Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 030047
SWODY1
SPC AC 030046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/DELMARVA PENINSULA VICINITY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  IN
GENERAL...THOUGH...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DIMINISHING.

...SOUTHEAST AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF EVOLVING UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE APPALACHIANS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
MAINTENANCE OF CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
EVENING.  CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND SCATTERED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN.  STORMS ARE ALSO FOCUSED ALONG CONVERGING SEA
BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS ALONG A SEA
BREEZE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  WIDELY
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...ROOTED WITHIN A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT NOW SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO
AND THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.

EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PEAK CONVECTIVE INTENSITIES ACROSS
MOST AREAS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING.  ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY/DELMARVA REGION...WHERE ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INTO THE 02-04Z
TIME FRAME.  DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS DO SUGGEST
MODEST STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO 30+ KT THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

..KERR.. 05/03/2016

$$


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