Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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014 FXUS64 KAMA 290525 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Latest radar imagery has a few showers and thunderstorms across northeastern New Mexico, with the best updraft currently west- southwest of Clayton. CAMs continue to suggest some of these showers or storms may reach the western Panhandles before diminishing later this evening, so have slightly expanded PoPs across the west and northwest. Some thunder has been observed with some of the cells so have added thunder mentions to the ongoing forecast as well. After sunset, the thunder threat should greatly diminish and the coverage of any showers and/or storms should also decrease. If any storms move into our area, lightning, sporadic gusty winds, and small hail would be possible with the strongest updrafts. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to make a run a the northwest CWA late this afternoon and evening. Most of the showers and storms should dissipate by sunset, but there is a weak disturbance that moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle that could help keep some of the activity going overnight. At any rate, not expecting much precipitation from any showers or storms that would happen to move across our northern CWA. Surface winds converge along a trough in the eastern CWA by Monday afternoon. Surface moisture is not the greatest, but if a well timed disturbance can move across, then there could be a thunderstorm or two across the northeast CWA Monday afternoon. Lows tonight are expected to be mainly in the 40`s. However, there could be a few upper 30`s in the northwest with a few lower 50`s in the southeast. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid 70`s in the northwest to the mid 80`s in the southeast. && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Warm temperatures expected Tue and Wed with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s possible. Thu through Fri are looking to have cooler behind a frontal passage. Fri being the coolest with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. Sat may potentially rebound into the lower 80s once again. Still some uncertainty out in Day 7. As far as precipitation goes, Wed through Thu morning a dryline may set up over the area again with many ingredients for a severe storm potential for the eastern combined Panhandles. This is looking like only a potential once again, as one ingredient may still fall short with storms unable to initiate in the first place. It is still quite early to tell how far west the dryline will actually be and whether a cap will be in play to minimize storm production. Have left NBM PoPs in for now with which give 20 to 40 percent to the southeastern third to half of the FA Wed afternoon. NBM only gives a 10 pop the night before on Tue, this will have to be monitored as some guidance suggests some possible thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Tue as well. Thu storm chances will all depend on the progression of the front. If the front can move in slower and keep the dryline in the east longer some thunderstorms may be possible in the far eastern Panhandles on Thu as well. Fri through Sat showers and thunderstorms may be possible also, depending on the nature and progression of the H5 trough that brings the initial front on Thu with more CAA on Fri. Some of the models suggests this initial upper level trough moves off but is followed by additional shortwave troughs impacting the area late Fri into the weekend. 36 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions are extremely likely (95%) to prevail over the next 24 hours at all sites, with an incredibly small chance for a visibility reduction at DHT due to a passing shower over the next few hours but, even if rain occurs, VFR conditions are still favored to prevail. Ferguson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 82 51 89 56 / 0 0 0 10 Beaver OK 83 53 93 55 / 10 0 0 10 Boise City OK 77 46 86 45 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 86 53 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 83 49 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 81 50 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 83 54 91 58 / 0 0 10 10 Dalhart TX 79 44 88 44 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 80 47 90 48 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 82 50 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 83 55 93 58 / 10 10 10 10 Pampa TX 82 53 90 58 / 0 0 10 10 Shamrock TX 83 55 91 60 / 10 0 10 10 Wellington TX 84 55 91 60 / 10 0 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...77