2 -33.2  345  76 39   7.1   3.9
 25000 -34.0 -29.2  345  76 39   7.4   4.1 | -34.1 -29.4  345  75 39   7.1   3.9
 24000 -31.8 -25.2  345  75 39   7.4   4.1 | -31.9 -25.4  345  74 38   7.1   3.9
 23000 -29.6 -21.3  345  75 39   7.4   4.1 | -29.8 -21.6  345  73 37   7.2   4.0
 22000 -27.3 -17.1  345  75 39   7.4   4.1 | -27.6 -17.7  345  71 36   7.3   4.0
 21000 -25.1 -13.2  345  75 39   7.4   4.0 | -25.4 -13.7  345  69 35   7.4   4.1
 20000 -23.0  -9.4  345  74 38   7.1   3.9 | -23.1  -9.6  345  68 35   7.9   4.3
 19500 -21.9  -7.4  340  73 38   7.2   3.9 | -21.4  -6.5  345  67 35   7.9   4.3
 19000 -20.9  -5.6  340  73 38   7.1   3.9 | -20.2  -4.4  345  67 34   7.9   4.3
 18500 -19.8  -3.6  340  73 37   7.0   3.8 | -19.1  -2.4  345  67 34   7.1   3.9
 18000 -19.0  -2.2  340  71 37   4.5   2.5 | -18.1  -0.6  340  66 34   6.7   3.7
 17500 -18.3  -0.9  340  69 36   4.7   2.6 | -17.1   1.2  340  66 34   6.6   3.6
 17000 -17.6   0.3  335  68 35   4.0   2.2 | -16.2   2.8  340  65 33   5.6   3.1
 16500 -17.1   1.2  335  66 34   3.9   2.1 | -15.4   4.3  340  63 33   5.9   3.2
 16000 -16.5   2.3  335  64 33   3.7   2.0 | -14.7   5.5  340  62 32   2.9   1.6
 15500 -16.0   3.2  335  61 31   3.4   1.9 | -14.3   6.3  340  59 31   2.8   1.5
 15000 -15.4   4.3  335  58 30   3.4   1.9 | -13.9   7.0  340  57 30   2.6   1.4
 14500 -14.5   5.9  340  54 28   4.0   2.2 | -13.5   7.7  340  54 28   2.6   1.4
 14000 -13.9   7.0  340  51 26   4.5   2.5 | -13.1   8.4  345  52 27   3.1   1.7
 13500 -13.2   8.2  340  47 24   4.8   2.6 | -12.5   9.5  345  48 25   3.9   2.1
 13000 -12.4   9.7  345  44 23   5.0   2.7 | -11.9  10.6  345  45 23   4.2   2.3
 12500 -11.7  10.9  345  40 20   5.2   2.9 | -11.2  11.8  345  41 21   4.8   2.6
 12000 -10.9  12.4  345  36 18   5.0   2.7 | -10.4  13.3  345  37 19   4.8   2.6
 11500 -10.2  13.6  345  33 17   4.8   2.6 |  -9.7  14.5  345  34 17   4.9   2.7
 11000  -9.5  14.9  345  31 16   4.6   2.5 |  -9.0  15.8  345  30 16   4.9   2.7
 10500  -8.8  16.2  345  28 14   4.7   2.6 |  -8.3  17.1  345  26 13   4.9   2.7
 10250  -8.5  16.7  345  26 13   3.4   1.9 |  -7.9  17.8  340  24 12   5.1   2.8
 10000  -8.3  17.1  350  25 13   3.5   1.9 |  -7.6  18.3  340  22 11   2.4   1.3
  9750  -8.0  17.6  350  23 12   5.7   3.1 |  -7.5  18.5  340  21 11   3.7   2.0
  9500  -7.6  18.3  355  21 11   6.3   3.4 |  -7.0  19.4  345  18  9   6.8   3.8
  9250  -7.1  19.2  355  19 10   5.5   3.0 |  -6.6  20.1  345  16  8   5.7   3.1
  9000  -6.8  19.8  360  17  9   5.1   2.8 |  -6.2  20.8  345  14  7   4.6   2.5
  8750  -6.4  20.5  360  16  8   6.4   3.5 |  -5.9  21.4  350  12  6   4.6   2.5
  8500  -5.9  21.4  005  14  7   7.0   3.8 |  -5.6  21.9  350  10  5   5.4   2.9
  8250  -5.4  22.3  010  12  6   6.9   3.8 |  -5.2  22.6  360   7  4   4.8   2.6
  8000  -4.9  23.2  020  10  5   7.0   3.8 |  -4.9  23.2  010   5  2   4.0   2.2
  7750  -4.4  24.1  025   8  4   7.1   3.9 |  -4.6  23.7  040   3  1   5.0   2.8
  7500  -3.8  25.2  040   7  3   7.4   4.0 |  -4.2  24.4  090   2  1   6.5   3.6
  7250  -3.3  26.1  055   6  3   7.5   4.1 |  -3.6  25.5  115   3  1   7.5   4.1
  7000  -2.7  27.1  070   6  3   7.6   4.1 |  -3.1  26.4  125   3  1   7.6   4.2
  6750  -2.2  28.0  085   7  4   7.1   3.9 |  -2.5  27.5  130   3  2   9.0   4.9
  6500  -1.7  28.9  090   7  4   6.6   3.6 |  -1.7  28.9  135   3  2  10.6   5.8
  6250  -1.2  29.8  095   7  4   5.4   3.0 |  -1.0  30.2  135   3  2  10.5   5.8
  6000  -0.8  30.6  100   7  3   8.7   4.8 |  -0.2  31.6  135   3  2  10.0   5.5
  5750  -0.1  31.8  110   6  3   3.2   1.7 |   0.6  33.1  140   3  1  12.1   6.6
  5500  -0.4  31.3  110   5  3  -5.8  -3.2 |   1.7  35.1  140   3  1  18.2  10.0
  5250  -0.7  30.7  110   5  2   1.4   0.8 |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           02/01/2015 at 1400 MST          |       02/01/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -4.0  LI... +11.1               | K index... +0.5  LI... +10.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.4 -74.9  295  37 19   2.9   1.6 | -59.8 -75.6  305  35 18   2.1   1.1
 45000 -54.9 -66.8  305  33 17   3.8   2.1 | -56.5 -69.7  330  29 15   2.4   1.3
 40000 -60.5 -76.9  330  53 27  -4.1  -2.2 | -61.3 -78.3  330  57 29  -3.4  -1.9
 38000 -61.2 -78.2  335  60 31   4.3   2.4 | -61.4 -78.5  335  64 33   4.8   2.6
 36000 -58.6 -73.5  340  64 33   4.3   2.4 | -58.6 -73.5  335  66 34   4.7   2.6
 34000 -55.9 -68.6  345  68 35   7.0   3.8 | -55.6 -68.1  340  67 34   7.8   4.3
 32000 -50.5 -58.9  345  67 35   8.1   4.4 | -50.7 -59.3  340  65 34   8.1   4.4
 30000 -45.6 -50.1  345  67 35   7.9   4.4 | -45.2 -49.4  340  64 33   8.1   4.4
 29000 -43.2 -45.8  345  68 35   8.0   4.4 | -42.8 -45.0  340  63 33   8.1   4.5
 28000 -40.9 -41.6  345  68 35   8.0   4.4 | -40.4 -40.7  340  63 32   8.1   4.5
 27000 -38.5 -37.3  345  69 35   8.0   4.4 | -37.9 -36.2  340  62 32   8.3   4.5
 26000 -36.1 -33.0  345  68 35   7.9   4.4 | -35.4 -31.7  335  62 32   8.5   4.6
 25000 -33.7 -28.7  345  68 35   8.0   4.4 | -32.9 -27.2  335  61 31   8.5   4.6
 24000 -31.3 -24.3  345  68 35   8.0   4.4 | -30.3 -22.5  335  61 31   8.3   4.5
 23000 -29.0 -20.2  340  66 34   7.7   4.2 | -28.1 -18.6  335  59 31   7.4   4.1
 22000 -26.7 -16.1  340  63 33   7.7   4.2 | -25.9 -14.6  330  58 30   7.5   4.1
 21000 -24.4 -11.9  340  61 31   7.6   4.2 | -23.7 -10.7  330  57 29   7.2   4.0
 20000 -22.3  -8.1  340  58 30   7.4   4.0 | -21.6  -6.9  330  54 28   7.1   3.9
 19500 -21.2  -6.2  340  57 29   7.4   4.0 | -20.5  -4.9  335  53 27   7.1   3.9
 19000 -19.5  -3.1  340  55 28   7.4   4.1 | -19.5  -3.1  335  52 27   7.1   3.9
 18500 -18.4  -1.1  340  54 28   6.8   3.7 | -18.4  -1.1  335  50 26   6.6   3.6
 18000 -17.5   0.5  340  53 27   6.6   3.6 | -17.6   0.3  335  49 25   5.9   3.2
 17500 -16.5   2.3  340  53 27   6.4   3.5 | -16.7   1.9  335  47 24   5.8   3.2
