Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 060102
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB/MN/IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA/NC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN IOWA.

...SD/NEB TO MN/IA...
LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TONIGHT VIA AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTHERN PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH INCLUDING EASTWARD-MOVING EMBEDDED IMPULSES OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN MT EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALSO STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST. THE AIR MASS NEAR/AHEAD
OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SD AND NORTHERN NEB INTO
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHWEST IA. WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND A LARGE HAIL RISK CAN BE
EXPECTED IN A NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST MN
INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN/EASTERN SD TO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEB. AS APPEARS TO ALREADY BE OCCURRING PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AS OF 01Z...UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING/GRADUALLY ACCELERATING MCS SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SEEMS
LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN SD AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTHERN NEB AND
SUBSEQUENTLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA.

...NC/VA AND SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS MAY PERSIST FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT MORE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NC/VA AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW. HERE...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS MAY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SUPERCELL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE
FRONT.

..GUYER.. 07/06/2015



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