686
FXUS61 KBUF 101431
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1031 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wavy frontal boundary to our south will keep some rain across the
area through tonight. The most persistent chances for wet weather
will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Cool and
unsettled weather will generally remain in place for much of the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure wave continuing to develop over the Mid Atlantic
region along nearly stationary frontal boundary extending back
through the Ohio Valley. Area of rain north of the boundary will
expand northward today as an inverted trough north of the surface
wave gradually shifts westward through the region. The better
coverage of steadier rain will focus across the Southern Tier
and Finger Lakes tapering down to scattered showers across the
Niagara Frontier and toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. Cloud
cover, rain and a north to northeast low level flow will keep
temperatures below average with much of the area only reaching
in the 50s for afternoon highs.

A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area tonight,
accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow the
showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to east,
although some spotty showers should persist from the Genesee Valley
eastward. Lows temperatures will be a little cooler than the
previous night with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level trough will dig into the eastern Great Lakes region
Saturday. An associated area of low pressure over Lower Michigan
will slowly move towards western NY. Initially, mostly dry weather is
expected Saturday morning. A few showers will remain possible from
residual moisture from a departing mid-level trough east of Lake
Ontario. Strong ascent and modest moisture will enter western NY by
Saturday afternoon. Showers will increase in coverage, while
additional showers may develop along a prefrontal trough across
central and north central NY through the afternoon. Unfavorable
conditions for thunderstorms due to cool and cloudy conditions with
a weak wind field. However, due to the sharp trough digging into the
region during peak heating, a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
across the western Southern Tier into Saturday evening. Rainfall
amounts will average 0.10-0.25 inches Saturday through Saturday
night. Higher amounts expected in any thunderstorms across the
western Southern Tier.

The mid-level trough will catch up with the surface reflection and
this stacked system will weaken as it sits over the forecast area
Saturday night. Showers will be possible across most of the region
overnight. Drier air may limit shower chances across the Niagara
Frontier. The mid-level trough outruns the low-level low and moves
east of the region Sunday. The surface low will continue to weaken
across the forecast area. Unfortunately this will lead to another
cool and mostly cloudy day with low chances for light showers.
Ridging and warm air advection will result in dry weather Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging will move into the eastern Great Lakes as another potent
shortwave moves across the Central Plains Monday. A warm front will
move through the forecast area and showers and a few thunderstorms
are possible Monday through Monday night. Weak troughing will move
into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday through Wednesday. A
cold front will slowly cross the forecast area and unsettled
conditions will persist into mid-week.

There is good agreement that ridging will move into the Great Lakes
region while a large area of high pressure extends from eastern
Canada to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night through
Thursday. Dry weather is likely across the forecast area during this
time.

Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Areas of rain and MVFR CIGS will expand across much of the area
today. Areas of IFR conditions are expected across the higher
terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region,
including areas of fog in these same areas which may reduce VSBY
down into the IFR at times as well. Exception will be toward Niagara
County (KIAG) where they may escape with no lower than low VFR CIGS
(3-5kft). Mainly VFR is expected toward the Saint Lawrence Valley,
with low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) expected toward KART, and MVFR CIGS
across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario from late morning on.

Outlook...

Tonight...MVFR to VFR conditions from west to east, with lingering
rain showers also ending from west to east.
Saturday...VFR CIGS deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood
for showers.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15
knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at
times moderate chop through today. However, there are no Small Craft
conditions forecast.

Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the
rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced
southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front
approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA