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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W and 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from
04N22W, to 02N28W 03N37W 01N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to 240 nm to the
south of the line 08N13W 07N20W 05N26W 05N33W 05N38W 06N51W
07N54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary passes through SW Alabama, to the coastal
plains of Mississippi, to SE Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf
coast, to south central Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the inland areas and in the
coastal plains and the coastal waters from the middle Texas Gulf
coast to the Deep South of Texas. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds are to the north of the line that runs from the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico to the coastal areas of the Tampa Florida
metropolitan area.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the Straits of Florida,
and in the SW quadrant of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower
winds are in the rest of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
from 78W eastward. Moderate and slower winds are elsewhere.
Moderate seas are from 20.5N to 26N from 90W westward. Slight seas
are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure extending across the basin from the western
Atlantic will begin to shift eastward tonight as a rather weak
cold front approaches the NW Gulf coast. Winds will generally
remain at gentle to moderate speeds throughout tonight into early
Sun. Winds will pulse fresh to strong this evening near the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front is forecast to move
into the NW Gulf late tonight into early Sun, then reach the
southeastern Gulf Mon evening as it weakens. Fresh to locally
strong winds and building seas will follow the front through Sun
night, with fresh to strong winds persisting near Veracruz through
Mon evening. High pressure will again settle over the region by
Tue and change little through Thu night. The pressure gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressure over the southern
Plains is expected to increase SE winds in the western Gulf
starting on Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N69W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 78W eastward. Moderate and
slower winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas are from the Windward
Passage eastward, and from the NW corner of Jamaica toward the
Isla de la Juventud of Cuba. Slight seas are in the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea.

Broad high pressure north of the basin will support pulsing fresh
to locally strong winds near the Windward Passage, south of the
Dominican Republic, and near the coast of northern Colombia
through early Sun. Similar winds will return and pulse near
northern Colombia Mon evening through Wed evening. Winds pulse to
fresh speeds near northern Colombia Thu evening. Winds will pulse
to moderate to locally fresh in the northwestern Caribbean through
early Sun, then again in the mornings through Thu. Gentle to
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere along with slight to
moderate seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 48-hour marine forecast consists of: a 1008 mb low pressure
center to be near 32N33.5W, just to the north of the area. Expect
NW to N strong to near gale-force winds, and rough to very rough
seas in NW to N swell, from 28N to 31N between 35W and 40W. Expect
elsewhere: moderate or slower winds, and rough seas in mixed
swell, from 27N to 31N between 35W and 42W.

A surface trough is along 31N37W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center
that is near 26N50W, to 20N55W 17N60W, through Guadeloupe, to
14N64W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward
between 30W and 45W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are in the remainder of the areas that are
within 600 nm to the east and southeast of the surface trough.

Moderate seas are to the south of the line that is from 23N at
the coast of Africa, to 23N30W 18N40W 16N53W 16N60W; to the north
of the line that is from 31N35W 26N38W 23N52W 23N60W. Slight to
moderate seas are from 25N northward from 20W eastward, and
between 60W and 70W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are between Africa and
the line 32N10W 25N20W, to 13N23W just to the south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to the
line 25N27W 19N43W 16N60W; and from 17N to 27N between 50W and the
SE Bahamas. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N69W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the west of the 1014 mb low pressure
center. A surface ridge extends from a 33N27W 1020 mb high
pressure center, to 20N37W, to the coast of French Guiana
near 05N52W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east
and to the southeast of the surface trough.

High pressure over the region will remain through Sun night
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A cold front is
forecast to move over the waters east of northeast Florida Sun
night, then reach from 31N72W to near Jupiter, Florida Mon
evening, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Tue evening, from
near Bermuda to the southeastern Bahamas Wed evening, then weaken
to a nearly stationary trough on Thu and Thu night from 31N62W to
25N65W and to near the Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong winds,
locally near gale-force near 31N, are forecast to accompany the
front N of 27N through Tue, along with building seas. Otherwise,
seas will be mainly slight to moderate throughout.

$$
mt/jl