Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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563
UXUS97 KPUB 091229
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0529 MST Tuesday, February 9, 2016

This forecast is for Tuesday, February 9, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 47.6 F/8.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 461 ft/min (2.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 12368 ft MSL (5610 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 51.0 F/11.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9231 ft MSL (2474 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 02/10.... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:57:34 / 17:27:55 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 30 min 21 sec (630 min 21 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:13:04 MST... 36.42 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/09/2016 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 7510 ft MSL (752 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 9795 ft MSL (3037 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18683 ft MSL (11925 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15252 ft MSL (8495 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +7.5
K index......................... -7.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.3 -74.7   340   41   21   1.8   1.0      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -57.0 -70.6   345   60   31  -5.1  -2.8      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -63.6 -82.5   345   60   31  -4.4  -2.4      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -61.4 -78.5   345   63   32   8.0   4.4      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -56.6 -69.9   345   67   35   8.0   4.4      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -51.7 -61.1   345   70   36   8.3   4.5      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -46.7 -52.1   350   69   36   8.3   4.6      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -41.9 -43.4   350   67   35   7.8   4.3   28.8  83.8    14.0      M    M
 29000  -38.9 -38.0   350   65   34   7.8   4.3   27.8  82.0    13.4      M    M
 28000  -36.6 -33.9   350   63   33   7.8   4.3   27.1  80.8    13.1      M    M
 27000  -34.3 -29.7   350   62   32   7.7   4.2   26.4  79.6    12.7      M    M
 26000  -32.0 -25.6   350   59   31   7.7   4.2   25.6  78.0    12.1      M    M
 25000  -29.6 -21.3   350   57   29   7.7   4.2   24.9  76.7    11.7      M    M
 24000  -27.3 -17.1   355   55   28   7.8   4.3   24.2  75.5    11.2      M    M
 23000  -25.0 -13.0   355   54   28   7.8   4.3   23.4  74.1    10.7      M    M
 22000  -22.7  -8.9   355   54   28   7.8   4.3   22.7  72.9    10.3      M    M
 21000  -20.6  -5.1   355   53   27   6.2   3.4   21.9  71.4     9.6      M    M
 20000  -18.7  -1.7   355   53   27   6.3   3.4   20.6  69.1     8.6      M    M
 19500  -17.8  -0.0   355   52   27   6.3   3.4   20.0  68.0     8.1      M    M
 19000  -16.9   1.6   355   52   27   6.2   3.4   19.5  67.1     7.7      M    M
 18500  -15.9   3.4   355   52   27   7.2   4.0   19.0  66.2     7.3      M    M
 18000  -14.8   5.4   355   50   26   7.1   3.9   18.5  65.4     6.9      M    M
 17500  -13.7   7.3   355   49   25   6.7   3.7   18.1  64.6     6.6      M    M
 17000  -12.7   9.1   350   48   25   6.4   3.5   17.5  63.5     6.1      M    M
 16500  -11.8  10.8   350   48   24   6.3   3.5   17.0  62.5     5.7      M    M
 16000  -10.9  12.4   350   47   24   5.6   3.1   16.3  61.4     5.2      M    M
 15500  -10.0  14.0   350   46   23   5.6   3.1   15.6  60.2     4.6      M    M
 15000   -9.1  15.6   345   44   23   6.2   3.4   15.0  59.0     4.0      M    M
 14500   -7.7  18.1   345   41   21   5.9   3.2   14.1  57.4     3.3      M    M
 14000   -7.0  19.4   345   41   21   4.3   2.3   13.3  56.0     2.5      M    M
 13500   -6.4  20.5   345   41   21   4.4   2.4   12.5  54.5     1.7      M    M
 13000   -5.7  21.7   345   40   21   4.6   2.5   11.6  52.9     0.9      M    M
 12500   -5.1  22.8   350   39   20   4.7   2.6   10.8  51.5     0.1      M    M
 12000   -4.3  24.3   350   37   19   6.6   3.6   10.2  50.4    -0.6    425  2.2
 11750   -3.8  25.2   350   36   19   6.0   3.3    9.9  49.8    -0.8    404  2.1
 11500   -3.4  25.9   350   36   18   6.1   3.3    9.6  49.3    -1.1    383  1.9
 11250   -2.9  26.8   350   35   18   7.1   3.9    9.4  48.9    -1.4    362  1.8
 11000   -2.4  27.7   350   33   17   7.1   3.9    9.2  48.6    -1.6    338  1.7
 10750   -1.9  28.6   350   32   16   6.1   3.3    8.9  48.1    -1.9    317  1.6
 10500   -1.4  29.5   350   30   16   6.4   3.5    8.7  47.6    -2.1    296  1.5
 10250   -0.9  30.4   350   29   15   7.3   4.0    8.4  47.2    -2.4    274  1.4
 10000   -0.4  31.3   350   28   15   7.9   4.4    8.3  46.9    -2.6    249  1.3
  9750    0.2  32.4   350   27   14   8.0   4.4    8.1  46.6    -2.7    225  1.1
  9500    0.8  33.4   350   27   14   8.0   4.4    8.0  46.4    -2.8    199  1.0
  9250    1.4  34.5   350   26   14   7.8   4.3    7.8  46.1    -3.0    175  0.9
  9000    1.9  35.4   350   26   13   7.2   4.0    7.7  45.8    -3.2    150  0.8
  8750    2.5  36.5   350   26   13   9.1   5.0    7.5  45.6    -3.4    126  0.6
  8500    3.1  37.6   345   25   13   5.7   3.1    7.5  45.4    -3.5     99  0.5
  8250    3.2  37.8   345   23   12  -2.3  -1.3    6.8  44.2    -4.1     90  0.5
  8000    3.2  37.8   340   21   11   7.4   4.1    6.1  42.9    -4.9     82  0.4
  7750    3.3  37.9   335   19   10 -26.0 -14.3    5.4  41.6    -5.6     74  0.4
  7500   -0.2  31.6   330   16    8 -38.6 -21.2    1.3  34.4    -9.6    170  0.9
  7250   -1.5  29.3   320   14    7  -8.2  -4.5   -0.3  31.4   -11.3    202  1.0
  7000   -2.8  27.0   310   11    6 -34.0 -18.6   -2.0  28.4   -13.0    234  1.2
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/09/2016 at 0800 MST          |       02/09/2016 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +3.4  LI... +279.3              | K index... -5.1  LI... +279.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.5 -75.1  345  46 24   1.3   0.7 | -59.0 -74.2  350  40 21   2.4   1.3
 45000 -57.6 -71.7  345  67 35  -2.0  -1.1 | -55.8 -68.4  360  64 33  -4.3  -2.3
 40000 -63.5 -82.3  335  60 31  -3.6  -2.0 | -61.1 -78.0  335  61 31  -3.6  -2.0
 38000 -61.1 -78.0  340  61 31   7.6   4.2 | -59.7 -75.5  335  62 32   5.8   3.2
 36000 -56.6 -69.9  345  64 33   7.6   4.2 | -55.8 -68.4  345  64 33   5.8   3.2
 34000 -51.9 -61.4  350  66 34   8.3   4.5 | -51.8 -61.2  350  65 33   8.1   4.5
 32000 -46.9 -52.4  350  64 33   8.3   4.5 | -46.9 -52.4  345  62 32   8.1   4.5
 30000 -42.0 -43.6  350  63 33   7.8   4.3 | -42.1 -43.8  345  60 31   7.7   4.2
 29000 -39.7 -39.5  350  63 32   7.8   4.3 | -39.8 -39.6  345  59 30   7.7   4.2
 28000 -37.3 -35.1  350  62 32   7.8   4.3 | -37.5 -35.5  345  58 30   7.7   4.2
 27000 -34.5 -30.1  350  61 31   7.4   4.1 | -35.2 -31.4  345  56 29   7.7   4.2
 26000 -32.2 -26.0  350  59 30   7.4   4.1 | -32.9 -27.2  345  54 28   7.7   4.2
 25000 -30.0 -22.0  350  57 29   7.4   4.1 | -30.6 -23.1  345  52 27   7.7   4.2
 24000 -27.7 -17.9  350  54 28   8.4   4.6 | -28.3 -18.9  345  51 26   8.3   4.6
 23000 -25.2 -13.4  350  51 26   8.3   4.6 | -25.1 -13.2  345  49 25   8.4   4.6
 22000 -22.7  -8.9  350  48 25   8.3   4.6 | -22.6  -8.7  345  47 24   8.4   4.6
 21000 -20.4  -4.7  350  47 24   7.1   3.9 | -20.3  -4.5  345  48 25   7.1   3.9
 20000 -18.3  -0.9  355  50 26   7.1   3.9 | -18.2  -0.8  350  49 25   7.0   3.9
 19500 -17.2   1.0  355  51 26   7.1   3.9 | -17.2   1.0  350  50 26   7.0   3.8
 19000 -16.2   2.8  355  52 27   7.0   3.8 | -16.1   3.0  350  51 26   6.7   3.7
 18500 -15.2   4.6  355  52 27   5.8   3.2 | -15.2   4.6  350  51 26   5.8   3.2
 18000 -14.4   6.1  355  51 26   6.0   3.3 | -14.3   6.3  350  50 26   5.8   3.2
 17500 -13.5   7.7  350  50 26   5.4   3.0 | -13.5   7.7  350  49 25   5.8   3.2
 17000 -12.7   9.1  350  49 25   5.4   2.9 | -12.6   9.3  350  48 25   5.9   3.2
 16500 -12.0  10.4  350  49 25   5.9   3.3 | -11.8  10.8  350  48 25   6.3   3.5
 16000 -10.9  12.4  345  47 24   7.0   3.9 | -10.8  12.6  345  46 24   6.8   3.7
 15500  -9.8  14.4  345  45 23   7.1   3.9 |  -9.8  14.4  340  44 23   6.7   3.7
 15000  -8.8  16.2  340  43 22   5.8   3.2 |  -8.9  16.0  340  43 22   5.7   3.1
 14500  -7.9  17.8  340  42 21   6.2   3.4 |  -8.0  17.6  340  43 22   5.8   3.2
 14000  -7.2  19.0  340  42 21   3.2   1.7 |  -7.2  19.0  340  42 22   5.1   2.8
 13500  -6.7  19.9  340  44 22   3.2   1.8 |  -6.4  20.5  340  41 21   5.2   2.9
 13000  -6.2  20.8  345  45 23   4.8   2.6 |  -5.7  21.7  340  40 21   4.8   2.6
 12500  -5.5  22.1  345  45 23   5.0   2.7 |  -5.0  23.0  345  40 21   4.9   2.7
 12000  -4.8  23.4  350  45 23   5.9   3.3 |  -4.3  24.3  345  39 20   4.7   2.6
 11750  -4.4  24.1  350  44 23   6.3   3.5 |  -4.0  24.8  345  39 20   4.9   2.7
 11500  -3.9  25.0  350  43 22   6.2   3.4 |  -3.7  25.3  345  39 20   4.7   2.6
 11250  -3.5  25.7  350  42 22   6.6   3.6 |  -3.3  26.1  350  39 20   5.3   2.9
 11000  -3.0  26.6  350  41 21   7.2   3.9 |  -2.9  26.8  350  38 20   6.3   3.4
 10750  -2.5  27.5  350  39 20   6.8   3.8 |  -2.5  27.5  350  38 19   6.6   3.6
 10500  -2.0  28.4  355  37 19   6.3   3.5 |  -2.0  28.4  350  37 19   6.6   3.6
 10250  -1.0  30.2  355  34 17   7.5   4.1 |  -1.5  29.3  355  36 19   7.1   3.9
 10000  -0.4  31.3  355  32 16   7.8   4.3 |  -0.9  30.4  355  35 18   8.1   4.4
  9750   0.2  32.4  355  31 16   7.9   4.4 |  -0.4  31.3  355  34 17   7.5   4.1
  9500   0.8  33.4  355  29 15   8.1   4.4 |   0.7  33.3  355  30 15   7.4   4.1
  9250   1.4  34.5  355  28 14   8.1   4.4 |   1.3  34.3  355  28 14   8.2   4.5
  9000   2.0  35.6  350  27 14   8.5   4.6 |   1.9  35.4  355  26 13   8.0   4.4
  8750   2.7  36.9  350  26 13   8.7   4.8 |   2.5  36.5  355  24 12   7.3   4.0
  8500   3.2  37.8  350  25 13   4.5   2.5 |   3.0  37.4  350  22 11   6.1   3.3
  8250   3.4  38.1  345  24 12   1.3   0.7 |   3.4  38.1  350  21 11   5.5   3.0
  8000   3.6  38.5  340  23 12   3.1   1.7 |   3.8  38.8  345  19 10   6.4   3.5
  7750   3.2  37.8  335  21 11 -22.9 -12.6 |   4.0  39.2  335  18  9  -3.9  -2.1
  7500  -0.3  31.5  325  15  8 -62.6 -34.4 |   2.8  37.0  330  13  7 -22.1 -12.1
  7250  -2.7  27.1  305   9  5  41.8  22.9 |   1.7  35.1  310   8  4  14.2   7.8
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           02/09/2016 at 1400 MST          |       02/09/2016 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -6.0  LI... +278.0              | K index... -3.6  LI... +277.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.4 -73.1  335  39 20   2.3   1.3 | -60.3 -76.5  340  45 23   2.5   1.3
 45000 -55.5 -67.9  350  60 31  -4.7  -2.6 | -57.0 -70.6  350  65 34  -2.9  -1.6
 40000 -61.5 -78.7  330  62 32  -4.1  -2.3 | -61.0 -77.8  330  62 32  -2.6  -1.4
 38000 -60.0 -76.0  330  59 30   6.5   3.6 | -59.1 -74.4  325  59 30   5.9   3.2
 36000 -55.7 -68.3  340  51 26   6.5   3.5 | -55.6 -68.1  330  53 27   5.9   3.2
 34000 -51.5 -60.7  345  48 25   7.8   4.3 | -51.6 -60.9  330  49 25   7.9   4.3
 32000 -46.8 -52.2  345  50 26   7.8   4.3 | -46.9 -52.4  340  51 26   7.9   4.3
 30000 -42.2 -44.0  345  52 27   7.7   4.2 | -42.2 -44.0  340  52 27   7.5   4.1
 29000 -39.9 -39.8  345  52 27   7.7   4.2 | -40.0 -40.0  340  51 26   7.5   4.1
 28000 -37.6 -35.7  340  53 27   7.7   4.2 | -37.2 -35.0  345  49 25   7.5   4.1
 27000 -35.3 -31.5  340  53 27   7.9   4.3 | -34.9 -30.8  345  48 25   7.8   4.3
 26000 -32.9 -27.2  340  52 27   7.8   4.3 | -32.5 -26.5  345  48 25   7.8   4.3
 25000 -30.6 -23.1  340  52 27   7.8   4.3 | -30.2 -22.4  345  47 24   7.8   4.3
 24000 -28.3 -18.9  340  51 26   7.6   4.2 | -27.9 -18.2  345  47 24   6.9   3.8
 23000 -25.4 -13.7  345  51 26   7.6   4.2 | -25.8 -14.4  345  48 25   7.0   3.8
 22000 -23.2  -9.8  345  51 26   7.6   4.2 | -23.8 -10.8  345  49 25   7.0   3.8
 21000 -21.1  -6.0  350  51 26   6.6   3.6 | -21.7  -7.1  345  48 25   6.7   3.7
 20000 -19.1  -2.4  355  52 27   6.6   3.6 | -19.7  -3.5  345  46 24   6.7   3.7
 19500 -18.2  -0.8  355  53 27   6.6   3.6 | -18.7  -1.7  345  46 23   6.7   3.7
 19000 -17.2   1.0  355  53 27   7.2   3.9 | -17.7   0.1  345  45 23   7.2   3.9
 18500 -16.0   3.2  355  49 25   8.5   4.6 | -16.4   2.5  345  43 22   9.6   5.2
 18000 -14.7   5.5  355  45 23   8.6   4.7 | -15.0   5.0  340  40 21   9.5   5.2
 17500 -13.5   7.7  350  42 22   7.3   4.0 | -13.6   7.5  340  38 20   8.4   4.6
 17000 -12.4   9.7  350  43 22   7.2   4.0 | -12.4   9.7  340  36 18   8.2   4.5
 16500 -11.3  11.7  350  43 22   6.8   3.7 | -11.1  12.0  335  34 17   6.9   3.8
 16000 -10.4  13.3  350  44 22   6.3   3.5 | -10.3  13.5  340  37 19   5.0   2.8
 15500  -9.4  15.1  350  44 23   6.2   3.4 |  -9.6  14.7  345  40 21   5.1   2.8
 15000  -8.5  16.7  350  44 23   6.0   3.3 |  -8.8  16.2  350  42 22   5.9   3.2
 14500  -7.6  18.3  350  44 23   6.2   3.4 |  -7.9  17.8  350  43 22   5.9   3.3
 14000  -6.8  19.8  350  43 22   4.8   2.6 |  -7.1  19.2  355  42 22   5.1   2.8
 13500  -6.1  21.0  345  42 22   4.9   2.7 |  -6.3  20.7  355  41 21   5.3   2.9
 13000  -5.4  22.3  345  41 21   4.7   2.6 |  -5.6  21.9  355  40 21   4.9   2.7
 12500  -4.7  23.5  340  39 20   4.7   2.6 |  -4.9  23.2  355  38 20   5.0   2.8
 12000  -4.0  24.8  340  37 19   5.1   2.8 |  -4.2  24.4  350  35 18   4.7   2.6
 11750  -3.7  25.3  340  36 19   5.4   3.0 |  -3.9  25.0  350  34 17   5.3   2.9
 11500  -3.3  26.1  340  35 18   5.2   2.9 |  -3.5  25.7  350  33 17   4.9   2.7
 11250  -2.9  26.8  340  34 18   5.7   3.1 |  -3.1  26.4  350  31 16   5.9   3.2
 11000  -2.5  27.5  340  33 17   6.6   3.6 |  -2.6  27.3  350  30 15   7.3   4.0
 10750  -2.0  28.4  345  31 16   7.2   3.9 |  -2.1  28.2  345  29 15   7.0   3.8
 10500  -1.4  29.5  345  30 15   7.2   4.0 |  -1.6  29.1  345  28 14   6.2   3.4
 10250  -0.9  30.4  345  29 15   7.7   4.2 |  -0.5  31.1  345  25 13   8.7   4.8
 10000  -0.3  31.5  345  27 14   8.5   4.7 |   0.2  32.4  345  23 12   8.5   4.7
  9750   0.3  32.5  345  26 13   8.1   4.4 |   0.8  33.4  345  21 11   8.0   4.4
  9500   1.4  34.5  345  23 12   8.0   4.4 |   1.4  34.5  340  19 10   8.4   4.6
  9250   2.1  35.8  345  22 11   8.4   4.6 |   2.0  35.6  340  18  9   8.7   4.8
  9000   2.7  36.9  345  21 11   8.4   4.6 |   2.7  36.9  335  16  8   8.7   4.8
  8750   3.3  37.9  345  19 10   8.2   4.5 |   3.3  37.9  335  15  8   8.3   4.6
  8500   3.8  38.8  345  18  9   7.5   4.1 |   3.9  39.0  330  14  7   7.4   4.1
  8250   4.3  39.7  340  16  8   6.7   3.7 |   4.3  39.7  330  13  7   6.5   3.5
  8000   4.8  40.6  340  14  7   8.8   4.8 |   4.8  40.6  325  12  6   8.7   4.8
  7750   5.2  41.4  335  12  6  -2.0  -1.1 |   5.3  41.5  320  10  5  -1.5  -0.8
  7500   4.0  39.2  325   9  4 -25.7 -14.1 |   4.1  39.4  310   8  4 -25.0 -13.7
  7250   2.6  36.7  305   5  3  14.0   7.7 |   2.9  37.2  290   6  3  13.6   7.5
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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