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000
FXUS61 KCAR 221652
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1252 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area early this morning. High
pressure will build in this afternoon into tonight, then move
southeast Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Tuesday night,
cross the area Wednesday, then exit across the Maritimes
Wednesday night. High pressure will build across the region
later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:30 AM update...
Winds are beginning to become more westerly across the region.
Cumulus are dissipating and the showers previously near Quebec
City are weakening, so not expected to make it across the
border. Forecast has been updated to reflect current conditions
but otherwise remains on track.

Previous discussion...
An Arctic cold front will push across the north during the
predawn hours this morning then continue south pushing offshore
by mid-morning. Some snow showers may accompany the front across
the north. However, model consensus is that any snow shower
activity will diminish as the front continues south and east.
The air following the front is very dry with dewpoints expected
to be below zero over the north and in the single digits
Downeast by midday. This will result in the sky clearing rather
quickly behind the front to give us a mostly sunny but brisk and
cold day. Wind chills will be in the teens to low 20s over the
north and the 30s Downeast. Winds will quickly diminish tonight
as high pressure builds over. This will bring a cold and moonlit
night with lows from near 20 north to near 30 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move southeast of the region Tuesday with
mostly/partly sunny skies north, mostly sunny Downeast. Low
pressure approaches, from the west, Tuesday night along with
the supporting upper trof. Clouds will increase Tuesday night.
Rain chances will also increase later Tuesday night across
mostly western and northern portions of the forecast area. The
surface low will cross the region Wednesday, with the upper
trof starting to cross late. Expect precipitation in the form of
rain through early Wednesday afternoon. Colder air will then be
drawn south across the region in the wake of the low later
Wednesday afternoon. This will allow the rain to transition to
snow, or mix with snow, across northern and higher terrain areas
during the afternoon. Generally expect precipitation to remain
in the form of rain Downeast Wednesday, though a snow/rain mix
could begin to develop later in the afternoon. The surface low
exits across the Maritimes Wednesday night, while the upper trof
evolves into a closed low across the Maritimes. Colder air in
the wake of the surface low, along with the cold pool aloft with
the closing upper low, will allow a transition to snow across
the forecast area in the wake of the exiting system Wednesday
night. Snow accumulation are likely across northern and central
areas, along with higher terrain, before the snow tapers to snow
showers. However, snow totals are still uncertain dependent on
how much precipitation is able to wrap back into the colder air
around the exiting system. Also, ground temperatures could
result in melting snow which would limit accumulations.
Preliminary snow accumulation estimates later Wednesday into
Wednesday night are generally 1 to 3 inches across northern and
central areas with greater totals possible at high elevations.
Any snow accumulations Downeast are expected to be an inch or
less. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures
are expected Tuesday. The coolest temperatures Tuesday will
occur along the Downeast coast with onshore winds from the Gulf
of Maine. Below normal level temperatures are expected
Wednesday, with falling temperatures during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A disturbance rotating around the exiting upper low could clip
the region early Thursday. This could keep a slight
chance/chance of snow showers across mostly northern and
eastern areas early Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will
build across the region Thursday through Friday. Expect
partly/mostly sunny skies Thursday, with mostly clear skies
Thursday night through Friday night. High pressure will begin to
exit across the Maritimes Saturday. Low pressure will approach,
from the west, Saturday night with increasing clouds along with
a chance of rain. The low then crosses the region Sunday with a
chance of rain. Below normal level temperatures are expected
Thursday, returning to near normal levels Friday. Above normal
level temperatures are expected Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A brief period of MVFR conditions are possible with
the front very early this morning across the north. Some
westerly wind shear may also accompany the front first thing
this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today and
tonight. Winds WNW around 15 kt and very gusty today, quickly
diminishing early this evening to S around 5 kt.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday...VFR. South winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to
around 25 knots.

Tuesday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a chance of rain.
South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Rain mixing with,
or changing to, snow during the afternoon across northern areas.
South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR
late. Snow tapering to snow showers north. A snow/rain mix
tapering to snow showers Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 20
knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance to chance of snow
showers early. VFR during the afternoon. Northwest winds 10 to
20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots, diminishing to around
10 knots.

Thursday night through Friday..VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up for the offshore waters into midday
today for NW winds gusting up to 25 kt. Winds will diminish
this afternoon into tonight. Seas around 4 ft today dropping to
1 to 2 ft tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday
into Wednesday. Gale force wind gusts possible Wednesday night
into early Thursday. Rain Wednesday into Wednesday night. Also,
a chance of snow showers Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cold and dry today with gusty winds and relative humidities
dropping into the 20s will result in considerable drying of the
fine fuels. The cold conditions will make it difficult for fires
to start. However, any fire that does begin has the potential
to spread quickly. Tonight will be tranquil and cold. Tuesday
could be of greater concern with an increasing south wind along
with warmer temperatures. Afternoon relative humidities will be
around 30 percent inland from the immediate coast with mostly
sunny skies and temperatures will rebound to the low to mid 50s
Downeast with upper 50s across the north. Fine fuels will be
drier and the warmer temperatures will mean fires can ignite
more easily. Any fires can rapidly spread due to the southerly
winds.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/LF
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/LF/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/LF/Norcross
Fire Weather...