961
FXUS61 KCLE 301046
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
646 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue east across the local area today.
High pressure will build in behind this front for tonight into
Wednesday. A trough will pass through the region on Wednesday
night. A warm front will lift across the area on Thursday. A
cold front will move through Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain continues its slow propagation east across the area. The
rain timing is lagging behind about an hour or so from the
previous forecast but rain intensity is also waning as it
progresses eastward. Toned down thunder and could very well have
just omitted it altogether...

Previous Discussion...
A band of rain continues to slowly propagate eastward in a SSW
to NNE orientation ahead of a cold front, as a mid-level
vorticity maximum moves northeast across the region. Rain and
perhaps some embedded thunder will move across the area this
morning and have retained high PoPs with an additional up to
one-quarter of an inch of rain expected. Rain will push east of
the area during the afternoon as the surface front advances across
the forecast area and have PoPs decreasing to dry. High pressure
will build in quickly behind the front for tonight into Wednesday,
as some upper level ridging builds across the Great Lakes
region. This will continue to promote a dry forecast through the
end of the near term period. Temperatures are cooler already
from 24 hours ago and will fall slightly with the cold front, so
high temperatures may occur earlier in the day for eastern
sites. With the aggression of the high pressure coming back and
the return flow across the region, temperatures could recover
back into the low-to-mid 70s for Northwest and North Central
Ohio. Clearing and high pressure across the region tonight will
allow for lows in the lower 50s and perhaps upper 40s. Return
flow on Wednesday will allow for warm temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will amplify over the Upper
Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday night into
Thursday. At the surface, a weak area of high pressure will stretch
from the Great Lakes region into Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. High
temperatures Thursday afternoon will continue to be above average for
early May with upper 70s closer to the lakeshore and lower 80s
inland. The low level surface winds will be relatively weak and
variable on Thursday which will allow for a lake breeze to develop
and drift inland from the lakeshore later Thursday afternoon and
evening.

The surface high will move towards the Northeast Region of the CONUS
by Friday. A southeast to southerly low level flow will return late
Thursday night into Friday. An upper level trough will swing through
the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes region on Friday. An
area of low pressure will track through the Upper Great Lakes region
Friday with a trailing weak cold front. This front will push through
the area Friday afternoon and evening with scattered rain showers
likely and embedded thunderstorms possible. The thermodynamics looks
relatively weak for any organized convection. High temperatures will
again be very warm ahead of the front Friday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. The weak front will slow down and perhaps stall out near
the area Friday night keeping rain chances in the forecast through
this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The forecast for this weekend has become a little more uncertain and
not clear cut with the forecast guidance showing a weak front
stalling out near by or just east of the area on Saturday. We have
bumped up POPs for Saturday with the slow moving or stalled front in
the region. High temperatures will be knocked down a little bit into
the lower and middle 70s this weekend due to added cloud cover and
rain chances. We will maintain scattered POPs for Sunday as well
with the frontal boundary drifting a little further eastward from
the area. We may be in between systems on Monday with a slight drier
trend and lower rain chances. Another weak front and weather system
may arrive by next Tuesday with slightly higher rain chances. Above
average temperatures are expected to continue into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A band of rain continues through the airspace this morning and
has finally reached the KCLE, KMFD, and KCAK terminals. Rain is
largely VFR and only some brief, fleeting MVFR has followed the
rain this morning. Have VFR rain with some brief MVFR ceilings
as the theme of the TAFs. However, the MVFR could be overdone a
bit. The front will cross the area and ceilings will lift and
then scatter out to clearing conditions. Winds through the
period will be generally light and will shift from the south to
the west with the frontal passage.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Weather conditions regarding winds and waves on the lake look
relatively quiet for the rest of this week into the weekend. West to
southwest 5 to 12 knots are expected behind a weakening cold front
today. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots are expected tonight and
Wednesday with high pressure building over the lake. Light and
variable winds are expected Wednesday night underneath the surface
high pressure. Winds will shift from the East at 8 to 12 knots
Thursday briefly before a warm front lifts across the lake Thursday
night. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots return Friday. A weak cold
front will push across the lake Friday night into early Saturday.
Variable winds will remain around 10 knots or less into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Griffin