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000
FXUS61 KBUF 160228
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure passing across the region will provide fair dry
weather through Tuesday. Unsettled weather will return by midweek...
as a weakening area of broad low pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Expansive high pressure centered over the Canadian prairies
will gradually nose across the Lower Great Lakes through
Tuesday. This will guarantee a period of fair dry weather
through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over Hudson Bay will extend south across
the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night. As this area of high
pressure slides east, a weakening low pressure system is
expected to slowly move across the Midwest and into the Great
Lakes region Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, it will be
engulfed by a secondary low pressure system over Manitoba,
leading to a shallow but stubborn upper level troughing pattern
across much of the Northeast.

This system will ease a pair of warm frontal boundaries through
the forecast area from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday,
followed by a increasingly diffuse cold front late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. While Tuesday night will be dry
with increasing clouds as surface high pressure remains in
control over the region, rain chances will ramp up from the west
by Wednesday morning as a plume of Gulf moisture gets pulled
northward into the region. The main warm frontal boundary is
expected to slow, if not completely stalling out over the
region as it runs up against the strong ridge over New England.
This will likely cause sharply lower rain chances Wednesday for
the North Country compared to areas south of Lake Ontario and
western New York.

System cold front works in from the west Wednesday night and
Thursday bringing another round of showers. Better instability
parameters ahead and along this front could bring a few
embedded thunderstorms to Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night. Far western New York is then expected to begin drying
out by Thursday evening.

Temperatures through the midweek timeframe will heavily depend on
the timing of the frontal passages and precipitation, although
temperatures should average on the mild side both Wednesday and
Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large low pressure system will be in the process of stacking
in the vicinity of James Bay on Friday. This increasingly
positively tilted trough associated with the system will swing
a pair of cold fronts through the region between Friday and
Saturday. This will lead to renewed chances for rain showers by
the end of the week as well as a day-to- day cooling trend from
Friday into the weekend. Showers should taper off with less
coverage from late Saturday morning through Sunday. Monday
should also be mainly dry, but a few sprinkles or showers can`t
be completely ruled out as a quick moving shortwave trough
crosses the area. But a sfc high over the region and the lack of
synoptic moisture should limit the potential for any precip.

Temperatures will start out above normal for Friday, but will cool
to around 5 degrees below normal for the weekend. Temperatures start
to warm back to normal on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair VFR weather is assured through the TAF period...as high
pressure centered over central Canada will extend across the Lower
Great Lakes by midday Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the lakes through Tuesday. Winds will
be light and variable on Lake Erie with an onshore flow developing
by Tuesday afternoon. Winds on Lake Ontario will diminish by Tuesday
morning with an onshore flow developing by Tuesday afternoon.

Elevated easterly winds and small craft conditions should develop on
Lake Ontario, especially on the western end ahead of an approaching
warm front by Wednesday. Winds turn more southerly on both lakes
behind the warm front by Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...PP/TMA
LONG TERM...PP/SW
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA