Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 262332 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
632 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The base of a large scale trough is just upstream and is
providing a few ripples in the mid-level flow over the CWA.
However, the atmosphere is relatively dry with surface high
pressure in local control, so there isn`t a whole lot for the
upper pattern to work with. Nonetheless, the models have managed
to squeeze out a few showers tonight south of the Rio Grande and
just briefly over the Upper Valley. However, the chances are low
and I have not kept any significant precip mention in the
forecast. By Wednesday, large scale ridging will be building over
the area. Light to moderate northeast to east winds will turn to
east to southeast from tonight to Wednesday night under an
increasing mix of clouds and sun. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal. 50s at night and the upper 70s to near 80
tomorrow, Wednesday. Persistent, enhanced wave heights and the
full moon will support a continued moderate rip current risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Initially a quasi-zonal flow with shortwave ridging impacting the
CWA will prevail early in the extended period. After a cool
morning on Thu, highs in the afternoon will be around normal for
late March. Could see some fog on Thu morning given the excellent
radiational cooling conditions and just enough surface-based
moisture. The flow will become increasingly meridional by the
weekend as a potent closed low pressure area swings southeastward
from the E Pacific into California. The net result for our CWA
will be a more typical Spring synoptic pattern yielding dry, warm
and breezy/windy conditions beginning on Fri. The latest NBM per
DESI now indicates that a greater than 50% probability exists for
a wind advisory for portions of the CWA (mainly the Lower Valley)
on Fri. Another potential wind advisory event may occur on Mon due
to the additive effects from an enhanced thermal gradient and a
1000 mb surface low pressure area occurring across Mexico. DESI
has lower probabilities at this time for Mon`s potential wind
advisory event but these values are expected to increase as we get
closer to Mon. Conditions over the weekend are expected to be
below wind advisory criteria but still expecting gusts between 30
and 40 mph, especially across the favored locations such as the
Lower and Mid Valley regions. As for temperatures, a continued
warming trend is expected through Mon given the persistent
moderate to occasionally strong south to southeast flow. Mon is
expected to be downright hot as the flow will veer to a more
southerly direction bringing in hotter continental air. As a
result most of the CWA on Mon will be in the 90s with even some
100 degree readings expected across the Rio Grande Plains.

A surface trough and cold front will move into the CWA on Tue as the
main trough axis lifts eastward from the Intermountain West into
the Plains. The passage of the surface trough before the actual
cold front will still allow for another very warm to hot day on
Tue. Again, widespread 90s are expected on Tue albeit not quite as
warm as Mon`s high temperatures. Limited dynamics and moisture
along and in advance of the front will keep POPs close to nil. The
main front will surge through the CWA by Tue evening as cooler
high pressure surges southward through the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
with mostly clear skies and light winds turning northeasterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...High pressure will generally
remain in control over the Northwest Gulf. Moderate Winds will come
from the northeast and east, possibly even shifting to southeast
Wednesday night as high pressure reorients. Moderate wave heights
will skirt but not quite reach small craft advisory criteria
offshore tonight, remaining more at small craft should exercise
caution levels.  Small craft may need to exercise caution Wednesday
on the Laguna Madre and Nearshore waters.

Thursday through Tuesday...The gradient southeast flow will
increase through Friday night in response to developing low
pressure on the Lee side of the Rockies. We will likely see
marginal small craft advisory conditions for the Laguna Madre on
Fri and perhaps the nearshore waters north of Port Mansfield. The
gradient southeast flow over the weekend will be more in the
realm of caution criteria rather than advisory criteria for the
Laguna Madre. Another marginal SCA even will be possible for the
Laguna Madre on Mon as the southerly gradient tightens again. Seas
by this time will be around 6 feet given the sustained moderate
to occasionally strong flow across the W Gulf. The passage of the
surface trough and cold front late Tue will shift winds to north
to northwest. SCA conditions would appear to be likely and more
widespread by Tue night given the cold air advection and
increasing pressure gradient from the high pressure area surging
southward across the coastal waters behind the front.

Could see some patchy sea fog develop as early as Sat night or Sun
across the nearshore waters mainly north of Port Mansfield as
higher surface moisture advects over the "cooler" shelf waters.
This should be less of a concern by Mon as the flow veers a bit
more in the southerly direction and also by that time the SSTs
will have warmed up by at least a degree or two and thus further
limiting the sea fog potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             61  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               58  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 59  83  57  85 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         56  79  54  84 /   0  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  73  63  74 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     62  76  57  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....80-MB
AVIATION...56-Hallman


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