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000
FXUS61 KCTP 251819
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
219 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry cool and dry conditions with
widespread frost and freeze conditions expected Friday morning,
Clouds will increase late Friday leading to a chance of showers
Friday night and into the weekend before it turns much warmer
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Partial clearing has worked into my southern counties this
afternoon with still mostly cloudy conditions over the Laurel
Highlands thanks to weak upslope flow and stubborn inversion.
This trend will continue tonight as strong sfc high builds over
eastern PA and return (locally upslope) flow arrives over
western PA. The result will be another chilly night with better
radiative cooling conditions over central and southeast portions
of central PA than last night, while upslope cloudiness keeps
clouds in play over the southwest. Coordinated another round of
Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories for tonight where the
growing season has begun, with highest confidence for freezes
over the NW Mountains. The Lower Susq will radiate efficiently
and local cold spots like THV may approach 32F, but feel that
most areas of York and Lancaster County will range between 33F
and 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be another fair day under the influence of
retreating high pressure, with return flow freshening over
western areas, and especially the Laurel Highlands. Rain free
wx conditions will continue with morning sun mixing with high
clouds throughout the day and max temps trending warmer into
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Showers along a warm front are
likely to move into the western Alleghenies very late Fri night
or early Saturday morning based on the latest operational
model/ens consensus.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front arriving to the area on Saturday will bring about a
period of unsettled weather for the daytime hours on Saturday
and Sunday. Guidance does suggest showers will be scattered and
will not occur throughout the entire day with lower chances of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some elevated
instability will allow for potential thunderstorms on Sunday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

An upper-level ridge is expected to win for the early stages of
next week, allowing for drier weather and warmer temps with
MaxTs surging through the 70s and perhaps topping 80F across
the south on Sunday. The warmest day of the extended period will
be Monday as temperatures soar into the 80s areawide.

Precipitation will be tough to come by in the extended period as
systems from the Plains will struggle to stay together as they
approach central PA. The 7-day precipitation forecasts show
very little rainfall across southeast PA through the middle of
next week, with the best chances of rain coming on Tuesday as a
cold front moves across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conds prevail central and north with MVFR cigs lifting at
KJST. There is high confidence in VFR conditions persisting
for most of the area through the 18Z TAF period as the area
will remain under high pressure. The exception will be the
Laurel Highlands and KJST, where upslope flow may induce MVFR
cigs again late tonight into Friday morning. OTRW, VFR conds are
expected through Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thu Night-Fri...Predominantly VFR conds under high pressure.

Fri night-Sat...Patchy rain developing from west to east.

Sun...Isold SHRA/TSRA possible.

Mon...Predominantly VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fuel moisture may fall below 10% over the next two days. With
light winds today, the risk of fire spread remains very low.
However, return flow around departing high pressure on Friday
may increase the potential for spread on Friday afternoon.

MinRH this afternoon (Thu) is forecast to drop to 15-25% over
the northern half of the area with potential downside to 10%.
MinRH over the southern tier districts along the MD line is
forecast between 30-40%. The wind will <10 mph from the
north/northeast.

MinRH is forecast to recover a bit Friday afternoon bottoming in
the 25-40% range. However, the wind will increase from the south
southeast with gusts to 20 mph at times over the higher terrain
along the southern Allegheny Plateau.

Increasing low level moisture/dewpoints along with some rain will
limit fire weather concerns this weekend.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ004-005-010-
011-017-018.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ019-024>028-
045-046-049>053-056-057-059-063-065-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB
AVIATION...DeVoir/Bauco
FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl