492
FXUS63 KABR 131126 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another batch of elevated smoke will move into northeastern SD
  and western MN today through this evening. South central South
  Dakota could see some surface smoke today.

- Precipitation chances return to the area Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday evening (40-70% chance), then again Thursday afternoon
  and evening (30-40% chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A shortwave currently over southern Saskatchewan will move southeast
across the North Dakota and into Minnesota today. The main impact
from this shortwave will be increasing elevated smoke across the
northeast portion of the CWA today into tonight. Near surface smoke
can be expected at times today, mainly across central SD, and over
the far northeast corner of the CWA.

An upper level trough currently over the Pacific NW will track
eastward across the northern Rockies today, and into the western
Dakotas later tonight. Various CAMS show showers moving into the
far western CWA after 6Z Tuesday, with little eastward movement
until after 12Z, or perhaps closer to 18Z. The trough and
associated surface low pressure system progress eastward Tuesday
afternoon, with pcpn spreading eastward toward the James River
valley before 0Z Wednesday. Overall, the eastern half of the CWA
has at least an 80- 90 percent chance of seeing dry conditions on
Tuesday. The western half of the CWA has a 20-70 percent chance of
seeing showers and weak thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper level trough will slowly track across the region Tuesday
night through Thursday night. Some weak energy will move through
Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a more potent shortwave moving
through Thursday afternoon/evening. Ridging builds over the region
Friday and Saturday before a more zonal flow develops on Sunday.

At the surface, a frontal boundary will be over central South Dakota
Tuesday evening, with precipitation likely ongoing. Chances for
precipitation (40-60%) will continue along the front as it tracks
eastward through the day Wednesday. The most likely time for a
stronger storm or two would be Tuesday evening across central South
Dakota where MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and 30 to 35 knots of bulk
shear develop. Instability will be little to none after that late
Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure settles in over the area
Wednesday night. Another front will track across the area on
Thursday, and in association with the aforementioned shortwave, will
be the focus for precipitation Thursday afternoon and evening. There
is potential for some stronger storms with this system as MUCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 50 to 75 knots develop during the
evening hours, mainly across the western two thirds of the CWA. The
models are all hinting at additional precipitation chances Friday
through Sunday, but are all over the place with the timing and
location, so will just stick with some small POPs during this time
until a clearer solution comes together.

High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, in
the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday, in the 70s Friday and Saturday,
and in the mid to upper 60s Sunday. Overnight lows will be mainly in
the 40s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Wildfire smoke from Canada will be over the area this morning,
with the potential for it to reach close enough to the surface to
reduce vsbys into the MVFR category across far northeastern South
Dakota and west central Minnesota this morning, including at KATY.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and
tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin