028
FNUS73 KAPX 060759
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Fietcher...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
359 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Some wisps of high clouds this morning should give way
to sun-filled skies at the burn site today. Efficient warming/mixing
this afternoon with high temperatures in the low 70s and RHs falling to
near-critical levels. Calm winds this morning turn east-southeast for
the afternoon, generally below 10 mph. An inland penetrating lake breeze
off of Lake Michigan is expected to develop this afternoon, but confidence
is low that it`ll reach as far inland as the burn site today before
dissipating early this evening. If it does reach the burn location, an
abrupt wind shift out of the north/northwest can be expected.

Good RH recovery tonight as temperatures cool back into the 30s. Increasing
clouds expected Tuesday with shower/storm chances arriving late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........25 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......4900-6400 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (393.0-515.0).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   2   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............64  66  68  71  72  72
RH..............40  36  32  28  25  25
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...4.9 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.4
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   7   8   8
Vrate kt-ft.....393 461 486 430 515 513
Ventrate Cat....PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost after 3
                    am.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........89 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5000-5800 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1600 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (31.0-402.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   3   5   7   7   6   5   4   4   3
Weather cov.....                                        ARS ARS
Weather type....                                        FST FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............70  67  64  60  55  51  47  45  42  39  36  35
RH..............30  34  40  44  53  59  65  65  70  76  85  89
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.12  12  12  12  12  12  9   9   9   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...5.8 5.0 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   7   12  12  12  10  9   9   9   9   9   10
Vrate kt-ft.....402 345 178 72  56  50  39  35  34  34  31  36
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning. Chance of rain showers late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........34 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 18 mph shifting to the southeast 20
                    to 23 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1800 ft AGL increasing to 2400-3600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (33.0-504.0) increasing to fair to
                    good (558.0-828.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........7      14     5      26     56     73
Weather cov.....AREAS                       CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....FROST  NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............36     43     57     64     67     67
RH..............85     70     45     37     34     39
20 ft wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..8      8      13     14     14     14
20 ft wind gust.12     12     21     22     22     22
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1800   3100   3600   3000
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..E 9    E 13   SE 20  SE 22  SE 23  SE 23
Vrate kt-ft.....33     64     361    672    828    698
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413224.0/APX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov