Text Products for ESF Issued by APX

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions: 1 2 3
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FGUS73 KAPX 151728
ESFAPX
MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-097-
101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-161728-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1228 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

THE SPRING 2024 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A
BELOW AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT WITHIN MAJOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...
RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS.

THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING FLOOD
STAGE (MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS
FOR THE SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  THE CURRENT (CS) AND
HISTORICAL (HS) PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND
MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED
ON HISTORICAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.  WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOODING
               Valid Period:  02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Manistee River
Sherman             15.0   16.0   17.0 :   6   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B    7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Au Sable River
Red Oak              7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rifle River
Sterling             6.0   11.0   13.0 :  44   62   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pine River
Rudyard             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tobacco River
Beaverton           12.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS) AND
THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS).  FOR EXAMPLE...THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR
STERLING...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET...HAS A 44 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 18 PERCENTAGE POINTS
BELOW NORMAL.  DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICAL
PROBABILITY OF THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS
62 PERCENT.

THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD
RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW
FORECAST):

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Manistee River
Sherman              12.7   12.9   13.2   13.8   14.2   14.6   15.1
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B     3.9    4.0    4.1    4.4    4.7    4.9    5.1
:Au Sable River
Red Oak               3.7    3.9    4.3    4.7    5.3    5.8    6.1
:Rifle River
Sterling              3.9    4.2    4.5    5.6    6.8    8.1    8.6
:Pine River
Rudyard               4.2    4.9    6.4    7.7    9.5   10.4   10.9
:Tobacco River
Beaverton             5.0    5.4    5.8    6.3    7.1    8.7    9.2

CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AT ANY
GIVE LOCATION ARE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION
COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD
(LOW FLOW FORECAST):

...TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Manistee River
Sherman              11.7   11.7   11.6   11.5   11.4   11.3   11.2
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B     3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.3
:Au Sable River
Red Oak               3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9
:Rifle River
Sterling              1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5
:Pine River
Rudyard               1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Tobacco River
Beaverton             2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3


SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN
ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST
VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30
OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT RIVER
LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.
ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF FUTURE
CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS (SUCH AS
SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING SNOWFALL) OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL MONTHS OF 2023 (SEPTEMBER THROUGH
NOVEMBER) WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...TRENDING BELOW NORMAL (50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL) CLOSER
TO SAGINAW BAY.  BUT THE OBVIOUS FACTOR IN THE BELOW NORMAL
PROBABILITIES FOR SPRING FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN HAS BEEN
THE OVERALL LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH LATE WINTER.  SNOWFALL THUS
FAR SINCE JULY 1 IS RUNNING ABOUT 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THOUGH
A LOT OF THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD OF JANUARY 9-23 WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THEIR SEASONAL TOTAL THUS
FAR IN JUST THAT TWO WEEK PERIOD.  THIS COMBINED WITH A TOP TEN
WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD...AND WHAT SO FAR IS SETTING UP TO BE A
RECORD WARMEST FEBRUARY (TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 11 TO 14 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 14)...HAS RESULTED IN A MINIMAL AMOUNT
OF SNOW COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  AS OF
FEBRUARY 12 (PRIOR TO THE AREA WIDE SNOWFALL OCCURRING ON 15 FEBRUARY)...
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOWPACK THAT DOES EXIST (PRIMARILY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SOIL MOISTURE IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  SOIL
MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.  CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS BASED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR FEBRUARY 15
INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS
WELL AS ACROSS MANISTEE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.

MOST GAGING STATIONS ON AREA RIVERS ARE RUNNING AT NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF ICE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE WARM WEATHER.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY
INDICATES 40 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
AND AN OVERALL TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  THE OUTLOOK FOR
THE MONTH OF MARCH IS CALLING FOR A HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
AN UPDATED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 29.
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN IN THE ABOVE
TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR MORE
RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION
GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON
NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.

$$

JPB
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
