613
FXUS64 KAMA 281141
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A weak cold front has been cruising south through the area
tonight, bringing in a marginally cooler air mass with northwest
winds. The upper level system associated with yesterday`s gusty
conditions and severe weather will continue to lift northward
over the Plains today, leaving the Panhandles with a beautiful
spring Sunday. Winds will only be 10-20 mph, and high temperatures
this afternoon should range from upper 60s across the northwest
to upper 70s in the southeast.

The far northwest to north central combined Panhandles could see
some very light showers late this evening into the overnight hours
when a minor shortwave disturbance passes overhead. Dry air will
remain prevalent however, amounting to only a 10-20% chance for
measurable rainfall. Subtle ridging aloft takes over Monday,
allowing for the start of a much warmer week. Light south winds
and highs in the 80s will return for most of the forecast area as
a result.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Tuesday will be a warm and dry day as zonal flow will continue
across the Panhandles.  Highs will almost be 90 across the board on
Tuesday, with a couple of isolated areas in the upper 80s. Overall,
winds will be tame in the 15 to 20 mph range with fairly low RH
values. This will provide elevated to low end critical Fire Weather
conditions.  Wednesday will almost be a carbon copy to Tuesday
temperature wise, but we are seeing signs of the dryline backing
into the central Panhandles, and that will bring us the chance of
showers and storms, possibly severe for the central and eastern
Panhandles Wednesday evening.  NBM pops have about a 20 to 30 percent
chance for storms in the east on Wednesday evening, and that will
suffice for the time being.

Thursday`s highs will be a challenge as it all depends on how fast
the next system moves through.  Right now most highs are based on
nearly optimum heating for most areas, as the front may not move
through until after 1 pm for the OK Panhandle.  That will give ample
time for most areas to warm up.  Position of the trough and residual
moisture will play a role in the pop potential, but for now keeping
NBM`s 20-30 percent for the southeast in the afternoon, and for the
rest of the Panhandles during the evening hours.  Most likely this
will be isolated to widely scattered showers if we do get anything,
so it`s not looking that great for areas in the central an western
Panhandles.  The front looks pretty strong given the nearly 20C
850mb temperature drop, and therefore would expect strong wind
behind this front, with the winds relaxing after sunrise on Friday.
Again, overnight showers will be possible as well, depending on the
track and position of the system. Highs on Friday only be in the
upper 60s to near 70.  Saturday will likely return to the upper 70s
to lower 80s as zonal flow with warmer air returns.  NBM is giving
some pops on Saturday, but overall it looks contingent on a
shortwave moving through helping to kick off some storms.  So
confidence is not very high in the pops.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions should be in place at all sites throughout the
period. The only contingency is if low to mid clouds approaching
KDHT and KGUY are able to become more widespread than currently
forecast. In this case, some occasional MVFR ceilings may exist
occasionally this period. Otherwise, expect light northwest winds
becoming lighter and more variable overnight.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73  47  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  72  43  82  53 /  10  10  10   0
Boise City OK              68  41  77  46 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  76  48  85  54 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              74  45  83  49 /   0  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  73  46  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               74  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 70  40  79  43 /  10  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  70  42  81  47 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                75  46  82  49 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                74  46  82  55 /  10  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   73  48  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                76  49  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              77  49  84  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...38