 17000 -15.6   3.9  340  53 27   5.8   3.2 | -15.8   3.6  335  46 24   6.5   3.5
 16500 -14.8   5.4  345  53 28   6.0   3.3 | -14.8   5.4  335  45 23   6.4   3.5
 16000 -14.0   6.8  345  53 27   5.0   2.8 | -13.9   7.0  335  44 23   5.9   3.3
 15500 -13.2   8.2  345  52 27   5.2   2.8 | -13.1   8.4  340  44 23   5.7   3.1
 15000 -12.5   9.5  345  51 26   4.0   2.2 | -12.2  10.0  340  43 22   5.6   3.1
 14500 -12.0  10.4  345  49 25   3.7   2.0 | -11.0  12.2  340  41 21   5.5   3.0
 14000 -11.4  11.5  345  48 24   3.5   1.9 | -10.3  13.5  340  39 20   3.7   2.0
 13500 -10.9  12.4  345  45 23   3.4   1.9 |  -9.8  14.4  340  37 19   3.2   1.8
 13000 -10.4  13.3  345  42 22   3.1   1.7 |  -9.4  15.1  335  34 18   2.4   1.3
 12500  -9.9  14.2  345  39 20   2.8   1.6 |  -9.0  15.8  335  31 16   1.9   1.1
 12000  -9.4  15.1  345  36 18   3.4   1.8 |  -8.7  16.3  335  28 14   2.5   1.4
 11500  -8.8  16.2  345  32 16   4.1   2.3 |  -8.2  17.2  335  24 12   3.0   1.6
 11000  -8.1  17.4  345  28 14   4.4   2.4 |  -7.6  18.3  335  20 10   4.2   2.3
 10500  -7.5  18.5  345  23 12   4.7   2.6 |  -7.0  19.4  330  16  8   5.1   2.8
 10250  -7.1  19.2  345  20 10   4.4   2.4 |  -6.6  20.1  325  14  7   3.0   1.6
 10000  -6.9  19.6  340  18  9   3.2   1.8 |  -6.4  20.5  320  13  7   4.3   2.4
  9750  -6.6  20.1  340  16  8   4.2   2.3 |  -5.9  21.4  315  11  6   7.5   4.1
  9500  -6.3  20.7  340  13  7   5.7   3.1 |  -5.5  22.1  305  10  5   7.1   3.9
  9250  -5.9  21.4  335  10  5   5.2   2.8 |  -5.0  23.0  300   8  4   6.2   3.4
  9000  -5.6  21.9  330   8  4   4.6   2.5 |  -4.6  23.7  290   7  4   5.7   3.1
  8750  -5.2  22.6  325   6  3   5.4   3.0 |  -4.1  24.6  285   7  3   7.5   4.1
  8500  -4.8  23.4  315   4  2   6.2   3.4 |  -3.5  25.7  270   6  3   7.8   4.3
  8250  -4.3  24.3  280   2  1   6.0   3.3 |  -2.9  26.8  260   5  3   7.3   4.0
  8000  -3.9  25.0  245   1  1   5.5   3.0 |  -2.4  27.7  255   5  3   7.1   3.9
  7750  -3.5  25.7  200   2  1   7.1   3.9 |  -1.8  28.8  245   5  2   7.6   4.2
  7500  -2.9  26.8  180   2  1   8.9   4.9 |  -1.3  29.7  235   4  2   7.1   3.9
  7250  -2.2  28.0  170   2  1   8.9   4.9 |  -0.8  30.6  225   3  2   6.3   3.4
  7000  -1.6  29.1  165   2  1   9.2   5.1 |  -0.3  31.5  205   3  2   6.1   3.3
  6750  -0.9  30.4  160   2  1   9.2   5.0 |   0.1  32.2  185   3  1   6.0   3.3
  6500  -0.2  31.6  160   2  1   9.9   5.4 |   0.6  33.1  170   3  1   8.1   4.5
  6250   0.6  33.1  160   2  1  10.7   5.9 |   1.2  34.2  170   3  1   9.4   5.1
  6000   1.3  34.3  160   2  1   9.8   5.4 |   1.9  35.4  165   3  1   9.2   5.0
  5750   2.1  35.8  160   2  1  12.6   6.9 |   2.5  36.5  160   2  1   6.9   3.8
  5500   3.3  37.9  160   2  1  19.8  10.9 |   2.9  37.2  160   2  1   4.5   2.5
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |   3.3  37.9  160   2  1   6.4   3.5
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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