333
FXUS65 KBYZ 030849
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
249 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday night...

Today southeast Montana will still be under the influence of a
500mb trough keeping temperatures on the cool side in the 50s F
for most. Cyclonic flow on the back side of the low will keep some
precipitation chances (20%) and clouds across much of the area
today. Any precipitation is expected to remain light with NBM
showing most of the region having a <10% chance of getting 0.10
inches of precipitation. Isobars will have a decent gradient on
the back side of the low bringing some breezy conditions during
the day as well. These breezy conditions will hold of until late
morning/early afternoon when low level lapse rates get steep
enough to mix down higher level winds. Most of the region will see
a 40-60% chance of seeing a wind gust over 40mph during the day
Friday. Due to the reliance on mix down, winds will die down
pretty quickly in the evening with the loss of surface heating.

Saturday will see a change in pattern with a shortwave ridge
making its way into the region bringing warmer temperatures and
clear skies. Most of the region will see temperatures in the 60s F
with clear skies. Saturday will see winds switch from northwest to
southerly as an upper level low starts to impact the region. Winds
will be strongest from the Wyoming border of Carbon County up
through Wheatland County where there is a 60-80% chance of seeing
a wind gust >40mph. Upper level ridging will keep things dry on
Saturday. Torgerson

Sunday through Thursday...

Models are in good agreement that a strong upper low over the
Nevada vicinity Sunday will push through Wyoming on Monday and
settle into the Dakotas by midweek. While the exact track and
details of how it all unfolds is still in question, cluster
analysis indicates high confidence that our region will see below
normal temps, quite windy conditions at times and possibly
significant precipitation. Lower elevations will see primarily
rain but elevations above 6500 ft could see substantial wet
snowfall.

Sunday will likely be a transition day with pre-frontal warming
pushing temps above normal with cooler, windy and possibly wet
conditions then taking over Sunday night through at least midweek.
The EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) currently points to our eastern
counties with 70-80% chance of seeing significant precipitation
compared to climatology (40-60% chance of >0.50 precip) as a
potentially powerful trowal feature sets up. Our western
mountains have up to a 75% chance of greater than six inches of
snowfall during this time as well.

This dynamic low will likely generate plenty of wind across
portions of our CWA, including strong southeast winds on our
eastern borders Sunday, southwest winds in our foothills by
Sunday evening, and peaking with strong northwest winds across the
entire region Tuesday. Gusts over 40 mph are likely (>75%) for
most areas Tuesday afternoon, with the corridor from northern
Rosebud to Carter County possibly seeing gusts up to 50 mph
(probability 50-70%).

After temps in the 70s to lower 80s Sunday ahead of the front, we
will see highs in the 50s to lower 60s Monday, and cooling to the
40s and 50s by Wednesday. By Thursday the models suggest the upper
low will slowly drift east, but we may see lingering bands of
precipitation across our east with temps mainly in the 50s.

Impacts: While our high country may see heavy wet snow at times,
the main impacts we are concerned about are the harsh combination
of wind and rain for people caught outside and especially for
young livestock. Make sure to stay up to date with the latest
forecast for your location as details emerge. BT

&&

.AVIATION...


Today will be cloudy with ceilings in the 4-5,000 foot range.
Scattered rain showers will bring a 20% chance of precipitation to
most of southeast Montana. Locations such as KSHR, KMLS, and KBHK
will see northwest winds gust into the 20s kts during the
afternoon before winds die down during the overnight. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 031/066 042/074 046/057 043/057 042/054 041/058
    1/E 00/U    02/R    46/R    44/R    56/R    56/R
LVM 051 028/064 042/066 040/052 037/051 035/050 036/053
    1/B 00/B    16/T    78/R    35/O    57/O    56/O
HDN 053 027/069 040/079 046/058 042/057 039/053 038/059
    2/O 00/U    02/R    37/R    55/R    56/R    66/R
MLS 050 028/064 042/081 051/063 042/053 037/052 040/060
    1/B 00/U    01/N    38/T    66/R    67/R    65/R
4BQ 051 028/066 043/080 050/060 040/054 038/050 037/057
    1/B 00/U    01/N    47/T    65/R    56/R    55/R
BHK 048 026/061 038/074 049/063 037/052 034/050 036/057
    1/N 00/U    01/N    47/T    77/R    66/R    55/R
SHR 050 026/066 038/077 042/055 039/056 037/052 036/054
    2/O 00/U    02/R    38/T    55/R    56/R    56/R

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings